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Is Facebook's "Prophet" the Time-Series Messiah, or Just a Very Naughty Boy?

12 min
Is Facebook s Prophet the Time-Series Messiah, or Just a Very Naughty Boy?
Published on February 3, 2021

Facebook s Prophet package aims to provide a simple, automated approach to prediction of a large number of different time series. The package employs an easily interpreted, three component additive model whose Bayesian posterior is sampled using STAN. In contrast to some other approaches, the user of Prophet might hope for good performance without tweaking a lot of parameters. Instead, hyper-parameters control how likely those parameters are a priori, and the Bayesian sampling tries to sort things out when data arrives.
Judged by popularity, this is surely a good idea. Facebook s prophet package has been downloaded 13,698,928 times according to pepy. It tops the charts, or at least the one I compiled here where hundreds of Python time series packages were ranked by monthly downloads. Download numbers are easily gamed an ....

New York , United States , Alejandro Gonzalex Mata , Navratil Kolkova , Monte Carlo , Hideaki Hayashi , Michael Grogan , Albert Laszlo Barabas , Al Yazdani , Vishvesh Shah , Nikolaos Kourentzes , American Statistician , Worrying Analysis , Probabilistic Time Series Models , Sales Forecasting , Cash Flow , Time Series , Air Pollution Forecasting , Prophet Model , Nyeti M , Bitcoin Forecasting Using , Fred Viole , Facebook Prophet , Reverend Bayes , Markov Chain Monte Carlo , Reverand Bayes ,

Book review of Cunningham's Causal Inference: The Mixtape

Book review of Cunningham’s Causal Inference: The Mixtape
was accompanied by the unusual sight of multiple economists proudly posting photos (e.g. 1, 2, 3) on twitter of the arrival of the book at their houses like they had just scored tickets to a sold-out concert. This book has two fantastic features for readers interested in impact evaluation. First, Scott has provided a free online version of the book, as a compliment to the paper copy. Second, the book provides Stata and R code throughout, which both shortens the distance from theory to practice, and can serve as a great way of helping learn one language if you know the other. ....

Monty Hall , Dave Matthews Phish , Rebecca Thornton , Scott Cunningham , Panel Data , Causal Inference , Mostly Harmless Econometrics , Regression Review , Bayes Rule , Directed Acyclic Graphs , Potential Outcomes Causal Model , Instrumental Variables , Post Malone , மோண்தி மண்டபம் , ரிபேக்க தோர்ன்டன் , ஸ்காட் கன்னிங்ஹாம் , குழு தகவல்கள் , பெரும்பாலும் பாதிப்பில்லாதது எகநொமீட்ரிக்ஸ் , பின்னடைவு விமர்சனம் , வளைகுடாக்கள் ஆட்சி , பொடெந்ஶியல் ஔட்கம்ஸ் காரண மாதிரி , போஸ்ட் மலோந் ,