good. fairly optimistic at this point. a 13% gain expected for the first quarter alone, but we ended up having it a back end loaded year. >> back to the next hour. see you next week. >> have a great weekend. >> happy st. paddy's day. >> maria bartiromo there. >> yes, exactly. >> off she goes. what are you watching for now. what's the next moment that could move this market, whether it's an economic report, a fed move? well, i think it's the s&p. i think once we break that 1565, i think we're going to see this go even higher. i think the feds, as long as -- as i've been saying, as long as they keep infusing this market with $85 billion a month, it has to go higher. >> we'll see what happens here. gentleman, thank you both. >> safe weekend. >> you too, as well. what we're going to be watching right now is a lot of running around. you're going to see still, which is unusual for this time of day, a lot of crowds around the stations, because of these so-called rebalancing, as they buy and sell stocks to rebalance portfolios in the index and also the expiration of options and futures contracts. what you'll get is a huge upswell of volume here as we go to the close. the question is, do we get a new record? doesn't look like. the streak is over on the ives of march. we should have warned the market ahead of time. here's the second hour of the "closing bell." have yourself a good weekend. >> and it is 4:00 on wall street. do you know where your money is? hi, everybody. welcome back to the "closing bell." i'm maria bartiromo on the floor of the new york stock exchange. it was fun while it lasted. the dow snapping a ten-day winning streak today, also it's run of eight consecutive all-time highs will not be extended. of course, there's next week. take a look at how the day is finishing the day with major averages on the downside after this huge historic week. the dow jones industrial ar average, down about 27 points, 14,512. we had a rebalancing at the close as well as an expiration, more than 1 billion shares, 1.1 billion trade here. at the big board alone, s&p 500 flat on the session, close but no cigar. on the nasdaq composite, also under pressure, to the tune of about ten points. the historic streak has ended, but what about the bull run? joining me right now to talk about more about it is dave zera. jim dunigan, and michael james, weather securities, plus cnbc contributor, stephanie link. good to have everybody on. the program. thank you so much for joining us. let me kick it off with you. how do you want to invest, knowing where we've been this week and going into the rest of the year. >> well, when money supply's growing at over 6% a year, the s&p tends to average about 11%. when it's growing at 8% or more, it tends to average about 14%. and it's growing at 7.7%. so that would suggest there's more legs left in this market. it would suggest we would have pretty good double-digit returns. >> and i have to believe that this was a victory, even though we're ending down today. you're talking 25 points. >> but also, there's other areas of the market that are pretty undervalued and that are attractive. emerging markets, equities are traded like 12 bes, and historically, you get really nice returns. buy mortgages right now at 6% yields, not a lot of interest rate risk. so there are still attractive areas of the market. >> still want to look for that growth story. whether it's in the u.s., emerging markets, still a place to see some gains there. jim dunigan, jump in here. hold up are you investing today? >> well, i think the same case, maria, that the path of least resistance, at least, it seems, for the market to be up. i'm just as happy for this streak to be over. more of a distraction, but i think earnings continued to support the story and we have massive monetary accommodation, which will continue to fuel that move to risk assets for investors over time. so if we consolidate, it will likely be from higher levels. >> how long does that accommodation last? when would you expect the federal reserve to start winding qe back? >> well, they have been pretty specific to say 6.5% unemployment, so i think we're well into the latter part of this year, before we start to see some pullback. >> and stephanie, any catalyst on the horizon, you're expecting in terms of this market? >> yeah, actually, next week is going to be very interesting. because we get earnings from federal express. we also get earnings from nike and from oracle. these companies do a fair amount of business outside of the u.s. so we want to see what they have to say about that, right? and also, about the consumer and about businesses and business investment. so i think those are three very big data points next week to keep an eye out. and i would just point out, in just in terms of the markets today, i was very encouraged to see the financials lead. there were very high expectations for these stress tests, and many of these companies more than delivered, and this is very important. it's been many years since these companies have had competitive yields, and they now have competitive yields. so i think that this group continues to work. >> yeah, and the earnings story is important. i'm glad you mentioned that. michael james, what are you seeing in terms of trading right now? where is the flow? >> right now you're seeing -- >> when you look at what's been going on for the last couple of weeks, it's a continuation of the theme for the first day of the trading year. i think most people were underinvested at the end of december, coming into january 1st. and with the fiscal cliff fears, so the market was first up almost 3%. and basically for the last two months, it's been chasing performance. you're either not long enough, or you're short, and fighting shorts that haven't been working. and so, i wouldn't really expect too much of a pullback, at least until the end of the quarter, just because the performance has been so fantastic, and most people are underperforming. i don't think you want to have more cash and fewer longs given what the quarter is likely to be when it ends in two weeks, but are we overbought? there's no question. but i've been looking for a pullback for the last couple of days. i think most people in trading positions have been looking for a pullback. >> i don't know about there. there are some traders -- some traders i talked to, they say, look, this market continues to feel great. it depends on who you talk to. but kenny is on the floor of the exchange. he just wrapped up his trading and settled things out. what'd you see at the end of the day here, kenny? >> i saw a lot of the things that were originally looking like they were for sale actually flipped to the buy side right at the last minute. i think all the commentators are right. i think we're going to hit some real resistance here, and the test is going to be, if we break through that high on the s&p, the shorts are going to throw in this towel and turn to buyers and cover, which will then give added momentum to the market for sure, or are the real natural sellers going to come out as we hit some resistance and hold us. we're up 11% this quarter really year-to-date. almost 10.5% year-to-date. so i wouldn't be surprised if it continues to churn here. i don't expect it's going to fall off the edge at all, because there's a lot of people waiting, but i don't see it going markedly higher by the end of the quarter. >> so you said, late in the day, you saw imbalances on the sell side, and then it just turned ten minutes before the close. >> not even ten minutes. almost in the last couple of minutes, they went to the -- they paired off and went to the buy side small. >> that was interesting. dave, what about that? is this volatility at the end of the day or just rebalance and expiration and a lot of noise? >> it's just noise. everybody's expecting a correction, and there's no doubt that we're overdue for a correction or for a consolidation. but this may be one of those markets that kind of never lets anybody in. where it just kind of creeps up, because everybody's expecting a correction. >> and that's why people keep chasing it. >> exactly. >> in terms of the earnings story, we're two weeks away, we'll start getting earnings, first week, second week of april. is that going to keep up in terms of what this market is expecting? >> well, you know, what happens with earnings, i don't know if it matters so much, because the market, if you look at it right now, is still attractively priced. you know, with interest rates as low as they are, you should expect that valuations would be higher than they are. so we're trading at like 15 ps on the s&p. with interstates so low, they could be 17 or 18. there's still room for this market to move up quite a bit, even with earnings where they are. >> even though revenue has been unimpressive. >> right. >> you've got to throw that in there too. stephanie, what are the most important sectors we should be focused on, as we go into earnings? >> the sectors i've been looking at recently have been the sectors the that have kind of underperformed. we talked about energy, talked about technology. technology, the sector is up 4.6% year-to-date. trades below a market multiple. that's kind of interesting. and i think, certainly, the industrials. so i want to know, what is happening on the business investment side, capital spending. and i believe in the second half of the year, you are going to see a pickup, once you get through sequestration and debt ceiling and all those kinds of things. >> any thoughts on the banks, given what we saw last night? >> i was very impressed with the banks, in terms of the performance, and i still think those stocks are very cheap. a lot of stocks trading below tangible book value at this point. >> they are. >> they've really underperformed the market this year. and everything that's happened today is positive for them. >> after a great year last year. everybody, thanks so much. appreciate your time today. see you soon. nothing lasts forever, and that is certainly true with the dow's ten-day winning streak, which came to a halt today. kayla tausche recapping the week along with the winners and losers. over to you, kayla. >> the dow rally came to a halt today, ending that ten-day streak, and down the first friday of 2013. still, a solid week overall for stocks. the dow and s&p posting gains of less than 1%. the nasdaq was up slightly as well, but the headlines were really made when we hit those record market highs over and over, including the dow. dow transports, russell 2000, small cap index and the s&p midcaps, of course, the s&p 500, still just shy of its own record. but helping the dow toward its record, boeing. the company saying it's troubled 787 should be airborne within weeks. that stock up just about 6.5% this week. the dow's biggest laggard, home depot. that stock down big on the week, down about 3.25%. the best-performing large cap sector of the week, financials. we were just talking about it. that's on the back of the majority of the banks passing the fed's stress tests. wells fargo up the most there. to the downside, the west performer was telecom services. metro pcs, the big laggard there, losing more than 3%, as investors slammed its proposed tie-up with t-mobile. to be continued, maria. >> for sure. kayla, thanks so much. was today's small losses the start of something big? not if you ask sean darby from jeffries. he's here. get ready for a big time bull/bear coming your way. and apple is in the green after a bullish call by legendary investor bill miller. is that the start of a return to glory for apple stock? we'll check it out. and we'll find out which way the housing market could push this market. the top government official on housing, hud secretary, shaun donovan is here in a cnbc exclusive. that and a lot more coming up on "closing bell" on cnbc. at fidelity, we do it by merging two tools into one. combining your customized charts with leading-edge analysis tools from recognia so you can quickly spot key trends and possible entry and exit points. we like this idea so much that we've applied for a patent. i'm colin beck of fidelity investments. our integrated technical analysis is one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. now get 200 free trades when you open an account. ca welcome back. no all-time high for the s&p 500 today, but that hasn't changed my next guest's bullish call on stocks. in fact, he's so bullish, he has a year-end target on the s&p of 1673. that's more than a 100-point gain from here. s&p today closing at 1560. that makes sean darby of jeffries the most bullish analyst ton street and joins me with a nonbeliever calls for a 20% or more correction beginning within a month. we're talking about walt zimmerman. good to see you guys in our old-fashioned bull/bear debate. sean, why the raging bullishness? >> i think this market has been setting up for higher highs since november of last year. we've had an extraordinary period of share buybacks, which has meant that the market is being squeezed continually by the companies actually buying back shares of very, very, very, very small free floats. secondly, people's expectations on earnings were very poor going into the end of the year, and we've been seeing those numbers being revised up. thirdly, the breadth of the stock market is telling you that there's a lot more going on in terms of economic activity than people have expected. and last but not least, there's actually some real green shoots of a corporate capex spending recovery, which has not been imprinted in people's earnings numbers. i actually think the actual numb markets are going to continue to make higher highs. >> but when you say the quality and depth of this market, a lot of people say it's really not. because first of all, when you look at the fundamental case on earnings, revenue has underimpressed, or it's underwhelmed. it's not a lot of growth in revenue. number two, as far as the depth of the market, the precipitation is not necessarily across the board. the retail investor is still in bonds. >> well, i think that's the ultimate story. you've still got an enormous bubble that's built up in the fixed income markets that's going to slowly unwind. and i think the generally buying power is only just starting to appear in the equity markets now. i think even last year, the turnover in the equity markets was so poor despite the fact that the markets were making advances over the past couple of quarters. but i think the real test of this is the fact that companies are preferring to buy back their shares than actually issue new shares. and until that starts to reverse, i don't think we're going to have a top on these markets. >> walt, your best-case scenario is a 20% correction. what's the worst case, if that's the best case. >> well, in the near term, i still think we've got a shot at 1590. but there are three big things that worry me here. one is investor euphoria has reached almost unprecedented proportions, and i've learned to be really leery when everybody gets absolutely euphoric. the second thing is, overbought. the last time the market was this overbought, it was the prelude to a 20% correction back in 2011. the third thing i'm concerned about is the yawning chasm between the inflation-adjusted dow and the real -- and the nominal dow. the nominal dow is what we all see on screen. but when we adjust for inflation, it's a very different picture. we're way below the 2007 highs. we're way below the 2000 highs. it makes it, when you adjust for inflation, to get the real numbers, and by the way, this is what any economist or analyst does with any economic indicator. wages, income, retail sales, we never want the nominal number. we want the real inflation adjusting. when we do that for the dow, it doesn't look so great. it looks like, actually, a series of lower highs and lower lows since 2000. so we have a giant gap here, between what we accept as real, nominal, what we accept as real, and then the inflation adjusted. so that tells me that when we do get the next correction, it's probably going to be pretty brutal. >> what about that, sean. can you act on some of the things that walt is pointing out? i mean, one point walt makes is that investors are too optimistic. >> well, i think, certainly, in the very short period of time, over the last week or so, there's been an incredible crowding effect in terms of the markets, moving towards more bullish scenario. and i don't doubt that we'll have a few days of markets dropping from here, but, really, i think the trend has been set almost two or three quarters ago, as i said, when people's positions were very defensively going into the election and the whole fiscal cliff and the fact is, if you look at indicators like the political uncertainty index, we were almost to record highs at the end of last year. there's an enormous unwinding of defensiveness. just on the earnings and revenues picture, quite naturally, the outlook at the moment is still very pessimistic towards earnings. 24 months out, people are still downgrading, sales numbers are still flat. that's, as i said, still the story that's got to unfold. and last but not least, the key here is that real interest rates are negative. and that's exactly what the fed has been doing, because it's been undertaking financial repression, and under those circumstances, stocks do very well, and i think i wouldn't want to be shootrt here on the equity market. >> final word, walt? >> i was going to say one last point. massive amounts of share buybacks tend to happen near major peaks, not major lows. so i wouldn't necessarily put that in the bullish column here. >> all right, buybacks, something else to look at. thank you, gentleman. we'll keep watching and talk to you soon. appreciate your time tonight. samsung, meanwhile, launching its latest galaxy phone last fight, but rival apple's star was shining bright last night. hit tag two-week high. there was also a bullish call on apple from iconic investor bill miller on "squawk box" this morning. so is apple hot again? that's next. and how worried is president obama's housing secretary about flagging consumer confidence? shaun donovan will join us. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 seems like etfs are everywhere these days. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 but there is one source with a wealth of etf knowledge tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all in one place. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 introducing schwab etf onesource™. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 it's one source with the most commission-free etfs. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 one source with etfs from leading providers tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 and extensive coverage of major asset classes... tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 all brought to you by one firm tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 with comprehensive education, tools and personal guidance tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 to help you find etfs that may be right for you. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 schwab etf onesource-- tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 for the most tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 commission-free etfs, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you only need one source and one place. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 start trading commission-free with schwab etf onesource. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 call, click or visit today. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 investors should carefully consider tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 information contained in the prospectus, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 including investment objectives, risks, tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 charges, and expenses. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 you can request a prospectus by calling schwab tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 at 800-435-4000. tdd#: 1-800-345-2550 please read the prospectus carefully before investing. welcome back. let's get to scott cohn. we have more breaking news now on a big insider trading case. over to you, scott. >> maria, the largest insider trading penalty ever, steven cohen may have just come out from under a big clo