Transcripts For MSNBCW The Cycle 20130930 : vimarsana.com

0 show. i spoke to some members going in today, charlie dent from pennsylvania says a clean, republican, a clean government funding bill would pass tonight if it went on the floor as did peter king of new york. there s an idea floated around here to keep in mind this is all fluid, that mitch mcconnell is perhaps putting forward a one-week government funding bill extension to come out of the senate. there s hesitancy about from senate republicans we hear on that by putting the house colleagues on the record for that type of vote. dave camp, chairman of the house ways and means committee told me that s something that they could possibly take a look at. from where we stand right now, tour e, you ll have a repeat of saturday night from the house republican conference. they are going to put forward this bill they know will be shut down by harry reid. then it goes back to the house and then john boehner has a decision to make. does he shut down the government or put a bill that could get democratic support, which is the clean one and move forward, or is there some miracle hue deanny, something out of the mitch mcconnell hat, we ve seen this in the fiscal cliff negotiations in 2010 that could avert the government shutdown at least for a week and we negotiate this further? that s what s happening here. nobody knows what exactly the path is going to be. i will tell you, tour e, the fact they ll send the bill over to the senate again the way the place works with parliamentary procedure, it s difficult to see now how we can avert a government shutdown with the amount of time it s going to take to debate. things could change. someone the angels could sing and someone might be awakened and decide they don t want to go down this road anymore. things are not looking good for the government to operate at 100% tomorrow morning. i love the excitement in you, luke, peter, thank you very much. it s going to be a long night for both of you. msnbc, possibly on until 2:00 a.m., get the popcorn ready. lawrence o donnell live at 1:00 a.m. tonight. our special shutdown preview continues with the grio s perry bacon. happy birthday, brother. thank you. looks like washington loves you because their gift to you is a shutdown. washington does not love me it seems like. i m going to be 2:00 a.m. for the coverage. yeah, washington does not love me on my birthday. there you are. perry, we have climate deniers, we have birth certificate deniers, birthers and now we have shutdown deniers, folks in d.c. on republican side of the aisle saying this is not going to be a big deal. it s fine, we can shut down for a couple of days or weeks, won t blame us, won t harm the country that much, it will be fine. perhaps this is because only a third of the senate was in washington in 95 and 96 and only a fifth of the house was. just because they don t actually remember or because they choose to not remember or because they were somewhat delusional. let s go with the they don t remember and they don t know. you know ted cruz was not in congress obviously for the last shutdown nor the house republican caucus. that s the key difference here. john boehner is aware the last government shutdown was not helpful to republicans because he was in the house leadership at that point. but he s pretty much alone. eric cantor and rand paul, ted cruz, you see a lot of members. also, you remember, most house republicans and most senators are in areas that are very heavily republican. the blow back will happen to the party overall but not to these individual members of congress. perry, there s an argument being tossed around by comment ators that a government shutdown may actually be a good thing for the debt ceiling longer term and may knock some sense into conservatives, force them to realize they are out of moves at this point, allowing boehner to raise the debt ceiling a few weeks later with little drama. and molly ball wrote, i asked a staffer who works for a house republican whether a government shutdown would be enough to change these members minds. he replied, no we like to suffer we like to beat ourselves and go back to the base and they give us another task to beat ourselves on and we forget how to beat ourselves the last time. perry, i m ooshlly an optimist, it s hard to believe even a government shutdown will change the do dynamic on the hill? i agree with you. i do think down the line there are 85 republicans voted for the fiscal cliff agreement. 87 of them voted to reauthorize the violence against women act. take those two votes. there s a core group of republicans, i call them the governing caucus. if you put the cr to the floor, you would be 250 to 300 votes to pass this bill. there is majority support in the house. i do think at some point john boehner will consider putting the bill on the floor, letting it pass. the important thing you have to remember, i saw dick durbin and harry reid piling on john boehner. i understand that. but john boehner is the elected leader of the house republicans. he can t each day of the week decide to violate their wishes. he has to try to get them to move toward a governing method. they can t continue to say the debt ceiling will never be raised unless huge bills like obama care are repealed. he has to get them there and that s the hope of the process. right, he s moved pay lot already in response, obviously to what his base is doing. take a listen to him here in march. our goal here is to cut spending. it s not to shut down the government. i believe that trying to put obama care on this vehicle, risks shutting down the government. that s not what our goal is. there you have it. everyone saying should there be more phone calls, should the president call boehner more? maybe john boehner for march should call john boehner this week an remind him this is a terrible idea, that he literally recently said was a terrible idea. if we know that is what he believes, if we don t think he was lying then, what will it take to get him to bring it to the floor? a lot of analysts believe if you do get a shutdown the way out will be to use your words, perry, will be some bipartisan vote with the governing caucus a few days after the disaster. let s go back ari. in november, john boehner said, i quote, obama care is the law of the land. and we re going to stop trying to have bills to fight it. he s had to move so far to the right, to the right, to the right. now you re at a place where i know the white house view this as they stand strong. if you notice the white house keeps saying they are not negotiating. usually in politics you don t say i m not going to negotiate. it makes you seem unreasonable. but their view is that you cannot keep rewarding bad behavior. they view the republicans are exhibiting bad behavior. i think we may need a longer shutdown. all of the polls show that the majority of the public will blame the republicans. the shutdown hasn t happened yet. we ll soon have real data showing a, the exchanges have started and they can t stop obama care. they will accept the obvious that the president is not going to sign the defunding of a law called obama care. i think that is one reality that s going to be clear to house republicans. ted cruz can convince a lot of republicans that this bill defunding will happen. you ll have one real fact, the exchanges are starting and the president is not going to defund his own bill. i hope you re right about that. perry, as you re pointing out, this isn t the first time we ve gone up to the edge with one of these crises, up until today the markets have shrugged their shoultders assuming we ll also avert this one and staring down the barrel of another debt ceiling crisis. are we going to see the business community putting more pressure on republicans, the folks writing them campaign checks? they haven t fully engaged yet. they haven t yet. i know the white house i talked with one of the advisers there, their big push is they need the business community to stop being falsely equivalent. they need them to stop saying, washington is broken and start saying the republicans are not doing the right thing. i don t think we re seeing a lot of signs of that yet. the business is usually more focused on the debt ceiling than the shutdown. if we have a shutdown in the next few days, what are the big analysts and independent newspapers say, i don t think republicans i don t care what john mccain thinks, i think that s right. they are not looking for other senators for guidance, some mainstream republicans for guidance. they may look towards the donor community because they usually have a big role in the republican party s actions if big banks on wall street say we re not going to give the party money anymore if it keeps doing these things, that could change. but that s not going to happen tomorrow. that s going to be a while. a lot of business leaders pride themselves on being bipartisan and not partisan. washington is broken but it s because the tea party broke it. thanks perry and ari. we have an asymmetrical problem, up next, what the shutdown could mean for you? remember on the friday, about the phone call with iran s president. it s been overshadowed but israel netanyahu and the secretary of state together again, that story coming later as we roll on. it s the last day of september.