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Desire for change, but joe biden retains that sort of establishment support. >> i will say this. i remember john edwards thinking south carolina was going to be good to him, then a guy named barack obama showed up. great panel. much appreciated. >> up next, we're speaking frankly about a new open job. enb (clapping) every day, visionaries are creating the future. ( ♪ ) so, every day, we put our latest technology and vast expertise to work.

Pollsters only get surprised by the strength of insurgencies. it's never a surprise that the establishment candidate, no matter what year we're talking about, turns out to be stronger than we thought. that's never the thing they miss. >> well, prognostication is often based on poll numbers and stuff, but also you look for endorsements, you look for money, you look for the professionalism of the campaign, you look for ads. if you're prognosticating in an old school fashion, you add up all this stuff that tends to be a sort of oblique measurement of establishment support. and so when establishme...

Bus. >> let's remember trump also went on the alex jones show when he was running for president. they have decided that they're going to go where the audience is, and everyone just look the other way and pretend like we don't really know the audience here might be conspiracy theorists and might be racists and full-on crazy people because it's an audience and we can get those votes. it is the lowest common denominator in american politics. trump did a good job of it. >> there used to be a day where people would say, if that's your view, i don't want your vote. i certainly don't want you on my b...

>> it's the reality of the republican party. you can see people who are no longer in politics. as you noted, she had major establishment support, paul ryan obviously the speaker of the house while governor scott walker didn't endorse, his family were involved in super pacs. this is the blue wall when it comes to democrats and republicans, there will be a tough race against tammy baldwin. when you talk to people on both sides, the numbers in favor of tammy baldwin but when you have the money and you've seen the president tweeting, this is going to be a race that will matter. >> and when you tal...

They are willing to talk about border wall money but when it comes to actual immigration policies and picking people up and pushing them out of the country, it gets more tenuous for democrats. >> it's also an issue polls miss. if you are in favor of visas, expansion to immigration policies, they don't support it with the same intensity as donald trump's base field about immigration, how they feel about illegal immigrants. the level of intensity and passion is so different. we saw it. the gang of eight spent so much more money and the other side won. in their offices with no donor money, no est...