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Scientists combine climate models for more accurate projections

Scientists combine climate models for more accurate projections
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United States , Elias Massoud , Jason Smith , National Climate Assessment , Earth System Grid Federation , Oak Ridge National Laboratory , Nature Communications Earth Environment , Department Of Energy Oak Ridge National Laboratory , Nature Communications Earth , Bayesian Model Averaging , Fifth National Climate Assessment ,

"Decisions, decisions, decisions in an uncertain environment" by Noel Cressie

Decision-makers abhor uncertainty, and it is certainly true that the less there is of it the better. However, recognizing that uncertainty is part of the equation, particularly for deciding on environmental policy, is a prerequisite for making wise decisions. Even making no decision is a decision that has consequences, and using the presence of uncertainty as the reason for failing to act is a poor excuse. Statistical science is the science of uncertainty, and it should play a critical role in the decision-making process. This opinion piece focuses on the summit of the knowledge pyramid that starts from data and rises in steps from data to information, from information to knowledge, and finally from knowledge to decisions. Enormous advances have been made in the last 100 years ascending the pyramid, with deviations that have followed different routes. There has generally been a healthy supply of uncertainty quantification along the way but, in a rush to the top, where the decisions are ....

Bayesian Model Averaging , Xpected Posterior Loss , Loss Function , Osterior Distribution ,

Understanding Factors that Drive Environmental Concern Among General Population

A new study analyzes the factors that drive environmental concern among Europeans in an effort to understand how we can bolster popular support for combatting climate change. ....

Laura Thomsonfeb , Jonas Peisker , Just Societies Program , Global Environmental Change , Bayesian Model Averaging ,