BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 13, 2024
That is putting the fed in a bit of a bind. It creates the risk of a policy mistake. The fed will not make a policy mistake if everything is fine. If the data does not get worse. Which people are forecasting. You could have a second half where the economy is bouncing back. The second half we should see that fade. The fed is actually going to surprise to the downside on the Balance Sheet. They should not continue that Balance Sheet expansion. Is the market going to see that as the end of qe, quantitative tightening . The fed playbook is to cut big and fast and signal qe if there is weakness. Th...