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Finding a Path to Peace in Ethiopia's Tigray Region

What’s new? After weeks of fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, federal troops removed the regional government and declared victory. Yet thousands have died, hundreds of thousands are at risk of starvation and the conflict continues. Addis Ababa has established an interim administration, but ousted Tigrayan politicians say they will fight back.
Why did it happen? Relations between Addis Ababa and Mekelle tanked after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed took office in 2018 and Tigray’s leaders lost federal power. Tensions spiked when Tigray defied central authority by holding regional elections in September, culminating when Tigrayan forces captured the national military command in the region, triggering federal intervention.

Ethiopia , New-york , United-states , Nazret , Oromiya , Adwa , Tigray , Eritrea , Edaga-hamus , United-arab-emirates , Nile , Nahr-an-nil

The Iran Nuclear Deal at Five: A Revival?

What’s new? The 2015 Iran nuclear deal has looked at best shaky since the Trump administration withdrew from it in 2018, imposing damaging economic sanctions on the Islamic Republic. In response, Tehran ramped up its nuclear activity in contravention of its obligations under the agreement. President-elect Joe Biden’s inauguration could mark an inflection point.
Why does it matter? Having failed to achieve its objectives, Trump’s “maximum pressure” strategy may be nearing an end. Restoring the nuclear deal, with its considerable non-proliferation benefits, could lead to wider U.S.-Iran diplomatic engagement. But one or both sides may be tempted to make additional demands, which would be a recipe for deadlock.

Iran , Jerusalem , Israel-general , Israel , Red-sea , Djibouti-general , Djibouti , United-states , Paris , France-general , France , United-kingdom

What Future for Afghan Peace Talks under a Biden Administration?

What’s new? Afghan peace talks have stalled in their opening rounds, as all parties wait for the incoming Biden administration to reveal what changes it might make to U.S. Afghanistan policy, particularly vis-à-vis the peace process and the U.S. military presence.
Why does it matter? The U.S. has been a primary driver of progress in peace talks, nudging two mistrustful parties forward. Peace in Afghanistan will ultimately depend on the conflict parties’ willingness to compromise, but Washington’s actions are also of vital importance.
What should be done? The U.S. should commit to continued support for the peace talks and resolve short-term challenges – including expectations of a military withdrawal by May 2021. The Taliban should commit to a significant reduction of violence, and Afghan political leaders should continue working toward a unified approach to peace.

United-states , Afghanistan , New-york , Qatar , Doha , Ad-daw-ah , Shamshad , North-west-frontier , Pakistan , United-kingdom , Iran , Washington

From Elections to Ceasefire in Myanmar's Rakhine State

What’s new? Following vote cancellations in conflict-affected areas of Rakhine state during the 8 November general election, Japan has helped broker an informal ceasefire between Myanmar’s military and the Arakan Army in order to hold supplementary elections. Both sides say they are in favour, but the civilian government is reluctant.
Why does it matter? The initiative has halted almost two years of intense fighting and enabled dialogue to resume for the first time since December 2019. Negotiations over elections could be a stepping stone to a formal ceasefire, but the process remains fragile, particularly without civilian government buy-in.
What should be done? The Arakan Army should release three National League for Democracy candidates it has detained. The civilian government should support elections and – if the Arakan Army lets the captives go – drop its designation as a terrorist organisation. The Tatmadaw should stop insisting that the Arakan Army leave Rakhine under a ceasefire.

Arakan , Yangon , Myanmar , Rakhine-state , Aung-hlaing , Ayeyarwady , Tokyo , Japan , Maungdaw , Panghsang , Shan-state , Beijing

How South Africa Can Nudge Zimbabwe toward Stability

What’s new? As Zimbabwe’s political and economic crises worsen, South Africa is moving beyond its policy of “quiet diplomacy” with its northern neighbour and applying more pressure on Harare to open up political space and reform its economy.
Why does it matter? With Zimbabwe’s people slipping further into destitution, crackdowns fostering a growing sense of grievance within the opposition, and political divisions pitting ruling-party members against one another, the country could tip into even greater crisis through mass unrest or another coup.
What should be done? Pretoria should press Harare to halt repression and start dialogue with the political opposition to address Zimbabwe’s economic woes. It should work with Washington on a roadmap for reforms that the U.S. and others can use to guide decisions on reversing sanctions and supporting debt relief for Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe , Australia , United-states , United-kingdom , Washington , South-africa , Angola , Bern , Switzerland , Syria , United-arab-emirates , Johannesburg

Disorder on the Border: Keeping the Peace between Colombia and Venezuela

What’s new? Crime and violence have simmered along the lengthy Colombian-Venezuelan frontier for decades. But the regional spillover of Venezuela’s political conflict and economic collapse has caused ties between the two states to fray as well, amid border closures, a migrant exodus and rival military exercises.
Why does it matter? Numerous armed groups clash with one another and harm citizens along a border marked by abundant coca crops and informal crossings. High bilateral tensions could spur escalating border hostilities while perpetuating the mistreatment of migrants and refugees whose movements have been restricted by COVID-19.
What should be done? Colombian and Venezuelan authorities should urgently establish communication channels to resolve violent incidents along the border, possibly with international backing. They should reopen formal border crossings as planned, but also increase humanitarian aid to help ensure that migrants and refugees are healthy and can move safely.

Venezuela , Colombia , Rastrojo , Lara , Zulia , La-guajira , El-tiempo , Magdalena , Tragedia , Departamento-de-cordoba , Amazonas , United-states