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"It's Not A Conspiracy"


Philosophers and analysts use a principle called
Occam’s Razor (sometimes Ockham’s Razor) to solve difficult problems. It says that when you are confronted with two possible solutions to a problem, one complicated and one simple,
it’s usually better to select the simple solution.
There’s always some attraction to the complicated solution because humans like intrigue and plot twists. But statistically, the simple solution is more likely to be correct and therefore the one that analysts should prefer unless contrary evidence presents. This approach is useful in dealing with conspiracy theories.
Yes, real conspiracies exist (such as the plot to assassinate JFK), and analysts must be alert to the possibility. But most so-called conspiracies have much simpler explanations that are more likely to be correct. ....

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The most powerful photos from President Joe Biden's time in the White House, so far


President Joe Biden and first lady Dr. Jill Biden.
Official White House Photo by Adam Schultz
The United States Marine Band played to welcome them to the White House on Inauguration Day.
January 20: President Joe Biden embraces first lady Dr. Jill Biden in the Grand Foyer of the White House.
The United States Marine Band played to welcome them to the White House on Inauguration Day.
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January 20: Vice President Kamala Harris, joined by her husband Doug Emhoff, is sworn in as Vice President of the United States.
Vice President Kamala Harris and Doug Emhoff.
Official White House Photo by Lawrence Jackson ....

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Same as the old boss? President Biden, revolving doors and foreign policy continuity


NationofChange
Same as the old boss? President Biden, revolving doors and foreign policy continuity
In the area of foreign policy the new boss in Washington doesn’t look much different from any of the old ones.
With a pandemic raging and promises including a $15 minimum wage and student debt relief seeming to acknowledge the growing power of the progressive wing of his party, the troubling aspects of Joe Biden’s picks to run his foreign policy were not seen as very newsworthy during the transition period prior to his inauguration.
While campaigning for his current office, the new president did make some important commitments on this front, including a promise to rejoin the crowning diplomatic achievement of the administration he served in as vice-president: the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, commonly referred to as the Iran nuclear deal. He also vowed to end the logistical support that makes the ongoing carnage in Yemen, which has resulted in ....

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