anything short of that, people will smell blood in the water. >> even if he wins by double digits. >> yeah. i don't think that's going to be enough honestly because i think that if you see some kind of surprise, if you see that there's a surprise, for example, in second place, i think that that could give someone a tail wind. >> lulu, as i said in the package, the record for the biggest win ever in a contested republican caucus in iowa was 12 points. so, is reihan right, does he have to get over 50% which would mean winning by 20 or 30 points? >> i think he does. he's not coming in only as someone who wants to be the nominee, he is coming in as an incumbent. this is someone who was the president of the united states, and so therefore there's a lot of expectations on how well he's going to do. that said, the fact of the matter is that even if it isn't over 50% comfortably, as you said, reihan, i think he still is the man to beat. i think we're just fudging words