What Can We Learn From The Pandemic And The War About Supply Shocks, Inflation, And Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Vice Chair Lael Brainard, At The 21st BIS Annual Conference Central Banking After The Pandemic: Challenges Ahead, Bank For International Settlements, Basel, Switzerland

<p><span>Policymakers and researchers have begun reassessing certain features of the economy and monetary policy in light of recent experience. After several decades in which supply was highly elastic and inflation was low and relatively stable, a series of supply shocks associated with the pandemic and Russia's war against Ukraine have contributed to high inflation, in combination with a very rapid recovery in demand. The experience with the pandemic and the war highlights the challenges for monetary policy in responding to a protracted series of adverse supply shocks. In addition, to the extent that the lower elasticity of supply we have seen recently could become more common due to challenges such as demographics, deglobalization, and climate change, it could herald a shift to an environment characterized by more volatile inflation compared with the preceding few decades.</span></p>

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