let's get right into the market action right now, looking at this market ahead of the big stream of earnings we're going to get tomorrow and into next week. ben pace from deutsche bank management is with me. greg ip, cnbc contributor from the economist. and our own rick santelli. good to see everybody. thanks for joining us. ben pace, what's your expectation for the earnings stream that we're going to get? we're going to get jpmorgan, wells fargo tomorrow, more banks next week, and then it's just off to the races. what's your sense? >> i think the capital market banks tomorrow, maria, should be pretty good. it was a good capital markets quarter. that shouldn't be a problem. maybe the regional banks with slower loan growth might be a bigger story, but earnings in general are expected to be flat to only up slightly. my thought is that the bar has been lowered enough that you exceed expectations, it might continue to allow the markets to run here. >> dean, we've got expectations of 0.6% growth for the s&p 500, for the first earning. is that going to be a factor, or is this all about the fed? >> you know, maria, i hate to say it, but we're almost in an earnings agnostic period now because of the fed and central bank easing. there are two major markets up over the last two months. that's japan and the u.s. both have expanding balance sheets. all other economies, with countries that have detracting balance sheets are down, actually. we believe, firmly, at brookstone capital in the fed and the central bank put that is propelling this market higher. >> all right. so it keeps going. greg ip, your sense in terms of earnings. do you think they're going to disappoint, in any way? we've got a market that's up 10%, year-to-date. of course, we know that the federal reserve is probably not going to stop. although, is that how you feel, or do you believe in this idea that they're going to start unwinding this summer? >> i think that's what the new news is in the last 48 hours, maria. if you thought a week ago that the fed was going to do about $1 trillion of bond buying this year in quantitative easing, the minutes that were released yesterday tell us that there is probably a majority of the fed that wants to stop by the end of the year. maybe they only do 700 or $800 billion and zero next year. so if you thought the fed was the only thing driving this market higher, then that story took a bit of a knock yesterday. but what i think is fascinating is the market continues to climb higher. so the market is clearly thinking that there's positive fundamentals out there, that outweigh the fact that the fed will be a little less friendly. so as far as earnings seasons go, i don't know what's going to happen, but i really, really hope that it will be a very positive surprise season, and better than usual, because as ben was saying, we're looking at only flat earnings year on year, and i think we need something better than that to support the type of market valuations we've got here. >> so do you think the fed starts unwinding this summer, then, greg? >> i think that they -- well, if you look at the minutes, you have a few people who want to start unwinding it midyear. you have more people who want to start unwinding by later in the year. it looks like you have a majority who want to stop buying by the end of the year. let's be clear. that doesn't mean they start to raise interest rates, but it does mean the pure creation of new money comes to a halt. >> rick santelli, jump in here. it's interesting that we really did not see a market reaction to what we heard yesterday, what greg is talking about, and this new debate, on wether or not to start the unwind this summer. sam zell, yesterday, you heard what he said yesterday, comparing where we are right now in the stock market to 2006 housing market. no reaction. >> i think, no reaction in the minutes speaks for itself. sam zell, in my opinion, is spot-on. it doesn't mean he's not invested. he's just pretty much wide-eyed, and in terms of greg ip's comment, of course it's not only the fed. but that's a lot of it. and in terms of when it will end, 24 hours ago, jim bianco and steve liesman said something i looked up. and it was that charles evan said in february that i think that we can slow down some of these programs, when i six months in a row of 200,000 nonforeign jobs growth p. i researched it. 16 years ago is the last time that happened. are they going to keep these programs up for 16 years! >> rick, let me answer that. no, they won't. and i saw that commentary by steven and jim yesterday, and remember, charlie evans is by far the most dovish member of the fed. you cannot assume -- >> it's his idea to target unemployment, though, is it not! >> correct. but listen carefully to what everybody else on the fed is saying. including janet yellin. she's talking about winding down by the end of the year. >> well, once again, i keep betting boatloads of sliders. i'll bet you a sack that it doesn't end in 2013. >> sliders. ben, what do you think about that? when would the market start reacting to the anticipated beginning of the end, to stimulus? >> you know what's interesting about that, maria, is that you haven't seen the great rotation out of bonds yet driving this market. it's been mainly driven by cash. bonds have still been okay, because of the fed. so the incremental fed tightening, even if it's a slowdown in the purchase rate of government securities, may mean bond buyers or bond owners start moving out of bonds for an allocation perspective and drive equity markets even higher. that could possibly happen. >> dean, how do you see it? >> economic growth is a double-edged sword for the fed. this is the perfect storm where we have mixed economic results, decent news, but not overwhelmingly good. because anything really, really good might force the fed to stop this ultra-accommodative policy. so i agree with rick. we're not going to see a stop to the fed's actions. >> and let me just make one looking ahead point here. tomorrow morning, we get retail sales for march. this is a very important report. we've seen a lot of supply side indicators like the manufacturing and the employment numbers disappoint for the month of march. you might be able to blame that on an early easter. harder to make that case if we get lousy retail sales. if we get strong retail sales that tells you that the spring swoon is probably not the base case for this economy. z >> good point. thank you guys very much. new day, new record for the dow and the s&p 500. bob pisani recapping all the market action. over to you, robert. >> not as powerful a rally as yesterday, but we're sort of going parabolic since the s&p broke through to new highs. take a look at the major highlights of what happened today. we made the new highs. jobless claims lower than expected this morning. that was good for a few points oen the s&p futures. we saw some market outperformers early on. reits and drug stocks did well. tech stocks lagged after a disappoints q1 pc sales. take a look at what happened here in terms of the major sectors. when you've got a broad advance, what does that mean? it means you can buy health care stocks, they go up. material stocks go up as well. two to one, advancing to declining stocks today. other winners? housing stocks did very well. taylor morrison went public yesterday. $22. look at this, up another 24% today. that's another real winner. realogy holdings went public back in october or so. a secondary offering, didn't stop. they're up 4% as well. there were some losers today. the big losers were pcs and semiconductor stocks, sell to the group, ids says, pc shipm t shipments were below expectations. barclays downgraded the whole group. microsoft also had a couple downgrades as well. finally, greg was mentioning retail sales out tomorrow. we did get march same-store sales. not as many companies reporting as they used to be, but the numbers were not that bad. l brands, the former limited, ross, costco, all better than expected. >> big bank earnings kicking off tomorrow and our market experts are here to dig into what they could mean for all of the stocks in your portfolio. we will preview the big bank numbers that will likely set the tone tomorrow. then it's a scene right out of the movies. insider tips traded on the golf course. black envelopes filled with cash, handed off in parking lots. we'll talk exclusively to the u.s. attorney who is making the case in the developing kpmg scandal. then, it's one of the very best-performing stocks so far this year. the ceo of celgene will be with us, talking about how knocking down some regulatory hurdles could not only save lives, but pump trillions of dollars into the economy. all those stories coming up on the "closing bell," next. a confident retirement. those dreams have taken a beating lately. but no way we're going to let them die. ♪ ameriprise advisors can help keep your dreams alive like they helped millions of others. by listening. planning. working one on one. that's what ameriprise financial does. and that's what they can do with you. that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. ♪ that's how ameriprise puts more within reach. welcnew york state, where cutting taxes for families and businesses is our business. we've reduced taxes and lowered costs to save businesses more than two billion dollars to grow jobs, cut middle class income taxes to the lowest rate in sixty years, and we're creating tax free zones for business startups. the new new york is working creating tens of thousands of new businesses, and we're just getting started. to grow or start your business visit thenewny.com welcome back. under pressure. two of the nation's biggest banks kicking off earnings for the sector tomorrow. kayla tausc kayla tausche looking at this. >> wells fargo and jpmorgan will open tomorrow. they predict loan growth will be down, margins will be pressured, and activity will start to slow. that will hurt wells, the largest mortgage provider. consensus estimates expect wells to post 88 cents. that would be on $21.6 billion in revenues. and depending on the strength of earnings, wells may need to follow suit and cut costs, like other banks have. cost cutting in focus for jpmorgan in q1, the bank in february announcing $1 billion in expense cuts this year. investors are going to look for how exactly that materializes. analysts, though, looking for $1.39 in eps on about $26 billion in revenue. the wild card, capital markets. a rocky q1 could be negative across the board or could see jpmorgan gain market share. morgan stanley's betsey graceick thinks it's the latter. we'll break it all down when the numbers hit the tape tomorrow. a programming note. i'll be sitting down with marianne lake, jpmorgan's chief financial officer in her first-ever television interview. that's tomorrow at 11:00. for now, maria, we'll send it back over to you. >> fantastic. look forward to it, kayla. thanks so much. what should we expect from the banks? the group has been a leader in this market's bull run. will earnings fuel more of the same or reverse things? with me now, david saowerby, erc ojah is u.s. banks equity analyst for s&p capital iq. gentleman, good to see you. thank you so much for joining us. all right, eric, what's your expectation of these numbers that we'll get beginning tomorrow. is the good news already priced in? >> yeah, we think the good news is priced in, already, for wells fargo. we have a hold recommendation, because we think that low interest rates are going to start hurting them. low interest rates helped them last year with mortgage refinancings. but this year, we think that the continuation of low interest rate environment will really start to hurt their investment securities. with jpmorgan, we have a buy recommendation, because we think capital markets will be strong. >> all right. capital markets, of course. we know the quarter we had, capital markets will be strong. it's probably one of the areas of growth right now in banking. david, how does a portfolio manager look with the financials right now. what are the metrics you're studying? >> specifically, that expectations heading into this earnings season is about a c-plus, maybe a b-minus for the banks. in financials, i would rather be overweight the asset managers, names like franklin templeton or leg mason. in the banks, i would rather own the money center banks. i would agree that jpmorgan represents value here at nine times earnings, and a 3% dividend yield. i would add citigroup to that list. and quickly, on the regionals, i think you have to be patient. you've got to play quality. and those would potentially be. would disagree. i think wells is one of the better quality larger regionals that deserves a place in the portfolio. but again in the beginning. i would rather be overweight the asset managers and money center banks. >> i understand what you're saying. i agree, because you have such a red-hot quarter in terms of the markets. but eric, i notice you're not mentioning the regulatory environment. this is something i'm going to be talking about in my observation at the end of the show. how big of an issue is this? >> yeah, it's a very big did l year, with the london whale trades. and they are squarely under the microscope right now. so, it will be interesting to hear what they say tomorrow, as far as what their reserves are for legal issues and what their outlook is for regulatory climate going forward. >> okay. so, is that going to impact legislation, other legislation, is that going to impact the earnings prospects for these companies? >> well, the volcker rule is still under construction, and it will likely impact the capital markets activities for jpmorgan chase and citigroup and bank of america. and what happened last year with jpmorgan chase will certainly make the volcker rule a little bit harsher. >> i see. david, what about you. do you worry about the regulatory environment? >> always. it's well meaning, but it goes too far. it always does. it has for, whether it's the last three years, maria, or the last 30 years. regulatory efforts go too far. they restrict the banks. they do more harm than they do good. i think it's a hindrance and it reduces their return on tangible equity, that, i think, is still an issue, along with margin pressures. the one bright spot for the banks is that c&i loan growth has been materially picking up. we saw that with the commerce bank numbers today. and that's probably the most saving grace for the regionals, for the more patient investor, is that loan growth is beginning to accelerate, as the economy has been improving, the fed has just put so much money into the system. >> so when do you think the fed begins the wind-down? >> i think it's probably sooner than later. they keep talking about 2014, 2015, but i'm a prime believer in the efficacy of money, and i go back to the fall of 2008. i've never seen a fed this aggressive. world banks, in addition to that. and ultimately, we're going to have to worry about inflation, and the fed will have to be tightening and the bond market will tighten sooner. we saw that in the first quarter of this year. and that will probably come sooner, some time in 2014, than later in the year. >> okay. eric, what's your take, in terms of the stocks right now, in the group, what looks best? now, david just said, he really likes the asset gathers, given the fact that we are seeing a red-hot stock market. what about you? what are your favorite names? >> we also like, we agree with him. we like citigroup. we're cautious on bank of america, because we think the legacy costs are still very, very uncertain. they still face a lot of private mortgage repurchase requests or demands, should i say. we like large regionals like pnc financial services group and bb&t. we think they're doing a great job of growing loans and maintaining costs. >> all right. we'll leave it there. we'll be watching the earnings period. come back to you. hope you'll join us once again. thanks so much. up next, concert tickets, a $12,000 rolex watch, envelopes stuffed with cash. what does that get you? in the case of the kpmg insider trading sentence, probably a lengthy jail sentence. the man who's prosecuting the case will join me next exclusively on the "closing bell." and cancerous drug maker celgene stock blowing through the roof this year. celgene ceo talking to me about his plans to keep that run alive. back in a moment. ♪ [ laughter ] ♪ [ female announcer ] each one of us is our own boss. ♪ and no matter where you are in life, ask your financial professional how lincoln financial can help you take charge of your future. ♪ i know what you're thinking... transit fares! as in the 37 billion transit fares we help collect each year. no? oh, right. you're thinking of the 1.6 million daily customer care interactions xerox handles. or the 900 million health insurance claims we process. so, it's no surprise to you that companies depend on today's xerox for services that simplify how work gets done. which is...pretty much what we've always stood for. with xerox, you're ready for real business. welcome back. as washington continues to battle over the budget, by reducing cancer deaths in this country by just 1%, you could save the country up to $500 billion, not to mention the lives saved. every dollar investment in medical innovation leads to $3 of future health benefits. and it's just adding up from there. these are a few reasons why the future pharmaceutical say what the president's 2013 budget which aims to cut key programs is bad for patients, bad for innovation, and bad for the economy. joining me right now in a cnbc exclusive to talk more about it, from the group's conference in san diego is celgene chairman and ceo, bob hughen. he'll take over the foreman board chairman tomorrow. good to have you on the program. >> great to be with you, maria. >> well, your company has been on fire. i want to get a status check on where we are in the fight against cancer. i want to get a status check on what's in the pipeline. but first, let's talk about understanding the economic value of innovation, versus the cost. how much can extending lives actually help the economy? >> well, if you look at the history, the history is a great instruction for us. our society has benefited so dramatically from the advances of the biopharmaceutical industry has produced. the economy has benefited, the quality of people's lives have been benefited, and certainly, the length of people ee's lives. so more than half of the economic growth we've seen is really attributed to the value of the life sciences industry and the better health care america. >> yeah, i mean, i just love this subject. what you're seeing, the marriage of technology and health care is just extraordinary, what we're being able to do today. where would you say is the most innovation in health care today? what's the -- what's got you mostly excited? >> well, i think it's very clear that the innovation and the revolution in molecular biology and information technology together have really allowed us to accelerate research in areas of cancer, many, many different kinds of cancer, but also, neuroscience. the areas, the opportunity for us at alzheimer's and other kind of neurogenerative diseases will make sufficient a difference. with an aging population, it's important that we do this, too. in those two areas and also metabolic diseases, we're going to see transformational new medicines over the next five to ten years. >> i love it. and what you just mentioned in terms of the brain, the brain research is so important. what about the president's budget? why does the pharmaceutical research and manufacturer's america say it's so bad for patients and innovation? what's the problem? >> well, i think we just have to make sure we under