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ECB policymakers remain 'apart' on strategic review

ECB policymakers remain 'apart' on strategic review
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Wait and see mode for central banks

4/9/2021 12:45:13 PM GMT
US yields have taken a step back this week causing a weaker USD. Some profit-taking might also play a role for the USD following a few very strong months. In Europe, bunds moved sideways. Equities have continued to edge higher on a global scale and US markets hit new highs.
We got minutes from both Fed and ECB this week, none of which provided much news. Overall, the FOMC minutes confirmed our view that the Fed bought time at its March meeting, as the policymakers think it is too early to change rhetoric amid the pandemic. At the March meeting, ECB had a slightly optimistic tone on the economic outlook and came with some hawkish comments to the PEPP implementation. The market impact was insignificant in the short term, but we think it willtake a significant worsening of the risk appetite for ECB to step up purchases. As such it is in our view, right now more likely that ECB will have to end PEPP rather than extend it. ....

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Increased economic resilience against COVID-19 restrictions

Political symbolism in the UK vaccination campaign
In Western Europe, the changes in our GDP forecasts are relatively small, especially for the euro area. Comparisons between euro zone countries and the UK are extra noteworthy since we can now measure the impact of Brexit on the British economy. In this situation, the pace of vaccinations has gained a lot of symbolic value, especially for Boris Johnson and his Tory government. The UK has imposed severe restrictions throughout the pandemic, and its 10 per cent GDP decline in 2020 was far deeper than in the euro area as a whole.
The “UK variant” of the COVID-19 virus has put extra pressure on the health care system, and during the third wave, metrics of the degree of lockdowns indicate that the UK is one of the countries that has gone the furthest. The UK’s lead in the vaccination process is now creating opportunities for its economy to recover lost ground. In late February, Prime Minister Johnson presented a step-by-s ....

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Nordic Outlook: A world marked by setbacks and advances

Nordic Outlook: A world marked by setbacks and advances
Sweden: Fiscal stimulus will ease the burden on the Riksbank
COVID-19 vaccine roll-outs and powerful stimulus measures are laying the groundwork for a rapid recovery, once the pandemic releases its grip on the world economy. Despite the escalating spread of infection and expanded restrictions, late 2020 was not as weak as previously feared. The full-year 2020 decline in global GDP is expected to be only 3.7 per cent, compared to our November projection of 4.4 per cent. We have marginally downgraded our 2021 forecast to 5,0 per cent, while adjusting 2022 growth almost half a percentage point higher to 4.3 percent. Exceptional crisis relief programmes will leave behind a high public debt burden and questions about inflation, but our main scenario is that the world will avoid overheating tendencies and that central banks will continue to keep interest rates and bond yields low. Due to milder restrictions, the Swedish ....

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Banking group SEB cuts Latvia's GDP growth forecast for 2021 - World News

2021-01-26 17:05:29 GMT2021-01-27 01:05:29(Beijing Time) Xinhua English
RIGA, Jan. 26 (Xinhua) Sweden s largest corporate bank SEB has revised Latvia s GDP growth forecast for this year to 3.9 percent from 4.3 percent but expects the Baltic economy to show a sizable rebound in the second quarter of 2021, according to the latest Nordic Outlook published by SEB on Tuesday.
Latvia s economic growth forecast for 2022, however, has been upgraded to 4.6 percent from 3.5 percent as consumption and investment are likely to strengthen next year, according to the SEB report.
SEB analysts noted in the report that Latvia s economic recovery is currently on hold due to a recent steep resurgence of coronavirus infections and resulting restrictions, which have been choking consumption . ....

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