Marvin G. Weinbaum
Director, Afghanistan and Pakistan Studies
As prescribed by the Biden administration in early March, the major stakeholders in the Afghan conflict have been beckoned to an April meeting in Turkey. The planned U.N.-headed conference is intended to give a strong kickoff to a new round of talks between the Taliban and a broadly representative Afghan delegation, leading directly to negotiating an interim government for the country. But almost everything about the conference seems up in the air.
To begin with, even after six weeks of discussion, no firm date for the meeting has been agreed upon. A tentative April 16 starting date for the conference now seems unrealistic, if not impossible, and the agenda is still being debated. Nor have all those invited confirmed their intention to attend. The Taliban seem particularly hesitant to commit. Attempts in Afghanistan to present a unified front for the talks have been frustrated by competing peace programs from various political factions. For weeks, the Kabul government’s High Council on National Reconciliation has been deliberating on alternative interim government proposals and has yet to announce a recommendation. None of the conference invitees have signed on to the much promoted American design for a transitional government. Even the goal of the conference seems less clear. As originally conceived in Washington, the meeting in Turkey would provide the sendoff for negotiators, preferably at a venue free of the aura of deadlock that surrounds the negotiations in Doha. Of late, however, the U.S. appears resigned to a far less ambitious aim where post-Turkey talks would merely serve to complement an ongoing Doha process.