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An over-confident and timid RBA caught out with rising inflation

Roger J. Kerr says the RBA needs to rethink its approach to taming inflation, US economic grows slows, and the Japanese have been restrained so far on intervention on behalf of the yen

Japan , Australia , Aussie , Australian , Japanese , Rogerj-kerr , Jim-chalmers , Barrington-treasury-services , Reserve-bank , Australian-federal-government , Price-index , Treasury-bond

Are FX market overly influenced by dodgy economic data?

Roger J. Kerr takes an experienced look behind the headlines of recent economic data to distill what the essential trends are telling him

New-zealand , China , Australia , Australian , Aussie , Rogerj-kerr , Barrington-treasury-services , March-quarter , Chair-powell , Executive-chairman ,

Will Orr push-back against market pricing of earlier cuts?

Roger J Kerr notes another blockbuster US jobs rise. And looks at what is driving the rise of the USD. He also wonders if the RBNZ will push-back against market interest rate pricing

New-zealand , Russia , Japan , Russian , Rogerj-kerr , Adrian-orr , Federal-reserve , Luxon-coalition-government , Barrington-treasury-services , Non-farm-payrolls , Average-hourly-earnings , Household-survey

US jobs data – what measure do you believe?

Roger J Kerr says US bond market worries about inflation should start to abate as they become more comfortable that the decline in inflation is not stalling and the Fed will be cutting interest rates in June. He also looks at US job data

United-states , New-zealand , San-francisco , California , Americans , Rogerj-kerr , Jerome-powell , Federal-reserve , Barrington-treasury-services , Currency-index , Dow-jones-index , Treasury-bond

Does a weak New Zealand economy lead to a weak NZ dollar?

Roger J Kerr says the root cause of the current economic downturn has to be sheeted home to just bad management – particularly Government fiscal policy management and RBNZ monetary policy management in response to the Covid pandemic

Switzerland , South-island , New-zealand-general- , New-zealand , Japan , Australia , Ukraine , Swiss , Rogerj-kerr , Adrian-orr , Jerome-powell , People-bank

USD buckles on Fed confirmation of interest rate cuts this year

Roger J Kerr says US rate cuts are going to happen and that confirms continuing USD depreciation as the Feds cuts well ahead of all other central banks

Japan , Australia , Australian , Japanese , Aussie , Paul-conway , Jerome-powell , Rogerj-kerr , Federal-reserve , Barrington-treasury-services , Us-bureau-of-labour-statistics , Farm-payrolls

The Aussie dollar's 20 years of plunges and rebounds

Roger J Kerr says the Australia-US exchange rate is likely to surge higher faster and further than the NZ dollar-US dollar rate over coming months

Melbourne , Victoria , Australia , Eden-park , China , New-zealand , Sydney , New-south-wales , Norway , Aussies , New-zealanders , Australian

The quirks and foibles of US economic data and what you can trust

Roger J Kerr says the Kiwi dollar does appear to have more opportunity for upside over coming weeks and break above the temporary shackle at 0.6150

New-zealand , Adrian-orr , Rogerj-kerr , Us-bureau-of-statistics , Federal-reserve , Barrington-treasury-services , Reserve-bank , Monetary-policy-statement , January-non-farm-payrolls , Personal-consumption-expenditure , Executive-chairman ,

US Fed and RBNZ part company on rate settings

Roger J Kerr says the RBNZ, it appears, are now belatedly recognising the difficulty in reducing the sticky/wage-push domestic inflation that has been running close to 4.00% for many years

Australia , Russia , New-zealand , Russian , Australian , Rogerj-kerr , Barrington-treasury-services , Reserve-bank , Governor-orr , Executive-chairman ,

Contradictory and confusing US jobs data, but US inflation still heading to 2.00%

Roger J Kerr says the view and outlook that the US dollar will weaken against all currencies this year is now under some scrutiny and pressure

China , United-states , New-zealand , Australia , Iran , Aussie , Americans , Rogerj-kerr , Us-bureau-of-labour-statistics , Barrington-treasury-services , Household-survey-labour-force-status , Farm-payroll