that the arabs began. again, what do these all have in common? they have in common assumptions, mind-set or grouping. if you're looking for something, everything you see tends to confirm it or reinforce it. if you're not looking for something, you tend to miss it. what you had here was a mind-set that afghanistan, yes, the situation was deteriorating, but it wasn't on the cliff, it wasn't on the brink. i thinks are not going to happen quickly. my guess is people tended to discount intelligence or analysis that wasn't somehow consistent with this tape. it may have also been a problem to some extent. the sources were obviously weak on the taliban. we were oubs havely talking more to ourselves or the afghan government. i bet a lot at the end of the day, this is more about what people were thinking when they red this little snippet of intelligence. >> afghanistan will certainly be on the agenda for the president when he's overseas. this is his second foreign trip.