Nature is full of trivia. The moon moves about two inches away from the Earth each year. The Earth gets 100 tons heavier every day due to falling space dust. The climate, obviously, is part of nature. Climate, and natural disasters, impact our clients, people, insurance premiums, and the value of servicing in areas prone to hurricanes, flooding, forest fires, and earthquakes. A certain portion of those events (the number is increasing) are determined by FEMA to be natural disasters, and last year 3.4 million adults in the U.S. were at one point or another forced to evacuate their homes due to one, according to the Census Bureau. Approximately 1.4 percent of the American adult population. That’s a lot higher than historical averages, up to 800,000 on average for the years between 2008 and 2021. 12 percent were people displaced for over six months and 16 percent were adults who never returned home. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Research Institute for Housing Amer
As I type this piece on Friday morning, I am at the O’Hare aerodrome for a flight from Chicago to San Francisco. O’Hare is packed and humming… What economic slowdown? Does my opinion on the economy matter any more than yours, or… that of the guy running JPMorgan Chase? Last June CEO Jamie Dimon warned of an economic "hurricane" down the road. “Hurricane” is pretty sensationalist, especially when it hasn’t happened. This week he told Reuters that the U.S. economy was in “good shape.” It’s a safe bet that inflation will compel the Federal Open Market Committee to hike overnight interest rates above 5% (from the 4.50%-4.75% level it's at now). The Fed believes short-term rates will continue rising. If you had any questions, two Fed officials on Wednesday essentially echoed Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish opinion. Yet bond investors seem to be shrugging some of this off! If you knew tha
I travel a fair amount via commercial airplane. (Greetings today from Ft. Lauderdale; this afternoon it’ll be Chicago.) But forget traveling in heavier-than-air-craft: there are people who live in airplanes! Meet Jo Ann, a beautician. Let’s see this baby appraise out for a refi! But the price is right for anyone willing to make the effort, as airplane carcasses are very affordable. One big topic at the Bank of England Mortgage event going on here is how interest rates impact affordability. Last week the Commentary included a link to a “handy-dandy chart for LOs to help borrowers to see how rates impact affordability.” I received several emails pointing something out, succinctly summed up by Fairway’s Mike S. “A quick glance shows that only 20% of the population’s affordability is determined by interest rates. At 3%, 65% of the country is already priced out. At 9%, that number is 85%. That means for 80% of the population, the interest rat