late-night situation. jay leno addressed it head on seriously last night. we'll talk about that. but we start this morning with haiti. the death toll continues to climb there this morning where officials estimate 200,000 people may have been killed in last week's quake with millions more struggling for survival. the u.s. military is now air dropping food and water despite the potential of triggering violence among the crowds. meanwhile, a mission organized by pennsylvania governor ed rendell is bringing dozens of orphaned children back to the u.s. although the kids have been waiting for adoption for months, even years, officials sped up the process in the wake of the disaster. former president bill clinton had traveled to haiti yesterday, says the relief effort is beginning to make a difference despite a slow start. >> it wasn't like there was anybody in charge, but it wasn't anyone's fault. it's because of the way the earthquake took out people in the haitian government and their physical structures and the police, even 40%, they don't have any uniforms or weapons. and because of the way it took out the leadership of the u.n. and because of the time it took to get the americans in. we're rocking now. it will be better tomorrow. it will be better after that. in less than an hour, as we said, the polls will open in massachusetts where a special election is seen as a major test for the democratic party and for president obama's policies. just weeks ago, democrat martha coakley was cruising to victory to fill the seat left open by the late senator ted kennedy. but following a lackluster campaign, republican scott brown now has the momentum and the potential for an historic upset. msnbc chief washington correspondent norah o'donnell in boston this morning, better known as the cheers bar. you look a lot warmer this morning, norah. give us a sense of -- polls open in an hour. what do things look like now? >> reporter: well, democrats are bracing for a devastating defeat that could hand the republican party 41 votes in the senate and perhaps kill barack obama's health care reform. so they are worried. they are trying to do everything they can at the last moment to try and pull out this race with a get-out-the-vote operation with all the democratic mayors and local polls trying to sort of get out the vote this very -- you know, today when the polls open at 7:00, they close at 8:00 tonight. it's going to be tough. there's already finger pointing about what went wrong during this campaign, whether martha coakley was a bad candidate, whether democrats were asleep at the wheel, whether they didn't recognize the anger and anxiety out there in this country, or that scott brown was a good candidate who was running a stealth campaign with a couple million dollars from the republicans in washington who were funneling to his campaign and hoping to make this a race. so there's a lot of different factors at play. i caught up with vicki kennedy yesterday, the widow of senator ted kennedy who's been out campaigning. she's been very emotional on the trail because she's still grieving. and i asked her yesterday, what happened? what went wrong? what led to this point? and she tried to keep sort of a brave face on the whole thing, but listen to what she said. >> but i think that we have to ask for people's vote. certainly that's the way my husband always ran. you always ask for everyone's vote, for everyone's support. you can't take anything for granted. we shouldn't take anything for granted. you know, tip o'neill said it best, you know, all politics is local. if you don't ask people for their vote and for their support -- >> but nobody expected months ago that this would be this close and that a republican could actually win this seat. >> we're all out there asking people for their help and for their support. i think that tomorrow we're going to have a good victory with martha coakley. >> reporter: you hear that, she said you can't take anything for granted. you shouldn't take anything for granted. but coakley's criticed ss say ts exactly what she did. she took this race for granted. she took time off during the holidays when she should have been burning up and knocking on doors, working the shoe leather, getting out there. and she didn't. and so that's why there's a lot of talk now about what she did wrong. one other note, mika, i also asked vicki kennedy whether she would consider political office in the future. and she said that her heart is still heavy. and i said, that's not a no. and she said, my heart is still heavy. i thought that was a very interesting response about whether vicki kennedy may at some point seek political office herself. >> a number of interesting responses. great interview. nbc's norah o'donnell, thanks very much. that is fascinating. >> vicki kennedy may have a chance to run against a republican in a couple of years when the seat is back up. but mike barnicle, vicki kennedy could not have said it more succinctly in that interview that martha coakley lost this race. she didn't ask -- she didn't ask for votes. and i'm not talking about you, i'm just speaking about what i've heard, the kennedys really feel like martha coakley has wasted a great legacy. >> i don't think they're alone in that state with that sentiment, joe. i think a lot of democrats and independents feel the same way about the coakley campaign. i think a lot of people feel that if martha coakley were a doctor, she'd be in jail for malpractice. and this is political malpractice, what she has managed to do. now, she could still pull this out. it appears that she's running uphill now which in itself is staggering. >> staggering. >> 30-point lead a month ago. >> and let's put this into perspective. stu rothberg who along with charlie cook have been the two experts on capitol hill politics for a generation. stu rothenberg's quote this morning -- i read it in politico's playbook -- is that if brown wins tonight, he says this will be the greatest political upset of his lifetime. i don't know if he's -- i don't want to insult stu. he may be 55, he may be 60. he ain't a spring chicken. and he's followed all of these races more closely than anybody, again, other than charlie cook. and he said if brown wins, this will be the biggest political upset of my life. >> wow! all right. >> it's hard to put this into perspective, but it is -- it is devastating for the white house if brown ends up winning this. there's just no way to spin it. >> no. we're going to be talking about this much more. let's turn to new york now. new york politics where a new poll shows senator kirsten gillibrand dominating harold ford jr. in a potential matchup for the democratic primary. according to a siena research institute poll, gillibrand is ahead 41% to 17%. ford's camp loo point to lack of name recognition with 63% say they don't know enough about him. while ford hasn't decided on whether or not he'll run, he does have some tough words for his potential opponent saying gillibrand is, quote, weak in many places across the state. >> and a couple things about that poll. first of all, harold's not known well across the state. secondly, he's jumped 10 percentage points since the last poll was taken. and it's just way too early. the key here is you don't look at the challenger who's not well known. you look at the incumbent. her approval rating is -- she's sitting at, like, i believe 30% in this poll, maybe 32% approval rating. and when she does a head-to-head matchup against george pataki who, let's remember, didn't leave as the most popular governor in new york state, pataki trounces here, like, 51% to 36%. she is -- she is martha coakley in waiting, kirsten gillibrand. >> depending on the economy. >> -- those with no response because they're not following the race yet. not fair to harold. >> but no, harold's going to have to get known, there's no doubt about it. >> we shall see if he decides to run. >> yeah. you think he's going to run? >> i'm actually not sure. >> he should have moved to massachusetts on thanksgiving day. >> apparently. >> might have helped. >> he'd be on the verge of being in the united states senate. >> thanksgiving weekend up in massachusetts. >> stand outside fenway in the cold. >> shake hands. >> you, too, can be a senator. according to "the washington post," the fbi invoked false terrorism emergencies to illegally obtain more than 2,000 phone records during the bush administration. the bureau simply persuaded phone companies to turn their records over. a report says the fbi then issued approvaled after fact in order to justify their actions. and with the late-night battle lines clearly drawn, team conan is taking its message to the streets. backed by a facebook phenomenon, fans of "the tonight show" staged rallies in four cities yesterday. conan made a personal appearance outside universal studios, even buying pizzas for hundreds of people standing in the rain. conan appears poised to leave nbc after he refused to move his show to a later time slot. meanwhile, jay leno who is set to take back his old show at the 11:35 start time says it all comes down to business. >> when the boss gives you a job and you don't do it well, i think we did a good job here, but we didn't get the ratings. okay. so you get humbled. i said, okay. i'm not crazy about dog a half hour, but okay. what do you want to do with conan? we'll put him on at midnight or 12:05. he keeps "the tonight show." next thing i see conan has a story in the paper saying he doesn't want to do that. they come back to me and they say, if he decides to walk and doesn't want to do it, do you want the show back? i go -- yeah, i'll take the show back. through all of this, conan o'brien has been a gentleman. he's a good guy. i have no animosity towards him. this is all business. you know, folks, if you don't get the ratings, they take you off the air. >> and jeff zucker, the president and ceo of nbc universal, tells charlie rose that while his plan to shake up late night didn't work, he's now working to correct it. >> obviously, in hindsight, you know, perfect information leads you to that conclusion that it was a mistake. and i think it's the sign of a leader to step up and say, you know, when something's not working, to have the guts to reverse it. and the worst thing you can do is to let that mistake linger. and really that's what we've tried to do here. we tried to correct something that didn't work. >> that's interesting. >> willie? mika? what do you think, willie? you talk about nbc. let's start with you. >> i think that was the way to handle it. >> yeah. >> you know, we actually talk about president obama, when he takes responsibility for things, and it's sort of different than what we've seen. and look, this didn't work. it didn't work. so what are you going to do? >> here's the deal, though. because everybody's focusing on conan not getting the ratings. that's true. they gave conan one of the great franchises in tv history. and he lost, what, half of his audience? one-third of his audience? >> right. >> but his ratings collapsed, and everybody quietly, even people that loved conan, said god, that's going horribly. like ebersol said, he didn't change his routine enough. but there's another side of it. and that is jay leno. guess what? jay leno, they gave jay leno -- zuker gave leno a chance to revolutionize primetime. and if he had done a good job from 10:00 to 11:00, he would still be on, and his ratings would still be good. and they would be figuring the conan problem out. but what nobody is saying and nobody will say here around nbc because they hope jay goes back, he takes over "the tonight show," and it's number one, nobody's saying what i said six months ago, which is, of course, what everybody was saying off the air but nobody will say it on the air. and that is his show was terrible. it was not funny. jeff zucker gave him a chance to revolutionize primetime, and he failed. and not only did he fail, he failed miserably. i talked about on the air about those young comics. they would do these things, these skits -- >> oh, they were awful. >> -- and they were unwatchable. >> i didn't watch the whole "charlie rose" but isn't that what jeff is saying? >> no, but see, everybody's criticizing conan for not getting the ratings and not changing his show. he deserves that criticism. but there were two people given a great opportunity, and leno was the other one. his 10:00 show was just horrific. >> maybe the 10:00 show was horrific, but was it that different from what he was doing at 11:35? not really. which leads you to believe -- i mean, he's still jay leno, he's still got the celebrity guest. he did the man on the street stuffer, the jaywalking. so that leads you to the conclusion that nothing in that format, anyway, would work at 10:00 and that fundamentally it was a bad decision. i don't know if johnny carson would have worked at 10:00. who knows? >> the thing is, we know that the best of "snl" stuff during the campaigns explode during primetime. i know "snl" is different than "leno," but you can put something in there that doesn't require a massive budget and the rebuilding of an entire "west wing" and highly paid actors that will work. i think somebody funny with a political edge could work there. but leno, man, those comics, every time i looked at it, i was thinking, he's funneling this out. >> the "snl" things were once a week a couple times a year. it's hard to do it every night. leno said in his explanation last night, when they came to him about the 10:00 thing, he said this isn't going to work. it's a bad idea. leno that said on the air. >> everybody's an expert now. >> what seems to have happened is that when they switched jay from 11:30 to 10:00 and conan from 1:30 or 12:30 to 11:30, their personalities changed. with the change in time. they tried to be someone that they weren't. and it doesn't -- tv is an x-ray tube. and it didn't work. >> sometimes things evolve very organically. >> you know, i think we need to evolve. i think they need to start us at 7:30. >> yes! >> i'm feeling 8:00 a.m. that would be really good for me. oh, and maybe for you. might be here on time. inch all right. coming up, the backup plan. what the white house is preparing to do if the democrats lose today in massachusetts. and let the finger-pointing begin. we're going to get an exclusive first look at the politico playbook. and a little later, the two men who have governored the state for a good part of the past decade, mitt romney and governor deval patrick will join us. first, here's bill karins with a check on the forecast. >> morning. all eyes on massachusetts. we are watching light rain and snow moving through areas of upstate new york. this is all going to head through massachusetts during the day today. so the forecast in boston to worcester, lawrence and hyannis calls for light mix during the day today. you're watching "morning joe" brewed by starbucks. to help. the meeting with northern trust went well, didn't it? 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and he's doing this every night. and i understand the routine. but that's, like, the guy's barely above the mendoza line for late-night ratings. >> can i give you a different perspective on this, please? >> i'm just saying, he's trying to be martyr here. >> i'd like him to take half that money and send it right to haiti. >> send it to haiti. >> and just shut up because seriously this isn't that big a deal. this is late-night couple. >> he said about a week ago, the only thing i care about is being able to feed my family. really? >> you know what? >> really, conan? you know what? drop the martyr complex right now. and jay, you know what? you're a back stabber, all right? let's just get it all out into the open. you were with david. it is what it is, but it's jay, as you said, it's all about business. you sucked at 10:00, conan sucked at 11:30. you know what? you didn't put zucker in a good position. >> but like the big bank -- >> hold on. chris. oh, my god. >> still raking it in on wall street. >> really, conan, drop the martyr complex. >> send millions of dollars to haiti. and if they don't, they should be ashamed of themselves. making themselves front headlines. >> i can tell you one bank that has. i can tell you that bank of america has thrown millions to haiti. >> good. and they should be the example. >> ferrying things back and forth. >> it reminds me of this whole conan/jay fight reminds me of an old shakespeare line. >> i'm serious. >> are we dancers? oh, wait. that's the killers, the song we're playing. i don't get it. i don't get it. >> i find it to be out of place, out of tone with what's going on. >> the killers are not out of tone. they're just nice kids from vegas. all right. let's look at "the morning papers." "the boston globe," the big story of the morning, all eyes on the bay state ballot. brown and coakley make final push before today's high-stakes election. "miami herald," tension spreads on the street. >> and "wall street journal" this morning, cadbury is going to be taking over for kraft. usa. what else, mika? >> set to pay lots of money for that. "new york times," democrats seek options to keep health bill alive pathetic. the white house has begun laiing the groundwork to rush approval and send the bill directly to president obama for his signature. embarrassing. >> now, willie, let's go to politico and answer the question, are we humans, or are we dancers? >> or are we dancers? hey, mike allen has a look at the politico playbook. are we human or are we dancers? >> happy election day. is there a third choice? >> see, no one knows. >> nobody knows. >> i don't get the lyrics. i don't get it. i don't get it. >> we've got to google this one. mike allen, let's talk about the massachusetts election. it's not decided yet, but the polls do not look good for martha coakley. and i understand democrats already blaming each other. >> yeah, willie, you might call this a pre-mortem. there's already a circular firing squad among democrats in massachusetts, in washington. was it the pollster? was it the democratic national committee? was it the preds wsident who crd this environment? was it the campaign economy which was slow to recognize this race was slipping away? they're all saying that someone should have sounded the alarm earlier. but let's be honest, the press took a while to catch on as well. i have with me this morning the dewey versus truman of our times. this is the "boston sunday globe" nine days ago, nine da