Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Markets Balance Of Power December 5, 2017

The u. S. Plans to relocate to relocate its embassy to jerusalem. Abbas has said to be warning trump of the dangers of the move. It would fulfill a Trump Campaign promise made by previous u. S. President s and set aside due to regional concerns. Both of whom claim the holy city as their capital. For more, we turn to marty shanker, bloombergs chief content are officer. This is a really dangerous part of the world. Is. T as you mentioned, previous president s have made this Campaign Commitments that step back from doing it because they thought it would interfere with the Peace Process. Now, donald trump appears to be on the filling that Campaign Promise but at great peril to the mideast Peace Process which he has held up as a main priority of his foreignpolicy. Shery threatening he will seek to mobilize World Leaders. How is that expected to go . Marty World Leaders have warned donald trump not just the regional powers, but our own allies in europe warning against the dangers of making such commitment at this time. It it serves no purpose that will not promote peace and more and will come look at those matters. It looks like the u. S. Will be on its own on this one. David i spent time there. You spent time there. Part of the reason the president has been hesitant is they want to make this a Larger Center larger sentiment. Once you give it up, you have given up your bargaining chip. Is there a bigger plan that Jared Kushner is pursuing . Marty we have reported that Jared Kushner has this grand plan. He outlined it a little bit over the weekend. Which would involve creation of the palestinian state with Financial Aid from the region and outside the region. Where this fits in in that plan, why would you do this before you got agreement on all parties of such a plan is problematic. David so many people have tried to set this up. It is not just money. Jared kushner may have gotten money from the saudis to back up the states are you have security concerns. Questions of whether palestinians get to return to israel. Is an extraordinarily complicated issue and it is not just something that i has that has been going on for decades. It has been going on for centuries. The lack of trust is also think that other president s have had a difficult time overcoming. This is not going to help matters in my view. Shery we are hearing on and off state rextary of tillerson will be out of office in. How is this fall into the broader context of u. S. Foreignpolicy . Have been reports of chili relationships between donald trump and Rex Tillerson. There was a report in the New York Times at there was a plan to unseat him as secretary of state for donald trump if you days later called it fake news. Wrecks is still with him. Secretary of states and the president s of don always have to agree on policy. They do have to be on the same page on strategy. Been tryings have to figure out where Rex Tillerson stands on this move. We have been a but have been unable to do so. David in the middle east, everything is connected to everything else. We are told President Trump told the king of jordan. How will this be taken place taking place in jordan, lebanon, throughout the region . Shery i think we just reported that abdullah was not too happy. Marty no one seems to be too happy. There obviously are people who are talking to this president who are explaining to him what the perils of making this move is. Donald trump listens to one voice, he has said in the past, i am the best person there is to decide on foreign policy. He has obvious they decided this is the best thing for the United States. David we will find out if he is right. We hope he is right. Marty we do. Shery Marty Schenker david , bloombergs chief content officer. Lets get a check on where markets stand. Julie hyman is here with the latest. Julie we have a reversal of yesterdays momentum here. Both with the dow which was going up and is now going down and the nasdaq. Overall, it feels like a pause day in the rotation that we had been seeing as it reverses to some extent. I want to switch to another topic. I have found someone who might. E happy that is oil bowls, at least potentially. There appears to be speculation that if that does cause an and i could have an effect on oil supplies. That appears to be what is causing this leg up in oil prices. We have not confirmed that but the timing coincides as oil pitches higher by a by. 5 and gets closer to 58 a barrel. Something else is chinas appetite for american oil. China but the most crude and more than two decades in october. Record u. S. Production. You see a chart of that here. That demand in china for u. S. Oil. That isne hand, something that could underpin prices but could also play into the dynamics of what opec is doing with its production curbs as it watches the u. S. Oil get shipped out to china. I want to look at the refiners in todays session which have been performing. Some of them contributing to gains in stocks, although all overall the energy group is little changed at this point. These are some of the other performers. A couple of underperformers today. The toy makers. They are trading lower. Thatcould be on the news toys r us is seeking permission to close its stores in the United Kingdom. Shares obviously taken the worst of it here. They are down 6 as hasbro falls more than 1. 5 . David thanks so much. Shery President Trump is promising tax cuts in time for christmas. How are executives planning their year ahead around the longawaited overhaul . Chairman and ceo Mark Weinberger will be with us next. This is bloomberg. David this is Bloomberg Markets balance of power. Im david westin. Shery im shery ahn. Lets get a check of bloombergs first word news. Of the liberal lions of the United States congress has is stepping down. 88yearold john conyers made the announcement during an interview on a does on a detroit radio station. He is faced calls to leave the house following allegations of sexual misconduct. I am retiring today. And i want everyone to know how ,uch i appreciate the support incredible, and diminish support i have received across the years from my supporters. Not only in my district, but across the country as well. Against the allegations him, conyers said whatever they are, they are not accurate or they are not true. Conyers endorsed his son to replace him. There is a report that President Trump has told the palestinian he plans to move the u. S. Embassy in israel to jerusalem. According to the palestinian news agency, abbas warned the president of the danger of taking that step. Said it president moving the empathy to jerusalem was a red line for muslims. The European Union is waiting for a sign from the British Government before brexit talks resume. Negotiations between Prime Minister theresa may and european commissioner president broke up yesterday. Mais political factors in Northern Ireland a jet objected to warding. You eat au officials expect her to return to brussels sometime this week. Global news, 24 hours a day, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in over 120 countries. Im mark crumpton. This is bloomberg. David question mark david thanks very much. The republican tax overhaul is headed to the committee. Though it is not there yet, passage of a bill and signature in line with the president appears more and more likely. American ceos applaud this development. Democrats and most economists say because the benefits will go to corporations and their shareholders. Mark weinberger is chairman and ceo of e y, and a member of the negative committee. Areelieves economists wrong, text changes will grow the economy in a substantial way and lead to more jobs. He comes to us from washington. Good to have you here. Mark thank you. David there is a bit of a disagreement. We have a survey we reported on just yesterday from economists that say yes, some growth but not that much. 2 10 of 1 . Something modest is what we are expecting. I is it you as a ceo in your fellow ceos have a robust view on what these tax overhauls will do . Mark first of all, thanks for the question. It is basically have a we have been waiting 30 years to come up with a system that is competitive for u. S. Systems. Is it reduces the Corporate Tax rate. To bring Companies Back their capital without a penalty tax. And to be competitive in foreign markets. That is what companies are excited about. There are added benefits like accelerated depreciation. The bottom line is it is a more competitive system. U. S. Corporations will not be forced to look overseas or move overseas or be acquired by foreign companies. As we have seen over the years, to be able to compete globally. The Business Roundtable has been looking at this bill for a long time. 76 of the people say they will hire more people, 82 percent they will invest more in capital. If changes go in effect. Still, as david just said, the Economic Research out there does not seem to do the math. The method does not add up. Seemed tosan collins attribute deregulation as part of the equation. Are you also looking into financial deregulation . All, theyt of deregulation has been helpful. It will continue to be helpful. That is something one of the reasons the economy is doing well. When you say the math does not add up, there are separate issues here. There is no doubt every democrat and a republican, president obama said we need to come move to a Competitive International system. Thisnot one who believes will completely pay for itself with tax cuts. Dollars a trillion deficit increase according to the joint committee. I think that is conservative. Some say economists some economists would say it would pay for the entire tax cut. It is undeniable it will add the wages and jobs and growth. The difference is a question of how much. Will it be the 2 the. 2 ,. 4 . 3 number we have now would be quite dramatic. Everyone can see there will be some growth. The question is how efficient this is . Take this into the psychology of the ceo. Others coments and your number when gary cohn when in front of a group of ceos. When you invest in plant equipment and wages and hardly anyone raise their hands because a lot of ceos said my job is to return capital to shareholders. Do dividends. Explain to us why a lot of this money would go into plant equipment and employees . They werehat room, not all ceos and looking to raise their hands on a particular question off the fly and be prepared to say how much they would invest. But, the ceos have said they will invest in capital and wages if this money were to come back. What is different now is people look back to 2004 and they say in the money came back in 2004, it was a holiday and it was share buybacks and dividends. This is different than 2004. It is not comparable. This is a permanent structural change in the way corporations are taxed at home and abroad. A couples the ability to bring that cash back with a lower 20 tax rate in 100 expensing. Inis incentive to invest capital that will increase productivity which will add to wage growth and jobs. I was not around in 2004. That was not around in 2004. On the margin with the changes we are making to the u. S. Tax code, it will be a better situation to invest here on the margin than anywhere abroad. Over the last 30 years, it has been more advantageous to invest abroad. That is why we heard about in versions, we heard we did a study over the last 20 years, if we had a Corporate Tax rate, over a thousand companies that were acquired by foreign businesses would not be acquired by foreign businesses. It is also a question of crafting capital to the United States to invest. They you are talking about 2004 repatriation tax holiday. You are saying the differences because of the permanency of these repatriation measures. How about the full expensing measure right now . That is going to be phased out in five years. Are right. The permanency of the provision as opposed to the one on the holiday. It is coupled with a 20 Corporate Tax rate as opposed to 35 in 2004. It is coupled with an incentive to give you a complete writeoff expensing. That is over the next five years. That is a long time. Over time. Sed down it would provide for an immediate benefit in 2018, right away to be able to expend along with that cash. That was not there in the 2005 repatriation bill. David you are a ceo in your own right. I will put you on the spot. Assuming this goes forward, the way it looks like it well, are you already sitting down with cfo, because i know you wide plans out a few years, and saying i will hire more people, i will invest in plantar equipment . Are you making specific plans to invest this capital in america . A differente situation than many of our clients because we are a partnership to we dont get the corporate rate reduction. We have 15,000 people in the United States we are planning to higher next year. The device doesnt people around the world. We are looking to see where opportunities will lead. To your point, all the ceos we work with are sitting down now and modeling what this will mean on the aftertax return. If there is no return, they will not invest just to invest. Where they have an opportunity whereest in equipment, they can hire people at a cheaper cost, they will do that. Companies are looking very carefully at their supply chain as these laws change. The rules no longer are advantageous for keeping a lot of your income in very low tax restrictions overseas. Now you have a 20 raise opposed to 35 . Theres something in the bill no one talks about. Things buting to be in the buildup prevent companies from moving their income overseas just to get a benefit. Companies will be looking at their supply chains to see where they can redo them and restructure them to be under the new rules. David thank you so much. That was truly helpful. A great discussion about the tax reforms. Mark weinberger, ceo coming to us from washington. Shery still ahead, the president scoring a rare judicial victory. What the decision could mean for the president s travel ban, as they prepare to hear arguments against it. This is bloomberg. David this is Bloomberg Markets balance of power. Shery im shery ahn. The Supreme Court ruled yesterday to allow President Trumps travel ban to take full it affect. The order bars traveled to the u. S. From eight countries, six of which are majority muslim. This decision hands me present a major legal victory and suggest may ultimately uphold this third iteration of the band. For more, we welcome senior fellow and constitutional study. He joins us now from washington. Thank you for talking to us. How does this allowed by the courts without setting of constitutional alarms . Remember, first of all this is not a ruling on the merits. The court did not indicate any which way whether ultimately travel ban 3. 0 would be upheld. Staying the lower courts ruling, allowing the ban to go into effect while it is being appealed. There will be arguments in two different lower courts on all of those challenges. I dont know what kind of alarm bell it might be, but ultimately at the end of the day, the Supreme Court has sent multiple messages that this is a normal kind of case that the lower courts look at systematically. David as you know, in deciding, there are two questions. Injury and likelihood of success on the merits. The court must take a look at this and handled some preliminary indication they were not sure they would succeed in the merits. Which does suggest how they might come out. Ilya it could. Indeed, inc. Or clay looking at the past history, as john roberts became chief, i think it is Something Like 22 out of 23 times when there is a stay of Lower Court Decision before the Supreme Court takes it up fully. It does end up reversing. Case ise this unusual. Anything could happen. Who knows, it could be mo oted or changed. The appellateat courts ultimately reason. The last series of Appellate Court rulings, the Supreme Court was not impressed with it. That is why it changed. Shery just a fact that the justices came out allowing this. Just before the lower courts in San Francisco and virginia. Is the sending a message in itself . Ilya it is sending a message that for the lower courts to cool it, somewhat. It is unusual for a lower court not to stay in junction of a Government Action pending appeal. Generally, as courts look at these things, they dont want to go back and forth in terms of what the government is doing. I think the biggest the signal like what the Supreme Court sent back in june, is to say lower courts, collate. This is the same type of runofthemill case w have had challenges to Government Action fo. This is not some extraordinary president tweeting related thing. David we have to talk about the case coming out of colorado which may end up being the biggest decision of this term. It was argued today, and Justice Kennedy came down on both sides. We know he does that from time to time. What do you make of the argument . This is a very difficult case. Basically a First

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