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Inflation Is the Big Challenge for Markets and the Fed in the Week Ahead


The April employment report was extremely disappointing with just 266,000 jobs created, well below the 1 million expected. The Friday report cast doubt on the expectations of some investors that the Fed will move toward paring back its so-called quantitative easing bond purchases later this year.
The thinking is if the inflation data appears hot when the consumer price index is reported Wednesday, it could ignite the debate about whether the Fed will have to tighten policy sooner than it would like. For now, the market is viewing the April jobs data as a distorted one-off report.
It s all about the inflation numbers. It s all about the transitory nature and to what extent we ll see it, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group It s more relevant to the CPI month-over-month changes. If the month-over-month gains are starting to pick up steam, and we re seeing 0.3% to 0.4%, that s not transitory and that s a problem for the Fed. ....

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Inflation Is the Big Challenge for Markets and the Fed in the Week Ahead


The April employment report was extremely disappointing with just 266,000 jobs created, well below the 1 million expected. The Friday report cast doubt on the expectations of some investors that the Fed will move toward paring back its so-called quantitative easing bond purchases later this year.
The thinking is if the inflation data appears hot when the consumer price index is reported Wednesday, it could ignite the debate about whether the Fed will have to tighten policy sooner than it would like. For now, the market is viewing the April jobs data as a distorted one-off report.
It s all about the inflation numbers. It s all about the transitory nature and to what extent we ll see it, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group It s more relevant to the CPI month-over-month changes. If the month-over-month gains are starting to pick up steam, and we re seeing 0.3% to 0.4%, that s not transitory and that s a problem for the Fed. ....

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Rising Interest Rates May Continue to Test the Stock Market in the Week Ahead


Jerome Powell is the most important speaker, when he appears at a Wall Street Journal summit Thursday.
If he wants to stop this rise in rates, he does have to say something. But he risks sounding hawkish. The more dovish he sounds, the higher rates will go, said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at Bleakley Advisory Group. When the Fed is described as dovish, it means it is maintaining easy policy, such as keeping interest rates at low levels.
Some Fed watchers doubt the central bank will comment on the rise in yields any more than Powell did this past week when he said the move was the result of a strengthening economy. But bond pros say Powell could reinforce that Fed policy will remain easy for a long time to come. ....

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Politics will be front and center as a catalyst in the first week of the new year


Politics will be front and center as a catalyst in the first week of the new year
CNBC
12/31/2020
Patti Domm
The Georgia Senate runoff election is a big event for the market in the week ahead and well beyond,, as it will decide which party controls the U.S. Senate.
A win by incumbent Republicans could trigger a relief rally, while an upset by Democrats could cause a sell-off as it creates uncertainty about whether Democrats would raise taxes and make other policy moves that would impact stocks.
The December employment report caps a big week of data, and some economists expect less than 100,000 jobs were created, compared to 245,000 in November. ....

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