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12 min Is Facebook's "Prophet" the Time-Series Messiah, or Just a Very Naughty Boy? Published on February 3, 2021   Facebook's Prophet package aims to provide a simple, automated approach to prediction of a large number of different time series. The package employs an easily interpreted, three component additive model whose Bayesian posterior is sampled using STAN. In contrast to some other approaches, the user of Prophet might hope for good performance without tweaking a lot of parameters. Instead, hyper-parameters control how likely those parameters are a priori, and...

Book review of Cunningham’s Causal Inference: The Mixtape was accompanied by the unusual sight of multiple economists proudly posting photos (e.g. 1, 2, 3) on twitter of the arrival of the book at their houses like they had just scored tickets to a sold-out concert. This book has two fantastic features for readers interested in impact evaluation. First, Scott has provided a free online version of the book, as a compliment to the paper copy. Second, the book provides Stata and R code throughout, which both shortens the distance from theory to practice, and can serve as a great way of helping...