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Trump was at 42%. he hasn t spent as much money and yet he goes from 42 to 48% over the course of 5 months. san fits flat lined. haley has some up at the end. do you call it momentum? that s the big debate. she s up to 20%. but this is what s interesting when you look at the poll. we have talked about how trump supporters tend to be more enthusiastic and locked in. 88% of trump supporters say extremely excited about their candidate. you want your people to be enthusiastic. desantis, 62% say very enthusiastic. this is a problem sign for h lee. we ll see what happens some are more moderate republicans. they are not usual caucus goers. if they are not that enth enthusiastic and it s horrible o out, do they show up? thomas joins us now. i wonder what are this election is really about, because trump is so far ahead it s very difficult to see either of the two coming close.
Again, the big point here is to try to get a win that is large enough to set the momentum and offset anything that she has going into new hampshire. the other complication here, they worry that those big poll numbers will keep people from turning out who might just say, oh, donald trump, he already has enough support anyway. so they are trying to stress no matter what you are seeing, get out there and caucus on monday. i want to bring in thomas gift the director of the center on u.s. politics at university college london. he joins us from harrisburg, pennsylvania. thanks for being here with us again. so as we heard there donald trump according to this gold standard poll on track for the largest margin of victory in a contested republican iowa caucus in modern history. what does that say about the state of the race? thanks so much for having me, kim. great to be with you, as always. i think trump has the nomination locked up, that s what it says about the race, irrespective even of how iowa turns out, but part of me thinks it s important
Said that trump, or any other president, has agreed to order assassinations of people, and cannot be prosecuted for that unless first and peach or convicted. if they can run out the clock and say the senate doesn t have jurisdiction to hold a trial, then they act with complete impunity. in fact, if they want, they can kill members of the house or senate, for the majority who want to impeach him. the president could order killers in the supreme court. i think that might weaken the supreme court up. wait a second, do we want the blood on our hands, if this obvious insurrectionist is set back to office? we are not going to do our job, we will kick that away and come up with an off ramp excuse. then we ll be responsible for him being back in office? and the end of our system of constitutional government. i think they ll have to think hard about that, even the ones most and the take. those like thomas, or
Electorate. i think it s still quite early, 11 months out from the election to make too many strong projections. really we are looking at a horse race between a biden and trump nomination. i really think that a third party candidate could make a difference, that it could be an x factor. that s not being talked about enough. one in five voters say that they would be open, at least open to voting for rfk jr. certainly he doesn t have a chance of winning, but if he could just tip 10,000 votes in one state, 10,000 votes in another state, i think it could really be a game changer. yeah, certainly no one is dismissing that possibility when things are so, you know such a razor-thin margin between the candidates as we ve seen them in the last election. we will have to leave it there. thomas gift with the yoofrd college of london. thanks for being with us. thanks, kim. u.s. congressional leaders have reportedly reached an agreement on a short-term funding bill that would keep the government running into march. the new continuing resolution
All right. there s the results so far of today s poll question. wow. 26,000 and change. is the republican nomination already over. 52/48. 52% agreeing with my guest in saying, yeah. the voting hasn t bekbun, but it s pretty much a done deal. here is some of the social media reaction coming in during the course of the program. the 43% self labeling independent means the electorate is more sick of politics as usual than it was in 2016 when trump was nominated and later rejection. thomas, let me say this you know who is elated to see 43, which is a record high for independents as gallop has been doing this, tieing with a previous high. i got to believe the people that no labels are thrilled to see this. joe lieberman there it is. 43% i m one of them. 43% self identify as independent as compared to 27% who say, no, i m an r or i m a d.