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NEW YORK — In 2021, the big debate about the outlook for the global economy focused on whether the rising inflation in the United States and other advanced economies was transitory or persistent. Key central banks and most Wall Street researchers were on “Team Transitory”. They attributed the problem to base effects and temporary supply bottlenecks, implying that the high
The degree of monetary-policy tightening needed to bring inflation under control will inevitably cause a recession and higher unemployment in many countries
Experts warn that inflation could be around for years, despite claims from the Fed and Biden administration that it is likely to wane in the next year.
Maybe the real takeaway should be how little we know about where we are in this strange economic episode.