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Two weeks into the war between Israel and Hamas, simultaneous cross-border clashes with Hezbollah in the disputed Shebaa Farms in the Golan Heights have sparked fears of an emerging second front on the southern border of Lebanon. With rising tensions between the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group and the state of Israel, what are the prospects that Hezbollah will formally enter the war? ....
The Middle East is undergoing a historic transformation with unprecedented opportunities to build new relationships, de-escalate tensions, and foster conditions for stronger integration. At the same time, the region remains on edge because of ongoing tensions in Yemen, Syria, Iraq, and other conflict zones, a civil war that broke out recently in Sudan, along with the overarching challenges presented by fraught relations between Iran, Israel, and several Arab Gulf countries with the longer-term implications of the still-fragile Iranian-Saudi rapprochement yet to be fully assessed. ....
Several countries in the MENA region have been facing financial crises of unprecedented gravity. The MENA Commission on Stabilization and Growth Report describes how debt ratios started rising after the Arab Uprisings as fiscal policies became more expansionary, and how this was further precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war, and the rise in global interest rates. The financial crises are especially acute in Lebanon, Egypt, and Tunisia, where external shocks have exacerbated deeply embedded structural weaknesses. ....
Post-Covid-19, the challenge of adjusting to high fuel and food prices, and to rising global interest rates, is particularly hard for the oil importing countries of the MENA region. Public debts are rising fast towards unsustainable levels. Already, currency devaluation and inflation are combining to lower economic growth, increase poverty, and put more stress on a battered middle-class, leading to a rise of social unrest. ....