Overestimating the power of intervention: Why COVID predictions are often wrong
Faye Flam Guest Columnist So are we having a fourth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. or not? University of Minnesota’s Michael Osterholm has forecast a COVID “Category 5 hurricane” this spring. To some people, a look at hard-hit Michigan could justify this level of alarm. But Paul Offit of the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia could also claim to be right with his much more optimistic view that vaccines will mostly tame the pandemic from this point forward. After all, U.S. death rates and hospitalizations are not spiking and may never return to anything close to the fall/wi...