bernie sanders supporters. living in your parents basement, the idea. and bernie sanders free college idea. meanwhile, the balance of power in congress is up for grabs in 37 days. this republican senate has been a flop. the senate majority hangs in the balance. could go either way. all you need to know in national world and political news, to start your week, special report starts right now. good evening, welcome to washington. the message from the two presidential campaigns tonight. trust no one. it has been a weekend of damage and spin control after the leaking of potentially damage information about hillary clinton and donald trump. we have fox team coverage tonight. the hillary clinton campaign, dealing with the leaked audio. we begin with senior national correspondent, john roberts. outside trump tower tonight in new york on donald trump s tax returns. good evening, john. good evening to you. donald trump spent much of the day preparing for next sunday s debate in st. louis. and insiders say he will be ready for his next face off with hillary clinton. one issues he will likely have to grapple with, new questions raised about unauthorized release of his partial tax returns for the near 1995. the new york times reports that in 1995, donald trump declared a loss of nearly $1 billion from the collapse of his casino empire. the trump shuttle. ill-fated purchase of the hotel. without any proof he did, the times went on to say, trump could have used the loss to avoid paying any taxes for 1 years. trump surrogates were dispatched to fight back. praising his business acumen. there is no one who has shown more genius in their way to maneuver the tax code and rightfully use the laws to do that. this is part of or tax code. the man is a genius. he knows how to use the tax code for the benefit of people he is serves. the explanation mirrored what mitt romney said. i pay all the taxes that are legally required not a dollar more. the clinton campaign, the bombshell that romney warned was lurking in the tax returns. it shows the colossal scale of business the 1990s. probably hit a nerve with him. that he is a shamed of today. he crashes, businesses into bankruptcy. leaving scores of businesses unpaid. people really hurting with the loss of his companies have suffered. he wants to weigh in unscathes. the trump campaign did not dispute the facts but said they were illegally obtained and threatened legal actions. the campaign insists, donald trump has paid hundreds of millions in property tagss, sales and excise taxes, real estate taxes, city taxes, state taxes and employee taxes and federal taxes. the new york times does not have any information in that story that says mr. trump did not pay taxes. all he did was quote the law. if you have that kind of loss then you can use that kind of loss to offset income for 18 years. the release of the tax returns appeared to derail trump s rally in manheim pennsylvania last night. trump went way off script. at one point, mocking clinton s fainting spell. and threatening to bring up bill clinton s infidelity at the next debate, suggesting she may have been unfaithful to him. i don t think she is royal to bill if you want to know the truth. and, really, really, folks, why should she be, right? plenty of republicans including newt ging rich are warning trump against talking about bill clinton s infidelities fearing they could lose women voters en masse. on the income tax front, democrats over the next week will ratchet up pressure for trump to release recent returns. pressure trump insists he is determined to resist. john roberts. thank you. the clinton team is trying to walk back or, at least massage the nominee s private comments about bernie sanders supporters who happen to be mainly a lot of young voters she is eagerly trying to court. senior political correspondent, mike emmanuel from akron, ohio. good evening. brett, good evening. donald trump says tonight. bernie sanders should pull his endorsement of hillary clinton. trump says clinton deceived sanders and attacked him and his supporters. there is a sense of disappointment among young people about politics. they are children of the great recession, they re living in their parents basement. the idea that maybe, just maybe you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing. today clinton s campaign manager was asked to explain the hacked audio from clinton s conversation from donors in february. talking about young people that she met. who were frustrated that, that they graduated from college. and went into an economy where they couldn t find the job they wanted. her current opponent, donald trump pounced. tweeting, crooked h, nasty to sanders supporters behind closed doors. owned by wall street and politicians, hrc is not with you. bernie sanders blamed college affordability and not clinton. what she was saying there is absolutely correct. and that its you have millions of young people, many of whom took out loans in order to go to college, hoping to go out and get decent paying good jobs. and you know what? they re unable to do that. but when confronted by many of his supporters, holding back from embracing clinton, sanders did not push. we live in in a tough world. this country faces enormous crises, as we do. i would look people simply, i m not going to tell people how to vote. in addition to win over supporters and millenials. and, also trying to firm up backing in the african-american community. clinton visited a predominantly african-american church in charlotte. we do know this family and this community is in pain. clinton reiterated a call for better policing and pledged much more. how we best do that. and how we bring everybody off to the table. breaking this hour, we have got basketball superstar, lebron james of the cleveland cavaliers endorsing hillary clinton for president. that may help her here in the buckeye state. clinton is set to return here to ohio tomorrow after not being here for the past month. there are reports clinton its ready to write off the buckeye state. but her agent says that is not the case. mike, thank you. on election night we ll be very frd abointerested about th balance of power. and in the senate. it really does hang in the balance this election. here you see a map where all of the senate candidates that are running this cycle, the blue, the red, states where one u.s. senate candidate is up. the gray does not have a senate race in this cycle. you can see the breakdown here. but let s look, bigger picture here. the majority. 54 republicans. to 46 democrats. it s 45 democrats with one independent who caucuses with the democrats. this is the majority. it takes 51. for the majority or 50 plus 1. we ll explain that in a second. as of tonight. the average of polls in the races. if the is a razor thin margin. this is how the races would break down. democrats as of tonight, would pick up wisconsin, ron johnson would lose there. illinois, mark kirk would go down. evan buy and indiana would pick up the indiana senate race. as well as pennsylvania as of tonight. pat toomey the incumbent would lose there. even in north carolina. as of tonight the average of polls has the incumbent going down. now, for the republican side, you have a pickup tonight. in nevada. and the rest are a you have new hampshire, holding for kelly florida holding for michael rubio. and john mccain a big winner in arizona. the rest of the states as of tonight. stay exactly the same. look at these numbers. 50, 50. tie. so, who ever wins the presidency, that is the tie-breaker. if hillary clinton wins. vice president kaine becomes the tie-breaking vote. and the democrats take the majority of the u.s. senate. vice president pence its the tie-breaker and republicans win. that is how much the u.s. senate hangs in the balance. and how close it is. now on the house side. it is a different picture. 247-18 247-188. they may lose some seats according to the polls. not many. it s likely that house speaker, paul ryan will be the speaker of the house november 9th. there are many interesting races across the country. with interesting people. one of the most interesting house races is in california. where the son of a political icon is going up against a new face in the republican party. running an interesting race in california. chief correspondent jonathan hunt lays it all out for us. scratch the surface of california s agricultural 20th congressional district. an area voted overwhelmingly democratic in the past. and a fascinating political race is shaping up. i m not supporting donald trump. a republican candidate not shy about disavowing the top of the republican ticket. and a democart with a famous name. you know my politics you. know my platform. you know my family. jimmy panetta son of leon pa netta, former congressman, former white house chief of staff, former cia director, former secretary of defense. i an proud of my last name. i am proud of the service. i was taught that service isn t a choice. it is an expectation. and he served in afghanistan as an ill tntelligence officer. and a district attorney in monterey county. focusing on violent gangs. i haven t been handed anything. i worked hard. i want to work hard for you. his republican opponent is a navy veteran and at the naval post graduate school. well aware she faces an uphill battle in terms of name recognition. obviously it is difficult. it does speak to the establishment politics. which is exactly what people are tired of this year. you, have said very publicly, we will not be voting for donald trump. the top of your own ticket. why not? we do rely on immigrant labor. we need immigration reform. so his immigration policy would not work for the residents of my district. i, i disagree with his trade policies. and i just disagree with, with his foreign policy. beaw beth candidates acknowledge, the biggest single issue in the district. panetta are gauze he is more committed to comprehensive reform. i don t want to take it piecemeal. i want to make sure we have people who are willing to tackle that wholeheartedly. dealing with border security. dealing with visa. and pathway to citizenship. making sure we have people willing to come out of the shadows. are you confident with the victory? i feel very good going into november. there has been no reliable polling. since the primary in june. which under california s rules. the top two vote getters advance to the general election, regardless of party. and in that primary vote. jimmy panetta beat casey lucius by 50 points. brett. one of the races we will follow. jonathan, thank you. one quick correction, i said there was one independent caucus with democrats. two. angus king from maine. bernie sanders from vermont. look at the house. balance of power in the house. senior capitol hill producer is with us tonight. chad, what are the expectations for the balance of power? touched on it there at the big board? democrats are going to win seats in the house of representatives. the question is how many. and one of the most interesting things about this election is that, the republicans have a very good fire wall which was put in. after the 2010 census. redistricting. really worked in the republicans favor in 2010. here you have the democrats getting the nominee who they really want this year in donald trump. and somebody they ought to be able to clean house with. they are not that close to winning control of the house of representation. they re going to pick up seats. could there be a wave at the end. we saw a wave in 2006. you had big sea changes in the house of representatives. 30-plus seats. that s exactly what they would need this time around. and house minority leader for nancy pelosi is saying, just wait. nobody thought we were going to win at this point. in 2006. it turned into wait. and it turned into the 2010. much closer to the time. so, it s like saying you see a wave. we are not at the beach. now the senate majority leader, mitch mcconnell he knows this is a jump ball going in here. he said as much just a couple of days ago. we have got knock down, drag out, sort of like a knife fight in a phone booth. new hampshire pennsylvania, wisconsin, illinois, nevada, indiana, florida. we seem to have gotten some distance in ohio. but, you know everywhere else, it s it could go either way. the key here might be republican incumbents who won in their primaries. that was not the case in 2010, and 2012. that s the fire wall in the united states senate, this cycle for republicans. they were able to get marco rubio, the senator who of course ran for president, to run. he was not going to run. he was done with politics. that might be the key at end of the day. there is a lot more republican seats on the field here, compared to democrat seats this cycle. that s why democrats are starting to get into races here in north carolina and missouri. if it pans out look i did at the big board, 50/50. it is the presidential race that breaks the tie. you have possibility that someone in the middle, in either party could switch. we saw with jim jeffords. absolutely. going into the election. right after the election in 2000. trent lott, tom daschle, republican, democratic leaders that year. they forged an alliance. an agreement that came to pass in may of that year when jim jeffords switched party. jeffords switched parties. he talked caucus with the democrats. and that power sharing agreement, came into play. that s what was in the majority leader for six, seven months. fascinating. very quickly, what s left on the table. for congress that possibly factors in here. couple things here. merit garland. the big push by democrats to try to move merit garland through the senate. that didn t work out. in fact. democrats were going to try to make that ape race for chuck grassley. chairman of the judiciary committee. patty judge. not a factor whatsoever. and the thing that was left on the table was a contempt of congress citation. brian pagliano, former it specialist at the state department who set up the personal server for hillary clinton. they will hold him in contempt, in november, republicans wanted to do that before the election. continuing to push the issues with hillary clinton that she is not trust worthy. and begging the question what went on with the e-mail server. and upholsterhow that was di with the department of justice. up next we will compare and contrast the tax policies as we know them. of hillary clinton and donald trump. first, here are some of our fox affiliates covering tonight. in miami, zika mosquitoes have been captured. the sixth time. infected mosquitoes have been found in the region. the first time in two weeks. fox 32 in chicago, 36 people have been shot in another violent weekend there. at least two people have died so far. a 17-year-old girl shot in the head early saturday morning. and a 35-year-old man was killed in another neighborhood about a half an hour later. that makes at least, 527 homicides in chicago so far this year. it is early october. this is a live look at new york from our affiliate fox 5. one of the big stories there. a u.s. official telling the associated press. federal rail officials found dozens of violations in the new jersey transit system. before the commuter train crashed into the hoboken station. one woman was on the platform. and was killed by debris. more than 100 people injured. federal data indicates, new jersey transit trains have been involved in more than 150 accidents. since the start since 2011. that s tonight s live look outside the beltway. from special report. we ll be right back. one of the areas in which hillary clinton and trump dif one of the areas in which hillary clinton and donald trump differ the most is taxes. correspondent kristin fisher is here tonight to break that down for us. hey, brett. in the midst of this most unconvenkle, traditional republican and democratic values. trump wants to cut taxes and clinton wants to raise them. if you re in the top income bracket, trump would cut your tax rate to 33%. that s down from its current level of 39.6%, and that is a identical to the tax plan put forward by house speaker paul ryan. but under clinton s plan, if you make more than $1 million a year, you d be subjected to a minimum 30% tax rate skpmpt if you make more than $5 million a year, you d also be hit with a 4% fair share surcharge that would effectively create a new top tax bracket of 43.6% while trump would cut the current seven tax bracket ets down to three, 12%, 25%, and 33% that. would help anyone learning less than $195,000 a year. as for clinton, she said flat out she will not raise taxes on the middle class, and she defines that as anyone making less than $250,000 a year. if you run a business, clinton wouldn t touch the corporate tax rate, which is currently at 35%. but look at this. trump would cut it to 15%. listen to how trump and clinton tried to spin this part of his plan during the first debate. that s going to be a job creator like we haven t seen since ronald reagan. it s going to be a beautiful thing to watch. companies will come. they will build. they will expand. it would be the most extreme version, the biggest tax cuts for the top percents of the people in this country than we ve ever had. i call it trumped up, trickle down because that s chal what it would be. what kind of an impact would these two tax plans really have on our economy? experts say clinton s plan would increase federal revenues by about $1.1 trillion over the next ten years. as for trump, his latest plan has yet to be scored, but he insists it would reduce the deficit by $2.6 trillion over the same time period. bret, these tax plans could very well be one of the hottest topics at this next debate. we ll continue to do this compare and contrast on policies here sunday. kristen, thank you. thank you. let s get some insight now on the trump tax controversy. the rest of the campaign now and where this race stands tonight. karl rove is a republican strategist. he joins us from austin, teexz. and joe trippy is a veteran democratic strategist, worked on several campaigns. he s in richmond, virginia. let s first put up the average of polls that we look at, the most recent polls. we ve got the fox average, if you will, and it has hillary clinton up just slightly in the average of polls. and you can see it right there on the screen. and then if you put up the electoral map as we have it, these are states that as of the average tonight of the polls in these various states, hillary clinton has 263 to donald trump s 171. 104 toss-ups. this is, as of tonight, it can shift, it can change. 270 is what you need to win the presidency. karl, your thoughts on the state of the race right now. well, it s been a bad week for trump. he had a pretty good debate, the first 30 minutes he did well. and then since then, rather than talking about things that people care about, he s been focused on a former miss universe, whose name came up in the debate, and for reasons that are beyond me, he s focused on her rather than the news that was available to him each and every day. monday, the fbi came out and said 10.8% jump in murders over the last year. tuesda tuesday, director comey is grilled by congress over his failure on the clinton investigation. wednesday, they announce 600 more troops going to iraq. no status of forces agreement. thursday, the gao comes out and slams the administration over funding of obama care. and rather than talking about these kind of things or on friday, the release of the bernie sanders comments by hillary clinton, rather than talking about these, donald trump has been talking, tweeting, and shouting about a former miss universe. it s just beyond me. okay, joe. how does the tax story play? it depends on how i don t know what they re doing. i agree with karl that he had all this momentum. then he went into the debate. i thought was doing well at the beginning of it and then just sort of unraveled, and he s been unraveling ever since. even the handling of the tax stuff, they re not getting in front of anything, and it looked like at his rally where he started going after hillary for the pneumonia stuff and that she wasn t loyal to bill, he s not even addressing it. he s sort of, you know, throwing things out that i think have to really worry a lot of the republicans, particularly those running in these tight senate races, having to defend this stuff. so right now it s all going against him at this moment. let me ask you this, joe. do you think that you have a situation here where the clinton team has to look at these numbers and say, you know, this is not a guy that is running a traditional campaign. the numbers aren t moving a great deal, and this is still an anti-establishment, anti-elitist kind of atmosphere out there. are they concerned that if they don t see the numbers move significantly in coming days, that they still have a fight on november 8th? well, look, they re going to have a fight on november 8th, but i think the clinton side of this is wherever whenever the focus is on one of them, whoever has the focus doesn t do very well. it was that she wasn t doing well in those weeks prior to the debate. then all of a sudden, the focus has gone back to trump. they want to keep it there, and they want to just keep throwing out bait and hoping he keeps going for it. i think we re going to see that for the next 30 days. i do think, though, that they also believe that they can get their early voting started, that they can get their vote out, and that s what they re concentrating on. and the longer trump sort of is reacting badly and sort of pushing off, i don t think they re that worried at all. he keeps bringing attention to him. they keep getting out their vote. that s sort of the plan right now, and i think it s working for them. in this environment, what is mike pence s mission come tuesday for this debate? put the focus back on change. the argument ought to be are you in favor of change with trump/pence, or are you in favor of status quo with clinton/kaine? and this week again, you know, one of the most valuable, if not the most valuable asset a presidential candidate has at this point in the campaign is time. and we ve chewed up here we had 42 days the morning after the debates between that day and the election day. and donald trump has used four or five or six of those days, depending on how you look at it, as being only as being largely or only connected to miss universe, and he has got to push the change dynamic. and my suspicion is that on tuesday night, we re going to see two people on the stage who both of them are going to come off well, but i think pence is going to hit hard the dynamic of do you like where the country is going? are you in the favor of the direction it s headed? if not, come with us. if you are comfortable with the way things are, go with the status quo of clinton/kaine. okay. i want both of you to go back to the electoral map real quick and pick out one state that you think is important for either campaign, and we ll put up the average of polls in that state. karl, you re first. let s go with florida. okay. let s put up the rcp average of florida polls there. it has clinton up 44.7% to 43.5%. this is critical because if trump wins florida and i think he s got a good chance of winning it then he can win the white house. if he loses florida, in all likelihood, he s not going to win the contest because democrats have taken 18 states and the district of columbia in all six of the last presidential elections. all six. 242 electoral votes in those states. if he wins florida, then that kicks him then he s got a good start. if she wins florida, she s at 271. if she wins those states that they ve carried the last six times. so he s got to win florida. it could put him on the path to the white house. if not, very difficult to see a path that gets him there. okay. joe, your state? north carolina. all right. let s put up the average in north carolina. it is trump, 43.1% to clinton, 42.3%. this is a state that barack obama won in 2008 and then lost narrowly by a half a point in 2012. i think the clinton campaign is going to throw everything but the kitchen sink at trying to pull this state out. if they do, particularly if karl s right that florida could tip to trump, then north carolina ends up slamming the door on him. if they get florida and north carolina, forget it. it s over. so i think they re going to throw everything at it, and i think getting out their vote, that s the they re going into that kind of an effort right now, and i still think trump and the gop is woefully behind. it s better the republican party has gotten better, but the trump campaign doesn t have the apparatus in place, i don t think. gentlemen, as always, thank you very much. by the way, north carolina also an interesting senate race there that could be the balance of power. as we just said, we are two days away from the only debate between the vice presidential candidates, democratic senator tim kaine and republican governor mike pence. special report will be on troad at longwood university. megyn kelly will join me 8:50 p.m. last monday s first tom of the ticket clash between hillary clinton and donald trump has sparked a lot of complaints about media bias. tonight national correspondent william nash less looks at a new way to track what s being reported about the debates. here s what we can do. we can employ half a billion more solar panels. do you remember that part of the debate? probably not because that sound bite wasn t replayed over and over again. we know that a lot of people learn not just from the show itself but from how tv news reports it. reporter: well, that s no secret, but until now no one quantified how that happens. for the first time, analysts measured exactly how many times the tv networks replayed the same sound bite in their post-debate coverage. i will release my tax returns against my lawyers wishes when she releases her 33,000 e-mails that have been deleted. reporter: that was the most aired ten seconds of the debate according to the internet archive, followed by clinton s response on stamina. well, as soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, he can talk to me about stamina. reporter: third, her counterpunch on preparation. you know what else i prepared for? i prepared to be president. reporter: that played 11 times on four morning shows. we know from the political science research that both the debate and more particularly the media coverage of the debate do have a small effect on voters preferences. not huge. you know, the largest effects we see sort of historically. about two to three points. reporter: example. in 2000, voters scored the first debate for al gore, but after, bush gained in the polls. in 1976, voters didn t know what ford said about the soviets to be a gaffe until the media highlighted it. in 2004, a second group watching the post-debate commentary called it for bush. not everybody has time to watch a full 90-minute debate. people will turn on the morning news, and they ll see what their favorite newscaster said about something. reporter: what got the least amount of coverage? the first 40 minutes where trump talked about the economy and jobs and later bashed clinton on nafta and tpp. bret? william, thank you. still ahead, why critics of a statewide push to raise the minimum wage in maine say it might backfire on the poor. but first, why you could get the feeling you re being watched when you vote in november. you ve got to go out, and you ve got to get your friends and you ve got to get everybody you know, and you ve got to watch your polling booths. is depression more than sadness? it s a tangle of multiple symptoms. trintellix (vortioxetine) is a prescription medicine for depression. trintellix may start to untangle or help improve the multiple symptoms of depression. for me, trintellix made a difference. tell your healthcare professional right away if your depression worsens, or you have unusual changes in mood, behavior or thoughts of suicide. antidepressants can increase these in children, teens, and young adults. trintellix has not been studied in children. do not take with maois. tell your healthcare professional about your medications, including migraine, psychiatric and depression medications to avoid a potentially life-threatening condition. increased risk of bleeding or bruising may occur especially if taken with nsaid pain relievers, aspirin, or blood thinners. manic episodes or vision problems may occur in some people. may cause low sodium levels. the most common side effects are nausea, constipation and vomiting. trintellix did not have significant impact on weight. ask your healthcare professional if trintellix could make a difference for you. you may notice your polling place is a little more crowded this november than in you may notice your polling place is a little more crowded this november than in years past. that s because there may be volunteers keeping their eye on you. senior correspondent eric shawn is in new york tonight to tell us why. good evening, bret. there likely will be more than just election officials at your polling place watching, but an army recruited to look out for any possible wrongdoing. kathy may hall plans to keep an eagle eye on the vote. we re going to poll-watch or, as they say, poll-observe. the ohio donald trump supporter has heeded the call from the trump campaign to sign up as a poll watcher in cleveland. the effort, the latest move by political parties and other groups to deploy volunteers to monitor the election. you get to be inside the precinct election board, and, you know, you actually can in pennsylvania, you can keep track of everyone that comes in to vote. i mean you can ask the board every hour how many republicans, how many democrats, how many independents. keep a running track of it. you just watch what s going on. in 46 states, private citizens can challenge voter qualifications, either on or before election day, except in alabama, kansas, oklahoma, and wyoming. in ohio, groups like trump s can observe but not challenge voters. the poll watching group that has gained the most attention has been the houston-based true the vote. in six years, it says, thousands of poll watchers have been trained saying they act properly. but critics have long charged that such citizen efforts can be too aggressive and lead to voter intimidation and suppression. there is a significant risk of discriminatory conduct. wendy wiser says poll watchers have repeatedly been shown to challenge voters based on race. she says in such a heated election as this one, officials should check voters, not private groups. it is illegal for people to target voters on a discriminatory basis. it is illegal for people to behave in anway, and that includes directly confronting voters or using any threatening language or raising your voice. and it s illegal to disrupt the polling place or to otherwise try to purposefully interfere with eligible people participating. but kathy says she will do the right thing. it s a way to watch what s going on and make sure that everyone gets a chance to vote regardless of who they re voting for, that their vote is their vote and it counts. true the vote says its watchers are prohibited from talking directly to voters to prevent any possible problems. as for the trump campaign, it did not respond to our request for information. and kathy tells me she s still waiting for a poll training information too. but also says she can t wait. bret? a lot to cover on this topic. we ll see you next week. eric, thanks. voters in maine have a big decision to make. should she increase the minimum wage there? correspondent douglas kennedy looks at the situation tonight from portland, maine. my dad started his first restaurant in 54. reporter: steve de mille low has been working in restaurants since he was 8 years old. so the restaurant business really has a very slim margin of profit. that it does. you know, we hope for most full service restaurants hope for a 4% or 5% bottom line. it s a struggle. some years we make it. some years we don t. reporter: exactly why he opposes a ballot measure in maine that would raise the minimum wage for tipped workers to $12 an hour by 2024. de mille low says making a slim margin at his restaurant in portland all but disappear. currently you have to pay your waiters and waitresses $3.75 an hour. correct. so this is a huge expense. it s a huge expense. by the time this ramps up to $12 an hour, it s enough that we re talking about changing the whole format of our restaurant. reporter: changing the whole format, he says, could mean eliminating tips and possibly even cutting out wait staff altogether. seven states already have this policy in place where tipped workers make the same minimum wage. tipping is alive and well and the restaurant industries are doing great. reporter: will is from an advocacy group supporting the measure, which would also raise the minimum wage for all other workers from $7.50 to $12 an hour by 2020. $7.50 an hour is about $300 a week. you can t live on that. reporter: supporters of the ballot measure say when workers make more money, they will spend more money in maine s stores and restaurants, boosting maine s economy. but it s a prediction not everyone is buying. charles hughes is from the kato institute and has studied the effect of minimum wage increases on the economy. in the past when the minimum wage has been increased, firms, in an universally to absorb these higher labor costs have held off on plans to expand. some have had to close completely, and some have reduced the number of workers they re able to employ. it s an argument ali has heard before. working for 3.75 an hour is hard. ali works as a waitress in portland and she says when tips disappear in the off-season, she can t pay her bills. as soon as summer dies off, you have fall and winter. how are you going to live off of $3.75 an hour. there s some workers who say in the off-season, their tips are nonexistent or very low, and they simply can t get by on the current minimum wage. what do you say to them? i say the wait staff probably in any restaurant in the state of maine is making well above minimum wage, and they took the good with the bad. reporter: he says having no job will be much worse, which is exactly what he says will happen if maine passes the hike. in portland, douglas kennedy, fox news. next up, the trump tax headlines and the fallout, and hillary clinton s basement dweller comment about bernie sanders supporters. we ll talk about all of it and the rest of the campaign news when the panel joins me after a quick break. maybe he doesn t want the american people, all of you maybe he doesn t want the american people, all of you watching tonight, to know that he s paid nothing in federal taxes. that makes me smart. if he s paid zero, that means zero for troops, zero for vets, zero for schools or health. now, if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make all the rest of us? first of all, we re talking about 26 years ago. perfectly legal. we should get that straight. a perfectly legal application of the tax code. and he would have been a fool not to take advantage of it. what it shows is what an absolute mess the federal tax code is, and that s why donald trump is the person best positioned to fix it. this was the story that drove a lot of news today. the new york times had this story, and we asked a question before about donald trump s tax returns in our fox polls. does the fact that donald trump has not released his tax returns bother you or is it no big deal? bothers me, 46%. no big deal, 52%. today trump tweeting, i know our complex tax laws better than anyone who s ever run for president, and i m the only one who can fix them. #failingnew yorktimes. let s bring in our panel. tucker karlsson. host of fox & friends weekend. amy stoddard, tom roggin, columnist for the national review, and david druker. objectio david, how does it play? i think when you re dealing with both of these candidates, who are both very unpopular and have a lot of problems, any day that you re on defense, any day that you re not talking about your message and making your opponent explain all of their flaws and all of the challenges that they have, that s a losing day for you. and i think that coming out of the debate and coming out of the week that donald trump had, i don t think this does him any favors. does it cost him with his base? no. his base will never abandon him. but his challenge is to get from his base to just over the top and a little more than clinton, and this does not help him get there. okay. we should point out this is from 1995. the new york times says they got a manilla envelope with the tax returns, tucker, and that in there was a loss of more than $900 million that legally trump could take as a loss and then not have to pay taxes. right. it s obviously not good for trump. it comes at a bad time. what exactly is he being accused of if you think about it? not paying more than he needed to in his federal taxes. that s a pretty high standard. did hillary pay more than the feds wanted her to pay last year? no. really what you re looking at is a corrupt tax code, part of a rotten system, and the people benefiting from that system, all the lobbyists in my neighborhood have gotten rich in the past eight years, are 100% behind hillary, as is every corporate chieftain in america. it could be sort of a perfect moment for trump to say the system is rotten. i know because i m benefiting from it, and other people benefiting from it are supporting her. that should tell you everything. tom, what about that argument? he puts out this picture and he references it all the time of the big stack of documents that he has to file. he says with the irs whenever he files taxes. is that a compelling argument for him to make in the wake of this story that many people say is just negative and doesn t play well? i think david is right in the sense that he doesn t have to worry about his base. they re on his side. we re near the end here. the people who would have qualms about trump would have had those qualms a while ago and are not coming back. to tucker s point, the morality here, the issue of the equities of tax policy and what the democrats would call the equality movement, his opportunity is to say what tucker says in the sense of, look, this is the system. this is why this organization is paying this rate, near zero. this is why this organization is paying substantially higher, because they don t have access to those various loopholes. the tax code is something that every american really 90% of americans will have experienced, and not good experience. so it s articulatable in a way that in these closing five weeks gives him that opportunity. i don t know if this is going to be sort of a boon or an opportunity for trump but i think it is a wash. i think it doesn t matter f. you re still with trump, you re with trump. the voters who are going to swing this election are republicans who are terrified of trump s temperament. that is the defining issue. those voters are likely go to stay home and not support hillary, in which case trump can win. if they get over their loathing of hillary and vote for her, she wins. those are the people that say, wow, he made fun of someone collapsing in the street when she didn t feel well. that s not the temperament that i m looking for. wow, he says watch a sex tape about a miss universe. that s not really the temperament i m looking for in a president. it s not about the taxes. it s really not. it s not about the fact that ep has some racists in his crowd. it s always about whether he can keep it together as commander in chief. before we leave the tax issue, forbes reported back in 2014 that the new york times paid no taxes and went into all the reasons why. there are many companies who don t under the law as tucker says. g.e. was tagged with not paying. okay. tucker, let s turn to this next part, and this is the clinton audio from a clinton fund-raiser talking about bernie sanders supporters and what they were kind of promised. i am occupying from the center left to the center right, and i don t have much company there. there is a sense of disappointment among young people about politics. they re children of the great recession, and they are living in their parents basement, and the idea that maybe, just maybe, you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing. basically she goes on to say that they were sold a bill of goods that wasn t practical. there s been a lot of debate about who the real hillary is. i think we can be certain when she speaks to donors, that s who she really is. do you think she s center left to center right? i think she probably is temperamentally. i know she has contempt for the left and for the right. that s part of her problem. a key part of governing is having empathy, and she clearly has contempt for the losers in the globalization deal that we ve had, both on the left and the right. does this do anything for her turnout with they re very concerned about millennials. they ought to be. you think your average rural white guy dislikes hillary? on neither group likes hillary at all, in this latter category, it s a big problem for her. have you seen a lot of face piercings with your baristas? i think the headline was actually worse than the rhetoric. if you listen to the full remarks of what she said, there s actually nothing wrong there. she has a lot of empathy for the problems millennials faced. she was a little inartful in how she put it but i don t think this causes her lasting damage. she has a lot more problems than this. if this is her worst day between now and election day, they are going to be very, very happy in brooklyn. but it would be helpful if they didn t have to deal with headlines like this. the key for her and this is why the debates are key, is giving the full democratic base a reason to show up because hillary clinton has more voters available to her than donald trump does. the question is do they care enough to show up? two polls really quickly. five is about the four-way vote among independents. this has trump, tom, at 41%. clinton at 29%. and there you see the third party candidates, 21% and 3%. then number seven, the biggest motivation for voting for president, this kind of fits with what a.b. was saying. fear other candidate wins. 57%. enthusiasm for the candidate, 39%. i think this election is about the mastery of discontent, discontent towards the opposite, come to me. you might not like me, but ultimately you have to be drawn to me because you detest the other candidate. it s going to be that mobilization towards election day. we saw the audio. we saw the potential october surprises coming. the russians are still lurking around as they always do with elections. there is a lot more to come. again, it will be about that mastery of, you know, to borrow a white house term, the narrative. because there is so much discontent across the board that that becomes a weapon. ten seconds, a.b. another shoe drops? it will be raining shoes between now and november 8th, yeah. the kremlin. imelda mark oes. final thoughts when we come back. guess what guys, i switched to sprint. sprint? i m hearing good things about the network. all the networks are great now. we re talking within a 1% difference in reliability of each other. and, sprint saves you 50% on most current national carrier rates. save money on your phone bill, invest it in your small business. wouldn t you love more customers? i would definitely love some new customers. sprint will help you add customers and cut your costs. switch your business to sprint and save 50% on most current verizon, at&t and t-mobile rates. don t let a 1% difference cost you twice as much. whoooo! for people with hearing loss, visit sprintrelay.com. our show is heading back on the road. to our showmo is heading back t on the road. tomorrow and tuesday, special report will be at the normal 6:00 p.m. eastern time, but will be from farmville, virginia, on the camp us of longwood university. speaking of that v.p. showdown, make sure you tune in tuesday night. megyn kelly and i will steer you through the pre- and post-debate coverage tuesday. one last thing tonight. congratulations to the u.s. ryder cup team for a huge win today. bringing the ryder back to the u.s. for the first time since 2008. the europeans had won eight of the past ten ryder cups and the biennial event. and i ve talked about this before. i m a golfer, a huge golf fan. and the golf today was honestly some of the most exciting to watch ever. it s not all about the whispering. so thanks to both teams for that, and congratulations davis love, getting doused by champagne right there. thanks for inviting us into your home tonight. that is it for this special report on sunday. fair, balanced and still unafraid. justice with judge jeanine is up next. we ll be back tomorrow, 6:00 p.m. eastern time. i m chris wallace with new reports trump may have paid no federal income taxes for years. he and clinton plot their strategies for the campaign s final five weeks. the clintons are a distorted path. we will be the very bright and clean future. trump threatens to go after bill clinton s sex scandal. impeachment for like, remember that? impeach. and attacking the former mrs. universe. a lot of things are coming out about her. i m not going to say anything, i couldn t care less. we ll talk to new jersey governor chris christie and a top advisor about
one bernie sanders supporters clinton describes. the idea that maybe, just maybe you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing. and about bernie sanders s whole free college idea? they wanted meanwhile, the balance for power in congress is up. the senate majority hangs in the balance. it could go either way. all you need to know in national world and political news to start your week. special report starts right now. good evening. welcome to washington. i m bret baier. the message from the two presidential campaigns tonight, trust no one. it has been a weekend of damage and spin control after the leaking of potentially damaging information about both hillary clinton and donald trump. we have fox team coverage tonight. mike emanuel with the hillary clinton campaign which is dealing with that leaked audio. but we begin with senior national correspondent john roberts outside trump tower tonight in new york on donald trump s tax returns. good evening, john. bret, good evening to you. donald trump spent much of the day preparing for next sunday s debaten lois st. louis, and campaign insiders say he will be ready for his next face-off with hillary clinton. one of the issues that he ll likely have to grapple with, new questions raised about the unauthorized release of his partial tax returns from the year 1995. the new york times reports that in 1995, donald trump declared a loss of nearly a billion dollars from the collapse of his casino empire, the trump shuttle and ill-fated purchase of the plaza hotel. without any proof that he did, the times went on to say trump could have used that loss to avoid paying any taxes for 18 years. trump surrogates were dispatched to fight back, praising his business acumen. there is no one who has shown more genius in the way to maneuver around the tax code as he rightfully used the laws to do that. this is part of the tax code. the man is a genius. he knows how to operate the tax code for the benefit of the people he serves. the explanation mirrored what mitt romney said about taxes in 2012. i pay all of the taxes that are legally required and not a dollar more. but the clinton campaign portrayed it as the sort of bombshell romney warned was lurking in trump s tax returns. it shows the colossal scale of his business failures in the 1990s which probably hit a nerve and he s probably ashamed of today. and he crashed businesses into bankruptcy and leaving scores of businesses unpaid and people really hurting with the losses his companies have suffered, but he walks away unscathed. the trump campaign did not dispute the fact of the reports but said the returns were illegally obtained and threatened legal action and the campaign insists trump has paid hundreds of millions of dollars in property taxes, sales and excise taxes, real estate taxes, city tax, state tax, employee taxes and federal and state taxes. this is a good story for trump. there is no information in the story that said mr. trump did not pay taxes, all they did is quote the law which said if you have that kind of loss, you can use that kind of loss to offset income for 18 years. the release of the tax returns appeared to derail trump s rally in mannheim, pennsylvania last night. trump went way off script, at one point mock clinton s september 11th fainting spell. and threatening to bring up bill clinton s infidelities at the next debate, suggesting she play have been unfaithful to him. i don t even think she s loyal to bill, if you want to know the truth. and really, folks, really, why should she about, right? plenty of republicans, including newt gingrich are warning trump against talking about bill clinton s infidelities during the next debate, fearing that they could lose women voters en masse. on the income tax front, democrats over the next week will no doubt ratchet up the pressure for trump to release more recent returns. pressure trump, insists, that he is determined to resist. john roberts outside of trump tower. john, thank you. the clinton team is trying to walk back or massage the nominee s private comments about bernie sanders supporters who happen to be mainly a lot of young voters she s eagerly trying to court. mike emanual is following that story from akron, ohio. good evening, mike. bret, good evening. donald trump tonight said bernie sanders should pull his endorsement of hillary clinton. trump said clinton deceived sanders and then attacked him and his supporters. there is a sense of disappointment among young people about politics. they re children of the great recession, and they are living in their parents basements. and the idea that maybe, just maybe you could be part of a political revolution is pretty appealing. today clinton s campaign manager was asked to explain the hacked audio from clinton s conversation with donors back in february. she was talking about young people that she met that were frustrated that they graduated from college and went into an economy where they couldn t find the job they wanted. her current opponent trump pounced, tweeting crooked h. is nasty to sanders supporters behind closed doors and owned by wall street and politicians, hrc is not with you. her former rival senator bernie sanders blamed college affordability and not clinton. what she was saying there is absolutely correct. and that is you got millions of young people, many of whom took out loans in order to go to college, hoping to go out and get decent paying good jobs. saying you know what? they re unable to do that. but when confronted by many of his supporters holding back from embracing clinton, sanders did not push. we live in a tough world. this country faces enormous crises, as we do as a planet. and i would like people simply i m not going to tell people how to vote and in addition to win over sanders supporters and millennials, clinton is trying to firm up backing in the african-american community. clinton visited a predominantly african american church in charlotte. we do know this family and this community is in pain. following the recent keith lamont scott shooting in charlotte, clinton reiterated a call for better policing and pledged much more. we have to take a broader approach. and we ve got to look at education and jobs and housing and how we best do that and how we bring everybody to the table. breaking this hour, we ve got basketball superstar lebron james of the cleveland cavaliers endorsing hillary clinton for president. that may help her here in the buckeye state. clinton is set to return here to ohio tomorrow after not being here for the past month or so. there have been reports suggesting clinton is ready to write off the buckeye state, but her aides insist that is not the case. bret? mike, thanks. obviously on election night we ll be very interested about the balance of power in congress, and specifically in the senate, because it really does hang in the balance this election. here you see a map where all of the senate candidates running this cycle are up. the blue and red are states where one u.s. senate candidate is up. the gray does not have a senate race this cycle. you can see the breakdown here, but let s look bigger picture here. this is the majority. 54 republicans to 46 democrats. it is actually 45 democrats with one independent who caucuses with the democrats. but this is the majority. it takes 51 for the majority for 50-plus one and we ll explain that in a second. as of tonight, this is the average of polls in these races. even if it is a razor thin margin and the election were held today this is how it would break down. democrats as of tonight would pick up wisconsin. ron johnson would lose there. illinois, mark kirk would go down. evan bayh in indiana would pick up the indiana senate race as well as pennsylvania as of tonight. pat toomey, the incumbent would lose there. and even in north carolina, as of tonight, the average polls has a richard burr, the incumbent, going down. now for the republican side, you have a pickup tonight in nevada. and the rest are a hold. you have new hampshire holding for kelly ayotte, florida holding for marco rubio, and obviously john mccain a big winner in arizona. the rest of these states as of tonight stay exactly the same. look at these numbers. 50/50, tie. so whoever wins the presidency then is the tie-breaker. if hillary clinton wins, vice vice president kahne is the tie-breaking vote and democrats take the majority of the u.s. senate. if donald trump wins, vice president pence is the tie-breaker and republicans win. and that is how much the u.s. senate hangs in the balance and how close it is. now on the house side, it is a different picture. 247 to 188. most polls will tell you it is very, very slim chance that republicans lose the majority. they may lose some seats, according to the polls, but not many and it is likely that house speaker paul ryan will be the speaker of the house on november 9th. there are many interesting races across the country with interesting people. one of the most interesting house races is in california where the son of a political icon is going up against a new face in the republican party, running an interesting race in california. chief correspondent jonathan hunt lays it out for us from salinas. scratch the surface of the california agricultural 20th congressional district, an area voted overwhelmingly democratic in the past and a fascinating political race is shaping up. i m not supporting donald trump. republican candidate in casey lucius who is not being shy about disavowing the top of the republican ticket, and a democrat with a famous name. you know my politics. you know my platform, you know my family. jimmy panetta is the son of leon panetta and former white house chief of staff and former cia director and former secretary of defense. i m proud of my last name. i am proud of the service i was taught that service isn t a choice. it is an expectation. panama served in afghanistan as an intelligence officer with the navy reserve and is a deputy district attorney focusing on violent gangs. i haven t been handed anything. i work hard and want to work hard for you. his republican opponent is a navy veteran and professor of national security of the naval post graduate school and she s well aware she faces an uphill battle in terms of name recognition. obviously it is difficult. but it does speak to the establishment politics which is exactly what people are tired of this year. reporter: you have said very publicly, you will not be voting for donald trump. the top of your own ticket. why not. we do rely on migrant labor and we need immigration reform so his immigration policy would not work for the residents of my district. i disagree with his trade policies and i just disagree with his foreign policy. both candidates acknowledge immigration may be the biggest single issue in this district, but panetta argues he is more committed to comprehensive reform. i don t just want to take it piecemeal, i want to make sure that we have people willing to tackle that wholeheartedly, dealing with border security, dealing with the visa process, dealing with a pathway to citizenship and making sure that we have people who are able to come out of the shadows. are you confident of a victory in november? yes, we are confident. i feel very good going into november. there is no reliable polling since the primary in june in which under california rules, the top two vote-getters advance to the general election regardless of party. in that primary vote, jimmy panetta beat casey lucius by some 50 points. bret? that is one of the races we ll follow. jonathan, thank you. one quick correction. i said there was unindependent caucus and there is two. angus king from maine and bernie sanders from vermont. let s look, though, at the house. the balance of power in the house. senior capitol hill producer chad pergram is with us tonight. and what is the balance of power. democrats will win seats in the house of representatives and the question is how many. and one of the interesting things about this election is that republicans have a very good firewall which was put in after the 2010 census. redistricting really worked in the republican favor in 2010 and here you have the democrats getting the nominee who they really want this year in donald trump, somebody who they ought to be able to clean house with and they are really not that close to winning control of the house of representatives. they are going to pick up some seats. the question is could there be a wave at the very end. and we saw a wave in 2006 and 1994 when you have the big seat representatives. 30 plus seats. that is exactly what they need this time around. and house minority leader nancy pelosi is saying, just wait. nobody thought we were going to win at this point in 2006 and it turned into a wave. and it turned into a wave in 2010, much closer to the time. so it is like saying, you see a wave. we are not even at the beach. now the senate majority leader mitch mcconnell knows this is a jump ball going in here and he said as much just a couple of days ago. we have got knockdown, drag out, sort of like a knife fight in a phone booth and new hampshire, pennsylvania, ohio, wisconsin, illinois, nevada, indiana, florida. we seem to have gotten some distance in ohio. but everywhere else, it could go either way. and the key here might be republican incumbents who won in their primaries. that is not the case in 2010 and 2012. and so that is the kind of firewall in the united states senate this time for republicans. they were able to get marco rubio, the senator of course who ran for president to run. there was concern he would not run. he said he was done with politics. and that might be the key at the end of the day. there is a lot more republican seats on the field here compared to democratic seat this is cycle and that is why democrats are starting to get into some other races here in north carolina and missouri. and quick on the senate, if it pans out like i did at the big board, 50/50 and it is the presidential race that breaks the tie, you also have the possibility that someone in the middle, in either party, could switch like we saw with jim jeffords in vermont. right. and balance of power. and going into the election, right after the election in 2000. trent lott and tom daschle who are the republican leaders that year, they forged an agreement that came to pass in may of that year when jeffords switched parties. and it started out with republicans were in control and jeffords switched parties. and he talked caucus with the democrats and that power sharing came into play and daschle was in the majority for six or seven months. it is fascinating. very quickly what, is left on the table for congress that possibly factors in here. right. a couple of things here. merritt garland, that was the big push by democrats to try to move merritt garland through the senate. that didn t work out. democrats were going to try to make that a race for chuck grassley who is up in a swing state in iowa, chairman of the judiciary committee and against patty judge and the other thing left on the table was a contempt of congress citation for bryan pagliano. he is the i.t. specialist, the former i.t. specialist at the state department who set up the personal server for hillary clinton. they will hold him in contempt probably in november. but the republicans really wanted to do that before the election, continuing to push the issues with hillary clinton that she is not trustworthy and begging the question what really went on with that e-mail server. and the immunity questions obviously how that was divvied out by the department of justice. chad, as always, thank you for the update. up next, we ll compare and contrast the tax policies of hillary clinton and donald trump. but first here is what fox affiliates around the country are covering tonight. wsvn in miami where more zika carrying mosquitos have been captured in another miami beach area. the federal agricultural department says it s the sixth time mosquitos have been found in the region but the first time in the last two weeks. fox 32 in chicago where at least 36 people have been shot in another violent weekend there. at least two people have died so far. a 17-year-old girl shot in the head early on saturday morning. and a 35-year-old man was killed in another neighborhood about half an hour later. that makes at least 527 homicides in chicago so far this year. it is early october. this is a live look at new york from our affiliate fox 5. one of the big stories there, a u.s. official telling the associated press federal rail officials found dozens of violations in new jersey s transit system months before thursday s commuter train crash into that hoboken station. one woman was on the platform and she was killed by debris. more than 100 people were injured. federal data indicates new jersey transit trains have been involved in more than 150 accidents since the start of 2011. that s tonight s life look outside the beltway from special report. we ll be right back. little dakota s nose was quivering in fear. because it knew an ordinary tissue was near. the fiery tissue left her nose sore and red. so dad slayed the problem with puffs plus lotion, instead. puffs have pillowy softness for dakota s tender nose. with lotion to comfort and soothe when she blows. don t get burned by ordinary tissues. a nose in need deserves puffs, indeed. now get puffs plus lotion in the squeezable softpack. one of the areas in which hillary clinton and trump differ the most is taxes. correspondent christen fisher is here to break that down for us. good evening. hey, bret. in the midst of this unconventional campaign season, this is one issue where both trump and clinton have produced plans in line with traditional republican and democratic values. trump wants to cut taxes and clinton wants to raise them. if you are in the top income bracket, trump would cut your tax rate from 33% down from 39.6%. and that is identical to the tax plan put forward by house speaker paul ryan. but under clinton s plan, if you make more than a million dollars a year, you would be subjected to a minimum 30% tax rate. and if you make more than $5 million a year, would you be hit with a 4% fair share surcharge that would create a new top tax bracket of 43.6%, while trump would cut the current tax brackets down to three, 12, 25 and 33%. that would help anyone earning less than $195,000 a year. as for clinton, she said flat out she will not raise taxes on the middle class and defines that as anyone making less than $250,000 a year. and if you run a business, the clinton wouldn t touch the corporate tax rate, which is currently at 35%. but look at this. trump would cut to it 15%. listen to how trump and clinton tried to spin this part of his plan during his first debate. that is going to be a job creator like we haven t seen since ronald reagan. it is going to be a beautiful thing to watch. companies will come. they will build. they will expand. it would be the most extreme version, the biggest tax cuts for the top percent of the people in this country that we ve ever had. i call it trumped up trickle down because that is exactly what it would be. so what kind of an impact would these two tax plans really have on our economy? well experts say clinton s plan would increase federal revenues by about $1.1 trillion over the next ten years. as for trump, his latest plan has yet to be scored, but he insists it would produce the deficit by $2.6 trillion over the same time period and the tax plans could be one of the hottest topics at the next debate. and we ll continue to do the compare and contrast on policies here on sunday. i like it. thank you. thank you. let s get some insight now on the trump tax controversy, the rest of the campaign news and where this race stands tonight. karl rove is a republican strategist, former senior adviser to president george w. bush. he joins us from austin, texas. and joe trippi who of course has worked on several presidential campaigns. he is in richmond, virginia. okay, guy, let s first put up the average of polls that we look at, the most recent polls. we ve got the fox average, if you will. it has hillary clinton up just slightly in the average of polls. and you could see it right there on the screen. and then if you put up the electoral map as we have it, these are states that as of the average tonight of the polls in these various states, hillary clinton has 263 to donald trump s 171, 104 are toss-ups. this is as of tonight. it can shift. it can change. 270 is what you need to win the presidency. karl, your thoughts on the state of the race right now. well, it has been a bad week for trump. he had a pretty good debate the first 30 minutes. he did well. and then, since then, rather than talking about things people care about, he is focused on a former miss universe whose name came up in the debate and for reasons beyond me he is focused on her rather than the news available to him each and every day. monday the fbi came out and said 10.8% jump in murders and over the last year. tuesday director combey is grilled by congress over his investigation on the clinton investigation. and forces going to iraq. no status of forces agreement. thursday the gao comes out and slams the administration over funding of obama care. and rather than talking about these kind of things, on friday the release of the bernie sanders comments by hillary clinton. rather than talking about these, donald trump has been talking, tweeting and shouting about a former miss universe. it s just beyond me. okay, joe. how does the tax story play? it depends on i don t know what they are doing. i agree with karl, that he had all of this momentum and went into the debate, i thought he was doing well at the beginning of it and then just sort of unraveled and he s been unraveling every since. and even the handle of the tax stuff, they are not getting in front of anything. and it looked like, at his rally, where he started going after hillary for the pneumonia stuff and she wasn t loyal to bill, he is not even addressing it. he s sort of he s throwing things out that i think have to really worry a lot of the republicans, particularly those running in the tight senate races, having to defend this stuff. so right now, it is all going against him at this moment. but let me ask you this, joe. do think that you have a situation here with the clinton team looking at these numbers and say, this is not a guy that is running a traditional campaign. they are not the numbers aren t moving a great deal. and this is still an anti-establishment and anti-elitist kind of atmosphere out there. are they concerned that if they don t see the numbers move significantly in coming days, that they still have a fight on november 8th? well, look, they are going to have a fight on november 8th. but the clinton side of this is, whenever the focus is on one of them, whoever has the focus doesn t do very well. it was that it was that she wasn t doing well in the weeks prior to the debate. then all of a sudden the focus is back to trump, they want to keep it there and they want and they want to just keep throwing out bait and hoping he keeps going for it. i think we re going to see that for the next 30 days. i do think, though, that they also believe that they could get their the early voting started and they could get their vote out and that is what they are concentrating on. and the longer trump sort of is reacting badly and sort of pushing off, i don t think they are that worried at all. he keeps bringing attention to him. they keep getting out their vote. that is sort of the plan right now and i think it is working for them. in this environment, karl, what is mike pence s mission come tuesday for this debate. put the focus back on change. the argument ought to be are you in favor of change with trump-pence or in favor of status quo with clinton-kaine. and this week again, the most that wasn t the most valuable if not the most valuable a presidential candidate has at this point in the campaign is time. and we ve chewed up here we had 42 days, the morning after the debates between that day and the election day and donald trump has use four or five or six days, depending on how you look at it, as only as being largely or only connected to miss universe. and he has got to push the change dynamic and my suspicion is on tuesday night we ll see two people on the stage who both of them are going to come off well, but i think pence is going to hit hard the dynamic of do you like where the country is going? are you in favor of the direction that it is headed? if not, come with us, if you are comfortable with the way things are, go with the status quo of clinton-kaine. okay. i want you, both of you to go back to the electoral map real quick and pick out one state that you think is important for either campaign. and we ll put up the average of polls in that state. karl, you re first. let s go with florida. let s put up the rpc average of florida polls there. it has clinton up 44.7 to 43.5. this is critical, because if trump wins florida, and i think he has a good chance of winning it, then he could win the white house. if he loses florida, in all likelihood he will not win the contest. because democrats have taken 18 states and the district of columbia and all six of the last presidential elections, all six, 242 electoral votes in those states. if he wins florida, that kicks and then he has a good start. if she wins florida, she s at 271 and if she wins the states that they ve carried the last six times. so he has to win florida and it could put him on the path to the white house and if not, very difficult for to see a path that gets him there. and joe, your state? north carolina. let s put up the average in north carolina. it is trump 43.1 to clinton 42.3. this is a state that barack obama won in 2008 and lost narrowly by a half a point in 2012. i think the clinton campaign is going throw everything but the kitchen sink at trying to pull this state out. and if they do, particularly in karl is right, that florida could tip to trump, then north carolina ends up slamming the door on them. if they get florida and north carolina, forget it, it is over. so i think they are going to throw everything at it. and i think getting out their vote, that is that is the concentration. they are going into that effort right now and i think trump and the gop is woefully behind. it is better on the republican party that has gotten better but the trump campaign just doesn t have the apparatus in place, i don t think. all right, gentlemen. as always, thank you very much. by the way, north carolina also an interesting senate race there that could be the balance of power. as we just said, we are two days away from the only debate between the vice presidential candidates. democratic senator tim kaine and republican governor mike pence. special report is on the road at longwood university in farmville, virginia starting tomorrow and then tuesday 6:00 p.m. eastern. then megyn kelly will join me 8:50 p.m. debate night coverage on tuesday night. last monday s first top of the ticket class between hillary clinton and donald trump has sparked complaints about media bias. tonight national correspondents william lajeunesse looks at a new way to track exactly what is being reported about the debates. here is what we can do. we can deploy half a billion more solar panels and have enough clean energy to power every home. do you remember that part of the debate? probably not? because that sound bite wasn t replayed over and over again. we know that a lot of people itself, but from how tv news reports it. that is no secret. but until now no one quantified how that happens. for the first time analysts measured exactly how many times the tv networks replayed the same sound bite in their post-debate coverage. i will release my tax returns, against my lawyer s wishes, when she releases her 33,000 e-mails that have been deleted. that was the most aired ten seconds of the debate. according to the internet archives. followed by clinton s response on stamina. well, as soon as he travels to 112 countries and negotiates a peace deal, he could talk to me about stamina. third, her counter punch and on preparation. you know what else i prepared for? i prepared to be president. that played 11 times on four morning shows. what we know from the political science research is that both the debate and more particularly the media coverage of the debate do have a smaller effect on voters preferences. not huge. the largest effects historically about two to three points. example, in 2000 voters scored for the first debate for al gore. but after the media hammered him for his exaggerated audible sighs and eye rolls, bush gained in the polls. 1976 voters didn t know what gerald ford said about the soviets in europe to be a gaff until the media highlighted it. in 2004 a focus group watching the kerry/bush debate gave to it kerry. a second group watching the post debate commentary called it for bush. not everyone has time to watch a full 90 minute debate. people will turn on the morning news and say what they favorite newscaster said about something and that will be their takeaway. what got the least amount of coverage? the first 40 minutes where trump talked about the economy and jobs and later bashed clinton on nafta and tpp. bret? william, thank you. still ahead, why critics of the statewide push to raise the minimum wage in maine say it might backfire on the poor. but first, why you could get the feeling you are being watched when you vote in november. you ve got to go out and you ve got to get your friends, and you ve got to get everybody you know, and you got to watch your polling booths. got to wat your polling booths. i used to blame the weather for my frizz. turns out my curls needed to be stronger. pantene s pro-v formula makes my curls so strong. .they can dry practically frizz free. because strong is beautiful. you may notice your polling place is a little more crowded this november than in years past. that is because there may be volunteers keeping their eye on you. senior correspondent eric shawn is in new york tonight to tell us why. hi, eric. good evening, bret. there likely will be more than just election officials at your polling place watching. but an army, recruited to look out for any possible wrongdoing. kathy plans to keep an eagle eye on the vote. we are going to poll watch or as they say poll observe. the ohio donald trump supporter has heeded the call from the trump campaign to sign up as a poll watcher in cleveland. the effort the latest move by political parties and other groups to deploy volunteers to monitor the election. you get to be inside the precinct election board. and you can you actually can in pennsylvania, you can keep track of everyone that comes to vote. you could ask the board every hour how many republicans and how many democrats and how many independents, keep a running track of it. you just watch what is going on. in 46 states, private citizens could challenge voter qualifications either on or before election day except in alabama, kansas, oklahoma, and wyoming. in ohio, groups like trump s can observe but not challenge voters. the poll watching group that gained the most attention is the houston based true the vote. in six years it said thousands of poll watchers have been trained saying they act properly. but critics have long charged that such citizen efforts could be too aggressive and lead to voter intimidation and suppression. there is a significant risk of discriminatory conduct. wendy wiser of the brennan center for justice says poll watchers have been repeatedly shown to challenge voters based on race. she said in such a heated election as this one, officials should check voters, not private groups. it is illegal for people to target voters on a discriminatory basis. it is illegal for people to behave in an intimidating way. and that includes directly confronting voters or using any threatening language or raising your voice. and it s illegal to disrupt the polling place or to otherwise try to purposefully interfere with eligible people participating. but kathy said she will do the right thing. it is a way to watch what is going on and make sure that everyone gets a chance to vote, regardless of who they are voting for. that their vote is their vote. and it counts. true the vote said its watchers are prohibited from talking directly voters to prevent any possible problems. as for the trump campaign, it did not respond to our request for information. and kathy tells me she is still waiting for poll training information too, but also says she can t wait. bret? a lot to cover on this topic. we ll see you next week. thfnlgts. will do. voters in maine have a big decision to make. should they increase the minimum wage. critics say it could risk jobs and supporters discount that. correspondent douglas kennedy looks at the situation tonight from portland, maine. my dad started his first restaurant in 54. not too far from here. steve has been working in restaurants since he was eight years old. you handle pickles like nobody s business. so the restaurant business really has a very slim margin of profit. that, it does. we hope for most service restaurants hope for a 4% or a 5% bottom line. it is a struggle. some years we make it and some years we don t. exactly why he opposed a ballot measure in maine that would raise the minimum wage for tip workers to $12 an hour by 2024. demilo said making a slim margin at his restaurant in portland all but disappear. currently you have to pay your waiters and waitresses $3.75 an hour. correct. so this is a huge expense. it s a huge expense. by the time this ramps up to $12 an hour, it is enough we are talking about changing the whole format of our restaurant. changing the whole format he says could mean eliminating tips and possibly even cutting out wait staff altogether. seven states have this policy in place where tipped workers make the same minimum wage and tipping is alive and well and the industry is doing well. will eikhart is from maine small business, an advocacy group supporting the measure, which would also raise the minimum wage for all other workers from $7.50 to $12 an hour by 2020. $7.50 an hour is about $300 a week. you can t live on that. supporters of the ballot measures say when workers make more money, they will spend more money in maine stores and restaurants. boosting maine s economy. but it is a prediction not everyone is buying. charles hughes is from the cato institute and has studied the effect of minimum wage increases on the economy. in the past when the minimum wage has been increased, firms in attempt to absorb the high labor have held off on expanding . some have had to close completely. and some have reduced the number of workers they re able to plo. it s an argument allie has heard before. working for $3.75 an hour is hard. she is a waitress in portland and she said when tips disappear in the off season, she can t pay her bills. as soon as the summer dies off and you have fall and winter how do you live on $3.75 an hour. so there are some workers that say in the off season the tips are nonexistent or very low and they simply can t get by on the current minimum wage. what do you say to them? i say the wait staff, probably in any restaurant in the state of maine, is making well above minimum wage and they take the good with the bad. he said having no job is much worse. which is exactly what he said will happen if maine passes the hike. in portland, douglas kennedy, fox news. next up, the trump tax headlines and the fallout. and hillary clinton s basement dweller comment about bernie sanders supporters. we ll talk about all of it and the rest of the campaign news when the panel joins me after a quick break. when the panel joins me after a quick break. because i m a woman. do you think i m gonna crack under pressure or conquer the field? defy expectations any day with always infinity. made with flexfoam. absorbs 10x its weight. rewrite the rules. always. we can t go back to the years of devastating cuts to public education. exactly why i urge you to vote yes on prop 55. prop 55 prevents $4 billion in new education cuts without raising taxes on anyone. and there s strict accountability in prop 55. with local control over school funding decisions. and mandatory annual audits guaranteeing the money goes directly to our classrooms. not to bureaucracy, not to administration. so vote yes on 55. because it helps our children thrive. maybe he doesn t want the american people, all of you watching tonight, to know that he s paid nothing in federal taxes. that makes me smart. if he paid zero, that means zero for troops, zero for vets and zero for schools or health. now, if not paying taxes makes him smart, what does that make all of the rest of us. we are talking about 26 years ago. perfectly legal. we should get that straight immediately. there is a perfectly legal application of the tax code. and he would have been a fool not to take advantage of it. what it shows is what an absolute mess the federal tax code is and that is why donald trump is the person best positioned to fix it. this is the story that drove a lot of news today. the new york times had this store yes and we asked the question before about donald trump s tax returns in our fox polls. does the fact that donald trump not released his tax returns bother you or is it no big deal. bothers me, 46%, no big deal 52% and today trump tweeting, i know our complex tax laws better than anyone who has ever run for president and then i m the only one who can fix the them, #failingnew yorktimes. let s bring in the panel. host of fox and friends weekend. amy stoddard at real clear pollices, tom rogan and david destructor, senior congressional correspondent for the washington examiner. okay, david, how does it play? well, look, i think when you are dealing with both of these candidates who are both very unpopular and have a lot of problems, any day that you are on defense, any day you are not talking about your message and making your opponent explain all of their flaws and all of the challenges that they have, that is a losing day for you. and i think that coming out of the debate and out of the week that donald trump had, i don t think this does him any favor. does it cost him with his base? no. his base will never abandon him. but his challenge is to get from the base to just over the top and a little more than clinton and this does not help him get there. okay. we should point out, this is from 1995. the new york times said they got a manila envelope with the tax returns. tucker, in there was a loss of more than $900 million. that legally trump could take as a loss and then not have to pay taxes. right. for 15 number of years. this is not good for trump. it doesn t look good. it comes at a bad time. but what is he being accused of. if you think about it. not paying more than he needed to in a federal taxes. that s a pretty high standard. did hillary pay more than the feds wanted her to pay, did george or tom sire? no. really, what you re looking at, and i think trump should say this is a corrupt tax code, part of a rotten system. and the people benefitting from the system, all of my lobbyists are 100% behind hillary as is every corporate chief on the in america and as he he puts out the picture and references it of the big stack of documents that he has to file with the irs when he files taxes is that a compelling argfor hime say is negative and doesn t play well? he doesn t have to worry about his base. they are on his side. people have qualms about trump would have had those qualms a while ago. to tucker s point the morality and issue of equities of tax policy and democrats call the equality movement, his opportunity perspectively is to do, this is the system. this is why this organization is paying this rate of near zero and why this one is paying substantially higher because they don t have access. the tax code is something that every american really, 90% will have experience of and not good experience. it is articulatable in the way it gets him that opportunity. i don t know if this is going to end up boog a boon or opportunity for trump. i think it is a wash. if you are still with trump you re with trump. the voters are republicans who are terrified of trump s temperament. that is the defining issue. those voters will stay home. if they get over their loathing of hillary and vote for her she wins. those are the people that say you may have thought of someone classy. that is not the temperament that i m looking for. he says watch a sex tape and tweet it about a miss universe. it s not about the taxes. it s really not. it s not about the fact that he has racism. it is always about whether or not he can keep it together as commander in chief. before we leave the tax issue, forbes reported at the new york times pay no taxes. and went through all reasons why many companies who don t. ge was tucker, let s turn to this next part and this is the clinton audio from a clinton fundraiser talking about bernie sanders supporters and what they were kind of promised. there is a sense of disappointment among young people about politics. they are children of the great recession and they are living in their parents basement. the idea that maybe you could be part of a political revolution. i think we can be certain when she speaks to donors she is as real as ever. do you think she is center left or center right? i know she has contempt for the left and the right. that is part of her problem. a key part of governing is having empathy over people who you rule. she has contempt for the losers. does this do anything for her turnout? concerned about the millennials. this one group, do you think your average rural white guy dislikes hillary? you are marginally more. they just don t neither group likes hillary at all. in the latter category it is a big problem for her. have you seen all how about just a millennial question? i think the headline is worse than the rhetoric. if you listen to what she said this is actually nothing wrong there. she had a lot of empathy for problems that millennials had faced. as usual with hillary clinton i don t think this causes lasting damage. she has a lot more problems than this. this is her worst day they are going to be very happy in brooklyn but it would be helpful for them if they didn t have to deal with headlines like this. the key for her and this is why the debates are key is giving the full democratic base a reason to show up. hillary clinton has more voters available to her than donald trump does. the question is do they care enough to show up. two polls quickly. five is about the four-way vote for independents. this has trump at 41%. clinton at 29% and then you see the third party candidates 21-3. number seven, the biggest motivation for voters for president i think this election is about mastery of discontent. discontent that you might not like me but you have to be joined to me because you detest the other candidate. it is that mobilization. we see this potential surprises coming. russians are lurking around as they always do. there is a lot more to come. it will be about that mastery of to borrow a white house term the narrative and campaign sentiment. there is so much discontent across the board. another shoe drops? i think it will be raining shoes. look out. final thoughts when we come back. why am i so devastatingly handsome, i m in a fragrance. .ad, and my sweethearts gone sayonara. this 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[ distorted voice ] progressive their competitors rates alongside their direct rate to save you money. but what s really going on? when played backwards at 1/8th speed you can clearly hear. what could that mean? woman: tom? tom! they re just commercials. or are they? you re waking the neighbors. well, mom, maybe the neighbors need to be woke. i think it s actually awoken. no, that doesn t even seem right. no, it s awoken. revealing the truth to help you save. our show is heading back on the road. tomorrow and tuesday special report will be at the normal 6:00 p.m. eastern time but will be from farmville, virginia on the campus of long wood university. speaking of the vp show down make sure you tune in tuesday night. we will see crow through the preand post debate coverage tuesday. one last thing tonight. congratulations to the u.s. ryder cup team for a huge win today bringing the ryder cup back to the u.s. for the first time since 2008. the europeans had won eight of the past ten ryder cups and i have talked about this before. i m a golfer, a huge golf fan and the golf today was honestly some of the most exciting to watch ever. not all about the whisperring. so thanks to both teams for that. congratulations. davis love getting doused by champagne. that is it for this special report on sunday. fair, balanced and still on the fray. just world series judge jeanine is up next. ccccchris and dana l you what start right now. hello, everyone, welcome to i ll tell you what and we have a lot of ground to cover this evening including latest polls and a look at north carolina, and could be biggest factor and dana will try to stump me with presidential trivia. in doubt. the top headlines of the day, first, a wild end to donald trump s taxing week as the republican nominee fights back after the not fat reports he have avoided federal income for almost two decades. meanwhile, hillary clinton