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Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say: Reuters poll

A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters. A persistent negative spread between 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields is a key input into many analysts' models as a reliable predictor of recession, having occurred in the lead-up to nearly all recessions since 1955. The yield curve has been inverted for more than 20 months now - currently by 46 basis points - but most of the recent discussion in markets has been about the probability of no recession or even the risk of a re-acceleration in economic growth. ....

Sarupya Ganguly , Anitta Sunil , Zhiwei Ren , Sujith Pai , Rahul Trivedi , Paul Simao , Ross Finley , Federal Reserve , Penn Mutual Asset , Steve Major ,

Inverted Yield Curve No Longer Reliable Recession Flag, Strategists Say: Reuters Poll

Inverted Yield Curve No Longer Reliable Recession Flag, Strategists Say: Reuters Poll
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New York , United States , New York Stock Exchange , Brendan Mcdermid , Sarupya Ganguly , Zhiwei Ren , Paul Simao , Sujith Pai , Rahul Trivedi , Anitta Sunil , Ross Finley , York Stock Exchange , Federal Reserve , New York City , Penn Mutual Asset , Steve Major ,

Inverted yield curve no longer reliable recession flag, strategists say

A key indicator of an oncoming recession implied by the U.S. bond market is no longer reliable, according to nearly two-thirds of strategists polled by Reuters.. ....

Rahul Trivedi , Sarupya Ganguly , Zhiwei Ren , Anitta Sunil , Ross Finley , Paul Simao , Sujith Pai , Federal Reserve , Penn Mutual Asset , Steve Major ,