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US interest rates: Economists expect Federal Reserve to defy investors and raise rates

A Financial Times-Booth survey finds most economists think the US central bank has more work to do to lower inflation.

Financial Times: Bank failures put pressure on Federal Reserve

PS Commentators Respond: Will the Earthquake Be a Political Game-Changer for Turkey?

Recent deadly earthquakes in southern Turkey – which have also devastated northwest Syria – have put President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) under intensifying pressure. With some 46,000 people killed, and the fallout continuing to grow, we asked PS commentators whether the tragedy will lead to a significant political shakeup after 20 years of AKP rule.

MIL-OSI USA: Brainard, What Can We Learn from the Pandemic and the War about Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy?

MIL-OSI USA: Brainard, What Can We Learn from the Pandemic and the War about Supply Shocks, Inflation, and Monetary Policy?
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What Can We Learn From The Pandemic And The War About Supply Shocks, Inflation, And Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard, At The 21st BIS Annual Conference Central Banking After The Pandemic: Challenges Ahead, Bank For International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

<p><span>Policymakers and researchers have begun reassessing certain features of the economy and monetary policy in light of recent experience. After several decades in which supply was highly elastic and inflation was low and relatively stable, a series of supply shocks associated with the pandemic and Russia s war against Ukraine have contributed to high inflation, in combination with a very rapid recovery in demand. The experience with the pandemic and the war highlights the challenges for monetary policy in responding to a protracted series of adverse supply shocks. In addition, to the extent that the lower elasticity of supply we have seen recently could become more common due to challenges such as demographics, deglobalization, and climate change, it could herald a shift to an environment characterized by more volatile inflation compared with the preceding few decades.</span></p>

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