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The Case for Inflation :: The Market Oracle ::


overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections.
What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy 
could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed.
Inflation tends to occur when actual GDP exceeds potential GDP because the economy is “running hot.” An output gap is when it goes the other way, with the economy operating well below its potential. That’s what we see in recessions.
Of course, all this involves numerous assumptions. GDP itself has problems, too, but it’s still a useful framework for analysis. Government and central bank policy should aim to keep the economy running roughly in line with its potential: not too hot, not too cold. ....

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Overstimulation Risk


February 14, 2021 | Overstimulation Risk
John Mauldin
John Mauldin is a renowned financial expert, a
New York Times best-selling author, and a pioneering online commentator. Each week, over 1 million readers turn to Mauldin for his penetrating view on Wall Street, global markets, and economic history.
Among the many strange, unforeseen changes of the last year is a new respect for Keynesian economic theory. Practically everyone in power now agrees that deficit spending produces GDP growth. They differ only on its expected magnitude and duration. The few exceptions are mostly outside the halls of power.
This matters because deficit spending, already higher than ever, is set to grow even more when Congress passes President Biden’s pandemic relief package. I take it as given they ....

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