a flea and conscription to exodus of well educated men as begun. they refused to die for proteins. imperial ambitions, we ask on to the point protests and mos flight is russia finally turning on polluted. hello and welcome on to the point to let me introduce today's panel. maria mckeever, a journalist from a russia, currently living and working in berlin, an editor in chief of the russian language, tv channel, aust. best daniel breast. the correspondence for the german brought sheet a suit deutsch at sy tongue here in berlin, and a former correspondent in several eastern european countries including moscow. plus our very own roman con, from ankle, the w's a russia analyst joining us from the w's bon headquarters. oh, well come to you all it says start with is put in, keeps escalating. the referendums, shamrock random's, we have to say nuclear threats, annexations and e, possibly even sabotage of gas pipelines, even though that's not confirmed. so let's talk about the pipelines for a moment. and i'd like to start with you roman, in which way would russia benefit from blowing up these pipelines? well, i guess just a few points how russia could benefit benefit from with the most obvious is this a sense gosh, prizes in sky high. so they are high now extremely high, and they're still getting even higher and higher. so russia will profit from that. i'm not a legal expert, but i think this could lower the pressure on russia to deliver some gas and to fulfill its obligations because russia cannot say, i can say now, well, we don't know what happened. we weren't, we were, it will take time to investigate. we do not know whether we can point and say, for sure who did it. so when russia refused to take german turbines from siemens to deliver gas, it's one thing. now it's, it's a different story. of course, this will put enormous pressure on the society in western europe where people are taking to the streets to protest against high energy prices. and last but not least, i think this is also sending a signal to the west. look what we can do. we can heat your infrastructure under the sea, and there are important not just gas or oil pipelines, but also communication lines between united states, north america and europe. and russia couldn't could, to, could just hint at that. and so, and say, look, we can do it, maria, do you agree, is, is a put in trying to send a signal to the west here if it. so this is a very mad signal, i should say, because that means that he definitely believe west. that's where they are really eager to switch to other sources of energy and because it's very difficult. so the perry, it's, i mean, or almost impossible to repair all this stuff. and this is 1000000 billions of for so if he believes that and he decided physically tear up this connection, what does that mean? i mean, that means that he is in his bed very final phase of like of his beam as a president, as a leader over the country, burning the bridges, if you will. absolutely, absolutely. and this is very read news. and then the main question for me now, like will he use technical nuclear weapon? then we come to that in a moment. daniel, 1st, are you think it is possible or even likely that russia is behind these attacks on the gas pipelines? yes, i think it is very likely. of course we don't have any prove. no, we're some government has said so far that it was russia. i think it is likely. and the fact that russia denies it is no prove at all. russia has denied many things. why, why is it likely i think it helps russia right now in its main goal, her to create fear, to create fear and to destabilize the west, and to break the western front, supporting you current. that's the main goal right now, and it supports this goal. so i think, yes, it is very likely that russia did this. so and another move is of course, or the referendum drive them in ukraine. vladimir putin is pushing ahead with his plans to annex large parts of ukraine. these so called referendums, in areas of ukraine that are controlled by russia just as late as move. these are the images that russia wants the world to see, pull at pulling stations, exercising their right to vote, and saying what bruton wants to hear. oh, this means a lot to us because we are russians by nature. and now i hope we will become russians for real. but we are with russia. russia is with us. wondering with anyone who doesn't want or is unable to visit a polling station will be visited by an election worker who will go to their homes to collect their ballads. it's difficult for residents in russian control territories to avoid voting for some ukrainians. it became the perfect time to leave these territories once and for all. but a shame is leveled in the proverb, superman, as upon the, the referendum is a violation of international law, but it is a legal multiple and we hear that people in the occupied areas are forced to vote at gunpoint. some of them might have pretty much readable, so what keith calls coons referendum, a propagandist, and while the west is citing international law to call it illegal, how much support does russia really have in the occupied territories? and that's a question i'd like to pass on to roman in bond at the referenda is obviously a sham. we have established that many times, but a lot of people in the numbers are indeed pro russian. if these referendums were real, how much support could put in expect well, it is a very theoretical question because to conduct a democratic or a friend of the you 1st need peace. you need a possibility for all the hundreds of 1000 people who fled the region to come back . you need observers of course, and you need, you need democratic parties, things that we do not have there. and you know, 1st of all, you need no soldiers then or guns, or can be no fair or democratic voting with a gun point, right? but back to your question, i think these are 4 regions and the situation is different in 2 of them. so the 1st, the regions dannetta can hands, which are the facto effect of actually occupied by russia since 2014, at least parts of them. and then we have people who are leaving them. most of them, or many of them, are supported, you cry supported the idea of staying in ukraine. we don't have recent data, but some data conducted a few years ago, suggested that they didn't want to join the russia even after spending years there . but the situation could have changed in russia started this, this open war in february because of the shelling heavy shelling and russian propaganda. and i do believe that maybe some people, maybe most of people who leave their in, in the region of done the ask in the city of the desk itself, could support joining russia. but that doesn't mean that, that gives a rush right to annex in that territory. in the south of ukraine, in the region of song and a part of the procedure region, the cdo of the bridge itself is still under ukrainian key of control. the situation is very much different and if it's in protests against the russian occupation in march and april, now russia responded to that. we have a reprisals again, population there, but still i think the general motors in the 1000 much more pro you pro ukrainian than it is in the east. now let, now i'd like to bring a view, a comment from one of our youtube viewers in the last show. jeff, jeff simkins, he said to stop talking about settlements. this is a win or lose. and zelinski also said that annexations would make peace talks impossible. daniel, does that mean fighting to the bitter end? i'm afraid. yes. i'm afraid that the signal or that the, this actually sense or the annexation annexation. and that's what we have to expect of those territories is there is no room for negotiations. and that's something that we have to understand or from a russian point of view, ah, this will be russian territories from the point of view of russian propaganda. that's very important. this will be russian territory. so there's nothing to talk about. and that's what we have to understand, and that's what we have to understand in the question of support of ukraine. what are we supporting ukraine for? we supporting ukraine to, to, to enable it, to regain as much territory as possible. maria you mentioned a minute ago, the nuclear threats at these annexations, do you think are that portable use them to justify a nuclear attack? i think unfortunately this is a direct connection. i think her friend don't need it's for a declare and this is in you would are let's make day negotiations and over stop the war. the west ukraine in the west. they say no. what's the next step? will the west say know though with if, if put in steps up to the table now and says okay, we have now alex, these bits of you grand were happy with it. we stop fighting, will the west will the west respond? i think the answer is her on ukrainian side and they of course will say no, they couldn't say yes after all this answer yes. so what will be the next step? i think there are several scenarios. in one scenario, at least, it's fair to make this technical use of nuclear weapon and then was so this poor guy's mobilized in russia. go to this very tory where will be kaos and death and i don't know desperation and to make this better. and i can always say what the chancellor were said, the chancellor said, we will not accept this. this is not how it's going to work that russia says ok we, we are occupied the territory wanted to of your pie. and now let's talk and we keep what we have. that's not how it's going, how it's going to work, and i think it's not how it should work. because what's the message then? whatever territory russia in the future will say it will take, it can take them because that's what we're saying. and i don't think the europe can agree to this. and i don't think this american president will agree to this. the future president might, who knows? at roman he book and put it will undoubtedly also conscript man from these annexed areas to fight against their own countrymen in ukraine. do you think that's realistic that they will actually fight? well, this is already happening and, and this has been happening for some time. now, especially in the regions or for dennis can landscape. people have been fighting there on the side of defact to russia for half a year, at least, and some of them, even in the years before. yes, they are fighting, the morale is low and we've seen that the ukrainian success in the north of ukraine in the region of hockey. where in early september, the ukrainian army was able to liberate large parts of occupied territories. and which was probably one of the most successful ukrainian operations in the south of this war. and the part of the ukrainian success was that in those parts, there were a lot of our conscript from don boss. so people who are actually ukrainians and but forced or some of them may be, wanted to fight against ukraine. so there was very low moral there and they just flood. so you mentioned a low morale, and that leads us nicely to our next a little report. put in as also mobilized 300000 more men to fight in ukraine, russian men that is, that the mobilization has hid a big obstacle. thousands of would be conscripts just don't want to die for putins imperial aspirations and are fleeing russia in droves, mostly to neighboring countries. a quick ideal, and then it's time to say good bye. andre, have been drafted and must now go to war. i have mixed feelings that mostly fear, and these are the scenes all over russia, families bidding farewell to men, fathers and sons, 300000 reservists have been conscripted. hooton's partial mobilization, have begun that many are not boarding the buses to the front. instead, they are leaving the country as quickly as possible. they are estimates that more than a quarter of a 1000000 men have already fled within the past week. was on him. i mean, we have a choice either we go to the front or we go to prison. never mind anyone who takes to the streets to protest the war is also threatened with imprisonment. the police quashed these demonstrations with brutal violence in siberia, a reservist shot a draft dodger in the head out of pure anger, critically wounding him. murder and death have reached the center of russian society. will brewton have enough soldiers for his war? yes, maria, it will. yeah. i mean, we just did the report we had the number 2 aren't 50000 that have a left. what are you hearing? ah, the people who left for the yesterday, my number is absolutely the same mile from the numbers of the true, the border on 24. so february is just like symbolic and number 8, sir around 200000, but sept. probably more today and will be more in the next day. so if they will not shut the borders, because this is if his disability, they will do it today or tomorrow. an answer 25000000 of men in russia could fight, i mean, very ethically. so there are many, berlin, what's the mood than in russia about this mobilization? what are you hearing? ah, people, i inter absolutely. because what sir? it's like 24th of february again, and for many people and i shape the tourist them because they denied sir. the idea that russia could sing bates either, especially claims are so close in many senses to russia. and so, yes, so now they could not deny it. it's like just in front of their faces and their, their husbands and their sons receiving this military's letters. and so yeah, and this is a huge factor. and people try not to stay at nights and there flats in here that they will come for them. and i'm talking about those who will not flee at the moment. and many of them could not because people in a poor agency in foreign austin same year like north of same year. they just couldn't make it. i mean, they couldn't pay for the airline tickets. it costs a lot, several days ago. the airline tickets you get to run the last one costs around 2000000 rubles. it's like when it's 9000, you could imagine that says something. so people want softly probably, but they could not. so they will choose between jail and so the war is in, you know, the view from, from neighboring countries, former soviet republics. what, what are you, what are you seeing? well, it is interesting because sir they of course, are there of course worried. look at color on, for example. they've well, very much the welcome. they're welcome, those they're welcome. those are those people george as well. that is not surprising. georgia is in a position to what is what is happening in russia. yes, of course they are. they are a little bit worried that the balance might not be not be too favorable. but this is one of the things we see that the protein is losing support, even in countries and regimes that have been quite supportive of, of course, for us outside of russia. it's a little bit ambivalent mom. we have been looking at a situation where we were, ah, seeing a society are enjoying summer while a we had a terrible war in ukraine and many people didn't seem to care lot. now day care. i think from our point of view, it's good if men leave and don't want to fight. but still, it's hard to forget that russian society that not really care a lot about this war before and talking about russian society would like to put their question a to roman there. as we said earlier, this conscription dr. makes it very palpable for average russians all over the country that the war has arrived in their country. will it change the mood? well, it is already changing the mood and it's, it's an experiment we haven't seen for decades in russia since the 2nd floor. i would say we haven't seen this in afghanistan in the eighty's or when the russian was fighting in church now in the ninety's. so it is a completely new dimension for the russian society. and it takes time for the society to digest, wants is really happening. and i think it is a very great danger for lodging, put in, but he thinks he can ride this wave. and m r. i have this idea that maybe he's actually and he thinks it is going according to the plan. because remember, when he 1st spoke, when the war began, he said it would clean the russian society. so people who are against these, this war or against me as president, they will just be killed or go away. and now we are seeing a kind of consolidation that he actually wanted. people who don't want to fight who do not support him, are fleeing the country. of people who stay who go, who's just sitting on that on those buses and are let themselves be driven to the front line and probably die in the coming weeks or days or months. this is what his plan was. so from that point of view, it is going according to his plan, he's consolidating the society. so don't we think that this will actually increase the protests? what are, what are you hearing there from, from, from russia? probably, but it's not question of days unfortunately. and probably we have this weeks and months to wait until people will be brave enough to do it because sir, it was a years and years of farrah. actually, it's very difficult to go to the street. no one for sure that will take you away. there will be, you will be rapes. i dunno, even killed in police. and so it's, you have to be a hero to do this and absolutely desperate hero. how many such people in society in any society. so people should be angry or so much. that's their same woman's, the whole nation will just send up and go to the states. if $1000000.00 people will be on the streets of moscow, that will be the end of fortune is there. absolutely. but it should be moments and moment of huge national anger. what i want to say, and which i say very important, i think it already, which has in great will to say that we have 2 biggest national shaman rations. ah, the 1st one that's lack of empathy to ukrainians. ants. you weren't talking about society, which leave to throw nice somewhere, but this is all right, this is how things are and now we know how it happened and you are in 2nd grade war . because in someplace that there were huge fights in our places, people just live through the summer. but for russians it could be so they should to do absolutely opposite thing. they shouldn't stop tags. i don't know what, whatever, but they didn't. and they didn't even believe they made them do not believe that this is true. and this 2nd national shame that's mothers, just send their children to died. so their front i couldn't, i couldn't believe this only and understanding caucasus region. people are brave. another like song and out since forgot the estate and mothers dinard. and they're just not afraid of anything because the biggest silver escape of a mother that to see on child's to die. and so what else, what else should happen? a bogus thought is an interesting point, because because of course, they ask themselves, why should they die for russian empire? and it is going against, say, belies the russian empire as we see it today. a lot, i think because but insult for years that their west want to divide us. they want to see the whole russia they wanted to separated by the agents will never do this, but he's doing by his own hands. exactly. we have a visit from your quarter. i mean, we're like, honest west where a guy said, ah, i mean, i don't have any against her. that's all to defend my country. but this is not my were, this is the war between russia, ukraine. he said he's from, you could say i select what's really so fast. so this is the huge sham minis form put in button, probably in another way. then just brought us on this. i have to interrupt you here . we have to come to our final round of statements, and i want to ask a question that you hinted on, you called it a russian, a shame in the big picture. what does this wor, no matter how it ends mean for russia's place in the world in the future? briefly? it's a catastrophe. it's a catastrophe because economically it's curtis roughly. it is or it is talking about a place in the world. even countries like china, ah, i'm not going to ally with a country that i hope i will be defeated in a way that we all have to hope that russia russia will at least be defeated in ukraine. so it's a disaster. roman, what's your view? where, where does this war leave russia in the future? well, i think we're witnessing the last phase of buildings, rule and russia, as we knew it under voting for more than 20 years, is ending. and as the new russia will be weak, are much weaker in the world than it was before. maria, poker, i hope pressure will be a better place to live after all. but when this future will come, you asking about fisher, but for distance, but talking about with russia after putting probably the next day, it will be very bad. but how long will be that this next day? it's a question and there were no now that's when it wasn't young lists independent journalist from last year. we couldn't go back in the short distance future because we were face 15 years in jail and so on. but it probably will book wouldn't come in 5 years as well. i don't know. i don't know. it's a disaster. yeah, good. thank you very much to my family. that was it for today. i hope you enjoyed our discussion and you can join the conversation. if you're watching us on youtube, we'd love to hear from you. put your thoughts in the comments below right here. and that's it. from me, i'm proud of us in berlin for me and the, to the point team. thanks for watching. with ah, [000:00:00;00] with who is the end of the pandemic in site. we show what he could look like will return to normal. and we visit those who are finding it difficult with successes in our weekly coven 19 special in 30 minutes on d. w. so how did she become adult hitler's favorite director? 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