greatest represented democracy in human history and that s us and happy halloween. and that s hardball for now. all in with chris hayes starts right now. tonight on all in why in the world the fbi would decide to jump into an election with no evidence of any wrongdoing with just days to go. fbi director james comey under fire. ten days to go? i think it s disgraceful. criticism coming from across the political spectrum. i think this is probably not the right thing for comey to do. but is the fbi decision actually impacting voters? we ll breakdown the state of the race with over 23 million votes already cast. jew usa!rom lock her up to jew sa! if in a donald trump close to the election. a second source later confirmed that same story to the huffington post. now, this all comes as comey faces growing backlash for his decision three days ago to announce the bureau had discovered a new trove of e-mails belonging to top clinton aide huma abedin discovered during an investigation of abedin s estranged husband, anthony weiner, for allegedly sending elicit texting to an underage girl. we still have no idea what s in those new e-mails and we have no idea if they have anything to do with the original investigation of potential classified information on hillary clinton s private e-mail server. the fbi has now began to review abedin s e-mails but it remains unclear if they are finished before election day. what we do know about the e-mails and the decisions to make them public 11 days before the election has come largely by leaked to the press. comey explains his thinking and acknowledges potential consequences. given that we do not know the significance of this newly discovered collection of e-mails, i don t want to create a misleading but i wanted you to hear directly from me about it. anonymous sources said he had two main reasons, a sense of obligation to lawmakers and testified this summer and concern that word of the new discovery would be leaked to the media and be reported as a cover-up. the clinton probe has been the subject of an internal feud at the fbi. some investigators pushing for a more aggressive approach. it s been widely reported that in disclosing the new e-mails, comey acted against the guidance of his boss, loretta lynch, and against department policy. earlier today, clinton addressed that issue in cleveland, ohio. i m sure a lot of you may be asking what this new e-mail story is about and why in the host janine piero. i think it s disgraceful. i m outraged because it s a violation of department justice policies and procedures, whatever. it was probably inconsistent with protocol so in that sense you have to question the decision. the protocols are put in place for a reason and ensures more consistent decision making and in that sense you have to question this decision. comey s actions violate not only long-standing justice department policy, the directive of a person that he works under, the attorney general. but even more important, the most fundamental rules of fairness and impartiality. even some of the gop s most famous flame throw ers have bee critical. joe walsh said, look, i think comey should have said prosecute her back in july but what he just did 11 days before the election is wrong and unfair to hillary. and then a member of the outspoken freedom caucus in the case of the a post-election leadership coup. i actually agree. i think this was probably not the right thing for comey to do, but this whole case i think they ve mishandled. i m joined by sheldon whitehouse. he s a former judiciary committee. basically, this would leak, so instead of the director of the fbi writing a letter, you would have reports popping up from unnamed official sources saying we found a bunch of e-mails and it looked like a cover-up so he had to do something. what do you think. if the fbi is not a safe place for classified information or confidential investigative information to go, that s a problem that he needs to address in a very, very serious way. there s a very important public right at stake behind all of this, which is that prosecutors and investigative agencies, like the fbi, get incredible power to look through our personal lives, to look through our papers, to look through our e-mails and they get that power at the price that they are not allowed to disclose it unless they are bringing charges. when i was the attorney general of my state with broad criminal jurisdiction, when i was the united states attorney, we had a very clear rule. any derogatory information that we developed in an investigation had to be listed in the charging document, in the indictment or in the criminal information or else we didn t talk about it. and if there were no charges, then we would never divulge derogatory investigative information, least of all opinion about the suspect who had never been charged. so director comey broke that rule right off the bat with his first press conference. the second bright red flag is that you don t engage with the legislature. he had no obligation to congress to clarify anything. once a prosecutor goes down the rat hole of trying to make sure that congress thinks that what he s doing is fair, there s no going back. and congress is perfectly able to manipulate that by denying its approval, by false criticism and so comey is caught in a terrible trap now of his own making and it s stunning to people who are prosecutors if someone has experienced and honorable as him would fall into this trap. it s fascinating to hear that from a member of the article 1 branch, u.s. senator, to say that this idea of sort of bending the congress or being worried that he was misleading the congress, you don t think that s a legitimate concern in this case? that s totally not a legitimate concern. of all of the people that investigators involved in a criminal investigation should be concerned about, they have no obligation to congress. look, they have an obligation to the integrity of their investigation. and the integrity of their investigation includes keeping information confidential and within the investigation until it s charged. you don t get to be a smearer at large with derogatory information and that s what that rule is designed to protect against and that s the trap that director comey fell into and it s astonishing. what s so insane to me and i ve got to give kudos to the team that reported this paul manafort inquiry, but it s the same problem there. this stuff should not be leaking. we re journalists. but from an ethical standpoint what was interesting, after the comey letter, you have three straight news days of articles with nothing but warring factions of the fbi leaking info without an investigation anonymously and prosecuting this in the court of the public opinion and shredding any presumption of innocence that might have existed. this is a terrible week for the fbi. i have never seen the agency with such indiscipline, with such disregard for these basic prosecutorial principles and ultimately when the dust settles, whether it s donald trump or hillary clinton, the institution that s going to suffer the most will be the federal bureau of investigation for having broken these very, very basic principles of fairness and of prosecutorial conduct. senator sheldon whitehouse, strong words. thank you for taking the time tonight. appreciate it. i m joined by jennifer granholm and richard painter, chief ethics white house lawyer under george w. bush. and mr. painter, let me start with you. i read your op-ed. it was somewhat surprising to me but there seems to be a collective gasp happening after what we ve seen played out in the last three or four days. well, absolutely. the fbi s job is to investigate, not to play politics and the fbi certainly doesn t have an obligation to report to congress but should not be reporting to congress. and the members of the house oversight committee have no business pressuring the fbi to deliver to them information on their political enemies. in this case, hillary clinton. now, in this situation, it appears that the fbi did not have any derogatory information about secretary clinton because they hadn t even gotten a warrant to look at the laptop. so they didn t even know what was in there and yet they are firing this letter up to the hill telling the members of congress that they have all these e-mails. that was inappropriate and, not only that, a violation of the hatch act. the only use of that letter only conceivable use is political. and that s exactly what was done with it and it went up on the internet and then they passed the torch to donald trump and this is a tragedy for the fbi. i am i want to ask you a question, jennifer, in a second. but let me just follow up on that. the hatch act is the federal statute that guides essentially that bars political activity while on the federal dollar. it creates bright lines between essentially civil service activity and political activity. it s a very important part of the civil service architecture of the country. you re accusing comey of violating that. that s a very serious thing to say. well, it s he did violate it. the members of congress, they are not subject to the hatch act. right. there s the president. but the president can t order the fbi or pressure the fbi to investigate his political enemies. neither can members of congress. and that s what s been going on here and we ve had it going on for a year and the fbi s conducted its investigation. they closed the investigation and, by the way, they did not reopen the investigation. i don t know where that came from. but once this letter was sent, it s been blown out of proportion in the media. it s being used for politics and the hatch act prohibits the use of official position to influence an election and i can t imagine a worst violation of the hatch act than the fbi getting involved in partisan politics in trying to influence elections. jennifer, the clinton campaign has been very aggressive on this. you know, they ve organized several phone calls, they ve been public in their frustration and condemnation of james comey. they ve accused him in the wake of the report of him keeping the fbi out of that letter about russia of a double standard, that he was careful about that, not here. is the clinton campaign taking a sledgehammer to an important american institution in precisely they ve attacked donald trump of doing? it s not just the clinton campaign doing it. you have 50 attorney generals who have signed a letter, bipartisan investigation officials, people who are not affiliated with either camp who have long spent their careers as professional investigators or prosecutors signing on saying this as mr. painter has said this is unprecedented. i do think, chris, the double standard issue is a really important one. tonight, you ve got this allegation, this acknowledgement that the fbi has opened an inquiry into paul manafort and his ties to russia and about a month ago there was another report by yahoo that the fbi and intelligence officials were investigating another official tied to the trump campaign named carter page and who was supposed to have ties to russia. those things are really explosive and if the fbi if comey came out and sent a letter to congress saying, yes, i m investigating the fbi for this, there should be there would be incredible outrage. but you don t hear any of that happening. let me stop you right there. the only way we have it is someone leaking it which is improper. that is definitely true. my point is, you don t have the director of the fbi coming out and confirming that. and he is the face of the fbi, which is why this is such a pickle and which is why only he, now that he s gone through this door, he needs to step through and tell us what he has. i know that it may be you know, we don t know how big the universe is, we don t know if it s just e-mails that huma sent saying print this or something like that, your car s outside. we have no idea what they are. but if it is an innocuous as i know the clinton campaign believes it to be, then he needs he has a duty to let the citizens know that there s nothing here, if he can. this entire episode is a reminder of what a thin line it is between the fbi independent and fbi rogue and for much of his life it was in the latter category. that s something to keep in mind. jennifer granholm, richard painter, thank you so much. you bet. still to come, the new unbelievable pro trump ad from white nationalists. that s after this break. you work at ge? yeah, i do. you guys are working on some pretty big stuff over there, right? like a new language for crazy-big, world-changing machines. well, not me specifically. i work on the industrial side. so i build the world-changing machines. i get it. you can t talk because it s super high-level. no, i actually do build the machines. blink if what you re doing involves encrypted data transfer. wait, what? wowwww. wow? what wow? there is no wow. [burke] hot dog. seen it. we know a thing or two because we ve seen a thing or two. we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum just serve classy snacks and bew a gracious host,iday party. no matter who shows up. do you like nuts? chanted jew sa. [ crowd chanting jew sa ]. it will be a very, very high priority. that man has been identified as a 51-year-old and he says that s the way i say usa adding, i m around mexican people all the time. i speak spanish. that s just the way i say it. not making it up. seeing as he ended his rant by telling reporters, we re worried about the jews, okay? trump campaign manager kellyanne conway described his conduct as deplorable. we have seen a lot of anti-semites and racists and misogynists who support the trump candidacy. would you call that deplorable? it does not reflect our campaign or candidate. i have to push back on the adjectives that you ve described. these are usa-loving americans. absolutely. who want the country to be safe and prosperous again. the vast majority are not those who chant jew sa but william johnson leaves a quote, the white race is dying out and attacked evan mcmullin who is saying he s going to defeat trump. evan has two mommies. he s over 40 years old, not married and doesn t even have a girlfriend. i believe he s a closet homosexual. don t vote for evan mcmullin. vote for donald trump. in new mexico yesterday, trump falsely claimed hillary advocates, quote, open borders and certainly suggested she would allow 650 million people to, quote, pour in, more than twice the current population, in just one week. he also cited a baseless claim sayi saying immigrants will murder americans. they have warned that hillary s radical plan would result in the loss think of this of thousands of innocent american lives and an uncontrollable flood of illegal immigrants across the border taking jobs and crime would be rampant. joining me now is jason. i guess it s one of these things where you have this conversation, you point to all of these various people and say, look, it s really a thing that these people are supporting trump and the trump folks say and i understand why they do, you re painting with a broad brush and the overwhelming majority are not like that. people don t stand at the rally of a major party nominee chanting jew sa. right. right. donald trump was a racist and gets support by racists. this has not been a question for a long time. he started this campaign by saying there are rapist mexicans and good mexicans. and this is a problem. and it s not because we haven t had racist presidents before. we definitely have throughout american history. i would say that would be the norm, actually. exactly. he s not going to be the first. but he s mainstreamed it. even the turn alt-right. now we have hipster neo-nazis and that s considered fine and sexy. it s dangerous no matter if he loses next week. part of this i think is the atmosphere that is driven by the campaign, right? so there s not right. campaigns are not responsible for everything their supporters do. that s just a blanket, important rule. but they do not they have been slow to condemn certain things and here s wayne alan root at a trump rally talking about huma abedin and hillary clinton. take a listen. i have a name for the feature tv movie called driving miss hillary and the ending, if we all get our wish, is like thelma & louise. he s saying we all get our wish that these other two people will die. right. that is sort of par for the course rhetoric. yeah. and it s become normal. and i don t know, maybe that s his new trump tv show. i don t know. but what we ve seen here is that whether it s bill burr, a candidate in north carolina, donald trump, the idea of causing direct violence against your political opponent is a degradation of political discourse. the suggestion that i will jail my political opponent is a degradation of political discourse. the reason we have peaceful transfer of power, people don t worry if they lose they are going to end up in a ghoul la. it makes everyone much more concerned. i would not be surprised if we see violence after this election next week and that s not something anyone wants to see. i m praying that s not the case. richard burr in a neck-and-neck battle audio of him addressing it and i want to play that audio making a joke about hillary clinton in a gun magazine. take a listen. nothing made me feel any better than i walked into a gun shop i think yesterday in there was a copy of rifleman on the counter and it s got a picture of hillary clinton on the front of it. i was a little bit shocked at that. it doesn t have a bulls-eye on it. and he says, look, that was a joke and has since apologized. but there is you know, you cannot go to any event anymore where the range about the feeling of hillary clinton is either she should be in a jail or she should be dead. right. and here s what i see is ultimately the problem with this. kellyanne can say the trump campaign is trying to distance itself from it. this has been the problem in the republican party for years. this is what reince priebus tried to fix saying we need to open up the party but instead they have gone full and the long-term consequences of this, if you have sitting senators who can make jokes about killing someone who may become president, what that does is embolden less stable, less invested people in this country to attack, to shoot, to possibly try to capture a voting location and that s a problem. trump is responsible for it. let s all remember, it didn t start with trump. jesse helms joked about the president being assassinated if he came to north carolina back when bill clinton was president. thanks for joining me. thank you, chris. still ahead, the state of the race eight days out, coming up. and the seagulls they ll be smilin and the rocks on the san it s so peaceful up here. yeah. [eagle screams] that the whole wide world is watchin . introducing the new turbocharged golf alltrack with 4motion® all-wheel drive. soon to be everywhere. [dance music playing] [music stops] woman: looks like it s done. [whistle] [dance music playing] [record scratch] announcer: don t let salmonella get funky with your chicken. on average, one in 6 americans will get a foodborne illness this year. you can t see these microbes, but they might be there. so, learn the right temperature to cook each type of meat. keep your family safe at foodsafety.gov. legality of the actions of north carolina elected republican officials has once again been called into question, this time in a lawsuit alleging the state board of elections in three individual county election boards are purging voter roles in a manner disproportionately targeted against african-americans. naacp claims, canceling the voter registrations of thousands of north carolina voters has been targeted and the lawsuit offers details on the disproportionate impact on black voters. for example, in beaufort county, black voters make up 65% of the challenges even though the county is 26% african-american. there s an emergency hearing on that lawsuit on wednesday in u.s. district court in winston, salem. all of this may sound very familiar. it was this past july that a federal appeals court struck down a north carolina voter i.d. law saying its provisions deliberately targeted african-americans with almost surgical precision in an effort to depress and suppress black turnout at the polls. it was only a week ago that an analysis showed that the reduction in early voting sites in north carolina, again, pushed through by the state s republican governor, reduced the number of early votes. for example, guilford county, cut early voting locations from 16 to just one. it saw in-person voting decline roughly 85%. the picture is one of republican-controlled state and local government making it harder for african-americans to vote sometimes targeting the means of voting that they know will be disproportionately used by black voters. nationwide, there have now been 23 million early votes already cast in this election, nearly 12 million in battleground states and that early voting acts as a hedge against wild fluctuations in the final days. what effect is james comey s october surprise having on those polls? we ll talk about that, next. even a rodent ride-along. [dad] alright, buddy, don t forget anything! [kid] i won t, dad. [captain rod] happy tuesday morning! captain rod here. it s pretty hairy out on the interstate.traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. december 14th, 2015. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we ve seen a thing or two. we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum [music] jess: hey look, it s those guys. shawn: look at those pearly whites, man. [music] bud: whoa, cute! shawn: shut-up. jess: are you good to drive? shawn: i m fine. [music] [police siren] jess: how many did you have? shawn: i should be fine. jess: you should be? officer: sir, go ahead and step out of the vehicle for me. shawn: yes, sir. bud: see ya, buddy. today, shawn s got a hearing, we ll see how it goes. good luck! so, it turns out buzzed driving and drunk driving, they re the same thing and it costs around $10,000. so not worth it. so let s start with this idea of how much this is going to affect the race. which a lot of people are thinking about. what s your sort of general working theory right now? you know, we ve looked back at october quote/unquote october surprises in the past and some of them move the polls and some don t and if they move the polls, it s one or two points and so it s possible we get slight movement but no movement works perfectly well. christina, one of the reason i want to have you here, there s a way the political sicientists look at these polls and then the cable news does. right. the political science idea, the fundamentals are the fundenls and most of this stuff is noise. uh-huh. is that your general working theory? if you have asked me any other political year, i would say yes. the only caveat to this is that this year and this particular candidate, djt, i try not to say his name, he s so peculiar and unique because he s a celebrity, he s dominated the media, because essentially created a party within a party. yep. and because he has no record in public office at all, which is weird. not a drop. not a drop. so some of our theories right now are on hold. that s an understatement. essentially, they are out of the window in some ways. we should say right now the polling average has clinton up in the three or four-point we have her by five, but, yeah. somewhere around there. with 300 plus electoral votes if the election were held today, my general feeling about the election has been that a lot of the moving up and down with donald trump has been it drifts away as he attacks a judge or has a feud with a gold-star family or boasts about sexual assault which is later confirmed by 12 women saying on the record he did similar things, but that that number it s like a rubber band. they want to come back because they are partisan force a reason and he s the republican nominee. that s exactly right. before this friday, october surprise ever broke, we saw trump moving up slightly in the polls before then. even if he does rise, we can t necessarily say it was because of this. it is because he was getting more republicans than he was before after he shut his mouth. the key dynamic, even when he comes up to that ceiling, that is not and if you talk to the data folks who think about this a lot, they just think they have more votes. they think that the obama coalition is a bigger coalition and if they identify those voters, turn them out, that they have the bigger slice of the pie. so, i m of multiple minds of this and this keeps me up at night. i do think hillary clinton, if we look at the electoral math, if we look at the states that she needs, i think my political science brain says she has them. if people turn out, not even at obama levels, if we ve taken the average from 1992 until the principle, i think she s pretty solid. the issue is, i wonder if these trump people, who are first-time voters, who have never been polled. right. i wonder if they will turn out and they are the noise that we actually haven t been listening to. and there s a lot of uncertainty here. exactly. yeah. and with hillary clinton in a lot of ways, less is more. so the less democrats see of her and the less independents see of her, the more they like her. and so in some ways that s been a strategy, to sort of keep her although, i would disagree in this way. the less coverage they see of her, they like her. the more they see her, the more they like her. she s great one on one and with crowds. it s the coverage of her. that s the point. we have scandal, drama. we have sort of this throwback to 1992 and it s all of the baggage that the clintons bring. the two biggest things that have happened from a polling perspective, the conventions, hillary clinton talking to you and the first debate, here s hillary clinton. so the best things for her have been her actually out there with sustained attention of her as a person and her candidacy and then it ebbs and it moves back in the direction. the e-mails are a proxy for distrust. right. the more information we get about these e-mails, independents are struck with the fact that but the question about that is one of the things we re seeing is how strong the partisan fundamentals are even in parsing the e-mail story at this late stage of the race. asked about the october surprise and you see in fact the clinton voters saying, no, we actually like her more. right. and that s the question, in the big uncertainty, how many persuadables are left, how much this stuff affects them and introduced by the johnson/stein the only reason donald trump has closed the gap in the last few weeks, it s not because hillary clinton dropped. it s because donald trump went out and that s always the number to look at. if he s consolidating the republican base. it s still not been enough. harry and christina, thank you for that. thanks. still to come, candid close accounts from those who work with donald trump and how they coax him away from angry tweets. and lower your ability to fight them. tell your doctor if you are being treated for an infection or have symptoms. or if you have received a vaccine or plan to. inflammatory bowel disease can happen with taltz. including worsening of symptoms. serious allergic reactions can occur. now s your chance at completely clear skin. just ask your doctor about taltz. [baby talk] [child giggling] child: look, ma. no hands. children: i , j , k . [bicycle bell rings] [indistinct chatter] [telephone rings] man: hello? [boing] [laughter] man: you may kiss the bride. [applause] woman: ahh. [indistinct conversation] announcer: a full life measured in seats starts with the right ones early on. car crashes are a leading killer of children 1 to 13. learn how to prevent deaths and injuries by using the right car seat for your child s age and size. thing 1 tonight, the president and first lady celebrated their final halloween in the white house today when a group of kids started performing a dance to the michael jackson s hit thriller, they just couldn t help themselves. it s no surprise, a lot of people based their halloween costumes on two people who want to move in. take this kid dressed as donald trump s hair. that seems to stare at you no matter which way you look at it. katy perry transformed herself into hillary clinton. a woman says she dressed up as 2016 in general with a recreation as this is fine dog. a lot of people have been sharing this throughout the election. very well done. and a common theme at trump rallies, in a jail jumpsuit. not everyone is wearing a halloween costume. thing 2 in 60 seconds. the only one to combine a sleep aid plus the 12 hour pain relieving strength of aleve. now i m back. aleve pm for a better am. you re a smart saver. you fi ways to stretch your dollar. so why not compare your medicare part d plan with other options? call or go online now and see how aetna medicare rx saver could help you save. with a low monthly plan premium. access to over 60,000 pharmacies. plus $1 tier 1 generic medications at preferred pharmacies including walgreens and walmart. shop smart. compare your part d options today. and find out if aetna rx saver is right for you. even halloween is not giving a reprieve of the election. this costume at a far festival where someone dressed as hillary clinton wearing a bright orange jumpsuit getting arrested by two police officers. those are real police officers in uniform pretendsing to arrest hillary clinton and that guy on the right is also president of a medford police union. the pictures were originally posted to the union s facebook along with the caption, look who npd arrested. hillary wasn t the only nominee they posed with. there s a picture of police officers hanging out with someone dressed as donald trump, the caption reading, making america great again with a flag emoji, which is sort of a different feeling than the other one. both posts have since been removed and the president of the police union apologized saying, these were halloween costumes, it was meant totally as a joke. i apologize if this offended anyone in any way. i never expected this reaction. it was poor judgment on my part. nothing quite brings out poor judgment like halloween more than our election. now we re on a winning streak and i m never taking them off. do i know where i m going? absolutely. we re going to the playoff. allstate guarantees your rates won t go up just because of an accident. starting the day you sign up. so get accident forgiveness from allstate. and be better protected from mayhem, like me. but the best place to start is in the forest. kubo: i spy something beginning with. s beetle: snow. kubo: no. beetle: snow covered trees. monkey: nothing to do with snow. narrator: head outside to discover incredible animals and beautiful plants that come together to create an unforgettable adventure. kubo: wow! narrator: so grab your loved ones monkey: don t even. narrator: and explore a world of possibilities. kubo: come on, this way. narrator: visit discovertheforest.org to find the closest forest or park to you. toddlers. and here are a couple cool things we should tweet today. it s like saying to someone, how about having two brownies and not six. this theme that trump lacks self-control and discipline and is easily manipulated and also widely stubborn was illustrated when the new york post said trump offered chris christie his position and then rescinded it. manafort reportedly concocted a story and told trump his plane had a mechanical problem forcing trump to spend another night in indiana. pence made the case to be his number two. if the petulance is one aspect of trump s profile, another is his very apparent obsession with revenge. we ll tell you what his favorite bible verse is, and we re not joking, next. [burke] hot dog. seen it. covered it. influenced him most, an eye for an eye. joining me is michael steele and benji. it s also not like hidden. he s very much explicit about the role that vengeance, retribution, you hit me, i hit you, it s central to the way he s conducted his campaign and his world view. this is part of what people like about donald trump and what donald trump thinks himself as his guiding principle. i m a counterpuncher, he ll say, you have to fight fire with fire, he ll say and applies this to so many different things, i thought it would be good to take this as the way it explains his view and politically he ll attack opponents viciously, coming up with some excuse saying they attacked him but also with a policy level, torture, taking out families of suspected terrorists. killing terrorist family members is quite illegal. yes. michael, the thing i keep thinking about it, there s this creation with donald trump s campaign how he went to the last correspondents dinner and the president dressed him down and poked fun at him and i ll get you back. you wonder how that s going to be directed at the republican party should he fall short or even if he doesn t fall short, if he wins, either way, you know, we saw kelly anne conway when tammy duckworth threw dirt on the grave. you ve got to think retribution is going to be on the mind after this election, win or loss, against the people he feels wronged him. i think you ve already seen some of that. i think we can gather, from benjy s piece, that donald trump is an old testament guy. and because he s an old testament guy and really is coming out of the world of an eye for an eye and sometimes that extends into a lot of things that it shouldn t. for example, you ve already seen just in the last few weeks where the trump campaign is like, you know, we re not raising any more money for the party. we re just not. and that s just not what you do. right. you know, with two or three weeks left in the presidential campaign. so there s some aspects of this where donald trump has had enough of the gop. he s been fed up with this as he would look at them sort of elitists, weak-minded leadership and sort of taking a strike out on his own to finish his campaign up on his terms in the way he wants to and that, again, is a slap in the face to the party. part of it, also, this other sort of aspect of his personality, the way that people who work for him talk about him. let me say that, for the record, that there s a sort of common theme like staffers on capitol hill, you have to manipulate them, pro us doers in cable news led to water. this is sort of a common sort of trope among people who have to staff folks but it s another level with the way that trump staff talks about him. i mean, everyone around him is always talking about trying to kind of get this completely unruly undisciplined person to do certain things. it seems like a condemnation of the temperament of the person you want to give the nuclear codes to. you need to cajole him with brownies. we re talking about the most powerful job in the world. every president can use a few brownies. that s true. it s not like this hasn t happened in other administrations. that s true. there s a baseline. yeah, there is. but i take your point this way because there is something about the difference that has been a stark one for donald trump. here s a guy who s basically done a lot in business and in the private sector on his own against the odds without a lot of people telling him how to do it and, quite frankly, not giving a damn what they thought about how he was doing it from when his dad said don t go to manhattan and it s like, yeah, right, i m going to manhattan. it shouldn t surprise us that you take this asymmetrical person who has never had to account to anyone other than himself and bring him into politics and we re asking why aren t you doing what we tell you to do? it doesn t work that way and the expectation that it ever would is a shame on us for thinking it. right. although, discipline, it matters in the white house. no, it does. it s not like he s being wild and out of control, right? it goes back to this theme. judge curiel it s retribution.
one point, two point and even. and i think we have a greater, a tremendous enthusiasm, much greater enthusiasm than she has. yesterday kellyanne conway acknowledged they were the underdogs. let s watch her. where do you see this race right now? do you acknowledge that you re behind? we are behind. she has some advantages like 66 million in ad buys just in the month of september. our advantage going in, we were behind 1, 3, 4 points in some states that mitt romney lost to obama. he will continue to take the case to the people. arguing with fox news decision desk over the results, throwing in the towel, for his party s candidate, let s watch him. if he plays it inside straight, he can get in. but i doubt he will be able to play it he has 186 electoral votes in states that he either leads outside of the margin of voters. i m not sure what is his strategy? saying he is going to win and polls are wrong or say he is getting screwed, polls are right. what is his strategy here? we re seeing two things happen here. donald trump i think is in one way trying to tell people that he is realizing that he is behind or that he wants to rile up his base and tell people, there s still time, we need to get this together. but there is another part of donald trump where he is in denial in some ways. he sees the same polls he would be talking about if he was winning and says now they are rigged and it goes to the idea of making a case that election is rigged and wants supporters to feel like if i lose it is not because of anything i did but really because the media and people who are rigging this election. yeah. he is really trying to be scientific about it or clinical. let me tell you how they rig it. they give more weighting to democrats when they are polled than to the potential republican voters. he is really getting into the science of polling and showing how it s being, according to him, rigged. i m not sure what the same time is, except the polls are rigged, elections are rigged, is that theme to get his people out? i think a theme to get his people out but i should say it is part of this him being angry at the system. yes he want his voters out and they are enthusiastic. i two say he is bright with that but then his supporters are very enthusiastic. there is a little bit of that going on. but he is really kind of the departing from the message of his campaign. kellyanne conway is trying to tweet out and do interviews where she says we understand we are behind. she wants people to understand they are serious presidential candidates and they understand what numbers are saying to them. donald trump is doing what he wants to do in this case. hugh, can you understand the strategy? public strategy? no, not really. i think it s important for him to focus on the obama care melt down, lead polsters to polling. if he wants to point to anything, point to tom cotton winning by 17% two years ago in arkansas and mitch mcconnell winning by 13%. nothing predicted to anything that close to that kind of landslide. i learned, trust the real clear politics average and campaign on the issues. what do you think was, i hate to take you down a rabbit hole you don t want to go down but why was the race underpolled? why was mitch mcconnell underpolled? i think state polling is more difficult than national polling. i ve tried to clear it up. the bigger the sample, the bigger it is to moddel a turn out. every six years on an off year is a real bust. but cotton won by 17 points. brad of politico pointed out to me the last poll showed him winning by 8 to 10. but three weeks out they thought it bass a dead heat and cotton wins by 17 point. it does give you some pause at polls. tad, i don t understand. two weeks to go in the polls, why doesn t trump say the following. if you like the way things are going, vote for the usual candidate, hillary clinton. if if you like wait we have uncontrolled immigration, vote for that. if you like the stupid wars, vote yes for that. if you vote for hillary clinton you re voting for the way things are and set up smartly instead of arguing about polling and crap like that. your thoughts? my thoughts because he is not a disciplined candidate. he doesn t care about the mechanics of campaigns. he doesn t stick to a message. this guy will say whatever wasn t to say if he thinks it serves his purposes at that moment. a twitter kind of form of communication be you know, i think he is trying to offer reassurance to supporters he is not out of it. but truth is he has fallen far behind. what do you think happened to him? the tape from 2005? what is it that broke his clans? i think the combination of number one, the debates where hillary clinton performed like a president. she dealt with him very effectively. number two, the tape released of him on the bus confirmed all of the suspicions that people had about him. particularly with women. that s why he is trailing. 20 point down in the abc poll with women right now. i think a combination of those events. trump went after the media today again saying we is looking out for working americans. i wish he would say, not that i want him to do it, but smart thing is to do it the right way. let s watch. the media isn t just against me. they re against all of you. that s really what they re against. they re not against me. they re against what we represent. the media is entitled, condescending and even contemptuous of the people who don t share their elitist views. and this is all for money. for money largely. money and power. i see you and i hear you. i am your voice. let me go to hugh on that. what do you make on the argument he represent the regular folks out there and the media represent the elite and why would the media, a lot of media are ivy leaguers and you might say the intellectual elite, i don t think that s what i would brag about but they are some of them. why is the media pro elite according to him? give me the motivation. you re on that side of thinking, i want to hear the smart way of saying it mp. thank you. to quote kissinger, it has the benefit of being true. 90% of manhattan elites will vote for hillary clinton and applaud her reelection. that is what dan rather said. news is where you look. those elites look for news in places other than for example the obama care premium hikes or the problems that the fbi. these are stories where if donald trump were making a comprehensive case, it goes back to nixon, you know this chris, an old saw and true saw in the republican cannon that you don t get a fair shake. but you got to deal with it by focussing on issues, not on the problem of bias. you think that s true? do you think that s true? i look at joe biden, he s not elite. i look at bobby of pennsylvania, i don t think he is elite. i look at toomey, he is not elite. who are the elite in the media? give me the names. if we ask people like donald trump or people like bernie sanders, they are both going after some of the same people. talking about the new york times. about the washington post. and really this is something i think that is kind of an effective argument because people do feel when they go and get the news that they are really getting it from these people who have some sort of plan to rig this election or rig the economy or don t want to cover the real issues. when the media is covering the news of the day and what we think is important. there are value judgments. do you know anyone that new york times is pro life? that s an question i m going to answer. i have no idea. do you know anybody? you don t have to name names. do you know anybody i have not asked my coworker that question, i should say. that s cute. i want to say one thing. that s the way you make your point. go ahead. sorry. this idea of, i was talking it a trump supporters today and he said that he felt that donald trump was what he called a blue collar billionaire. that s the first time i heard that term. people believe he is the voice for them and i think that s something that is really powerful and that could be an issue that he could continue to talk about if he wasn t talking about suing his sexual assault accusers. i m going back to you and to. some people like him. he is a sinatra guy. but he acts like a little guy who got to be a big guy. your thoughts? he doesn t sound like that. the language that he uses. but that clip you just played of trump, taking it directly off the teleprompter. very effective. a powerful message. trump s problem is he stops going off the teleprompter. he goes gettysburg to make this address and says he is suing all of the women talking against him. this is stupid and selfish. democrats trying hard to win control of the senate. they are hoping to switch red to blue in pennsylvania. the battle for the senate series. this is hard ball, the place for politics. ntly, 1954 mercedes-be granprix race car politics. and now, anotherercedz makes history sellin at jusover $30,000. and to think this one tually has a surround-sound stereo. the 2016la. lease e cla250 for $299 a l mercedes-bz dealer. mercedesenz. the be. jess: hey look, it s those guys.[musi] shawn: look at those pearly. 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[music] [pole ren] jess: how many did you have? awn: i should be fine. jess: you should be? officer: sir, go ahead and step ouof t vehicle for me. shaw yes, sir. today, shawn s got a hearing, we llee how it goes. good luck! so, it tur out buzzed driving and drundriving, they re thsame thi and it cos. so not wth it. until one youlips a food truck. then your rates go tough the roof. cident fgiveness for driversh liberty mutual insance. lead over challenger katy mcbegin they. pennsylvania trended democratic in recent elections but one thing toomey has for him in history, splitting tickets three times since 19 t92 when specter was voted in and then presidential candidate bill clinton. re-electing rick santorum to the senate and then al gore for president. re-electing specter that time by throwing democrats to john kerry for president. things changed. in 2000 democrats had 500,000 votes advantage and today they have rough lay million voters advantage in registration. toomey has to contend with the coat tails of hillary clinton who leads by 6 points and with challenges facing party s nominee donald trump. over the weekend clinton took on actually the incumbent senator directly. send katie mcginty on behalf of pennsylvania to the united states senate. she is running against someone who refuses to stand up to donald trump. how much does he have to hear or to see? and their first debate on television, toomey has yet to say who he will vote for. whether or not would vote for trump was pressed by the moderator and mcginty to show his choice. as leader in your party, yes or no, do you support as in will you vote for and encourage others to vote for your presidential nominee. because katie is so extremely partisan she can t grasp the idea that someone might have trouble with candidate in their own party. i do. on the other hand i know if he were president would he probably sign legislation that would be constructive. i tell you, waiting to be persuaded is political speak for waiting for the next poll. but again the senators the only person in the united states of america who has not levelled with his constituents on the simple question. are you voting for donald trump? i ll yield the balance of my time back to the senator so he can now answer that question. we will move on. senator one last go at this. will you disclose to your constituents and other voters how you vote before the election? at some point i probably will. moderator sound like me. a few days later toomey acknowledged he is in a tough spot. i am still in the same mode i was monday night which is feeling stuck. feeling stuck. politicians don t usually say that. guys sees democratic strategist and head of the pro clinton super pac. we know what predicament is. two kind of voters who could vote for toomey. those for trump and republicans not for trump. two groups of voters. you knock one group, the other group may not like you and reverse the same thing. hard it keep both republicans groups happy. politically it is a tough spot, no question for that. for pat toomey, good senator focus owned policy, he is torn between hillary clinton who he hates, doesn t think she would be a good president and trump who he also doesn t like. he has been up front about trump s outrageous policies and statements. pat toomey has a good record. partisan achievement on gun control and other things and i think that s why he is leading despite distraction eats the top of the ticket is throwing at him. last yes on the very front. do pennsylvania voters still believe there is such a thing as east coast republican? a jack heinz republican? do they think there are republicanes who not right wingers they would feel comfortable voting for especially in the burbs? i think so. and that is pat toomey. one of the most bipartisan senators in the senate. whether you agree or not. worked with west virginia on common sense solution to background checks. worked to keep child sex predators out of school. worked to clear up the backlog at v.a. he is someone who has a record of achievement. that s why he is leading right now in a challenging year over all for republicans. guy, democrats have told me but pennsylvania democrats at the very top level told me toomey is shrewd and coming out for background checks with his partner from west virginia a dell considerate that he has done just enough on guns not to defend the nra and therefore win in the burbs, what do you think? i think you illustrated it perfectly. not only when it comes to trump but when it comes to guns he is trying to have it both wayes. democrats have done a good job on pushing back on the narrative in part by using toomey s own words about being a friend and reliable vote for the nra and point you to the fact that he is how is he different than casey, democratic senator from pennsylvania on guns? on guns? yeah. how is he different? sure. there is a couple of things. if you look at assault weapons, still issues there in terms of him disclosing what he believes. he also says according to the nra, opposing supreme court justices in part because of their view of the second amendment and supports grup donald trump and that is the heart on the just to delineate, he is different than the popular incumbent democratic senator on guns. they vote for background checks. right. but on assault weapons ban, on limit on ammunition, vietnam for supreme court justice based on the second amendment which the nra score chess is why most democrats almost always get an f even if they are mildly supportive and in terms of their support of donald trump. thank you, guys. when we return, my election diary for tonight, october 24th with just 15 days to go. this is hardball , the place for politics. see your lexus deale if youavrate to sere ulcerative colitis or crohn s, anyour symptoms have left you th the same view, it may be time for a different perspeive. if other treatments haven t woed well enough, ask your doctoabout entyvio, the only bioloc developed and approved just for uc and crohn s. envio wos by focusg rited in the gi-tract to help control damaging inflammation and is cnically proven to begin helping many pients infusionnd serious allgicef as reacons ression. can happenurinor after trtment. entyo may increase risofinfect which can be seriousus while not reported with entyvio, pml, a re, serioubrain infectiocaused by a virus may be possible. tell your door if you have infection, exrience fquent infectns, or he flli symoms,you have or sores.n, liver problems can occ entio. if yr uc or crohs medicaon isn t rkinfor yo ask your gastroenterologist about entyvio. entyvio.elieand remissio within reach announcer: the test you. but hover loud the loudness gets. however many cheese puffs may fly. you re the drier. the one in control. stand fm. just wait. a move only whe you hear the click thatays they re buckled in for the drive. never give up till they buckle member when you said men are suriyeah.e? yeah, then how d i get thi.. .allste sa driving bos chk? member when you said men are suriyeah.e? ..nlallstate sds you a bonus chk yeah, then how d i get thi.. for evy six months you . silence. it s good to be in, good hands. we can t go back to the years of devastating cuts to public education. so vote yes on prop 55. prop 55 prevents $4 billion in new education cuts, without raising taxes on anyone, and with strict accountability. budget forecasts show if we don t pass prop 55 big cuts that hurt our kids are coming, and california will suffer budget deficits all over again. so vote yes on 55. because it helps our children thrive. with the perpetual investigation of the probe of democrats. you see it in the president s big push of senate candidates wherever he goes. he doesn t want just a mandate for hillary. he wants whopper. then baghdad bob said this isn t true. he was the guy broadcasting from the iraqi capital as the u.s. troops arrived to take over the city. today the die hard voice coming from the republican presidential campaign is that of the candidates himself. baghdad bob, meet donald trump. that s hardball for now. join us tomorrow 7:00 p.m. eastern. see you then. usin00 pois fr my asink ca i boughtveggies.it. anherbs needed to create a pop-up pick-your-own ice ba in the middle ofhe city, so nowveryone knows. we he some of thfresst injuice in tn.ofhe city, see what the powerf potscan d. learn more at chase.com/ink see what the powerf potscan d. t whening tough choices. jim! y re in! but when you hav high blood pressure and need cold medine that wks fast, the choice isimple. coricidin hbp is the onlbrand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raraing your blood pressure. con hbp. tmom didn t want anotr dog.g. she said it s too much work. lulu hair just floats. uhh help me! 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but let me tell you about something. i m against jews or anybody else who puts the interests of some other place over our own country. not opposed to all jews. something said, actually said in a senate debate stage in the year 2016. today s louisiana senate debate took place in an empty auditorium at a historically black college called dillard university in new orleans. students at dillard protested. there aren t arrests. some people were reportedly pepper sprayed by university police as they tried to protest outside the debate hall. but inside david duke assured us all he is not against all jews. happy 2016. that does it for us tonight. we will see you again tomorrow. now it s time for the last word with lawrence o donnell. good evening, lawrence. rachel, the debate was even worse than you presented. we re going to present i was going to use the word highlights. we re going to present excerpts of this debate, this david duke debate coming up. and he attached himself to donald trump as if donald trump was his running mate. donald trump really was his running mate in that room tonight. that s to whom he credits his success in the senate race this far. absolutely. thank you, rachel. we will bring you those excerpts from the ugliest debate of the year. this makes the donald trump performances look elegant compared to david duke. but first, how republicans in the battleground states can stop donald trump. we have six days. six days. time enough to tell your family you love them and make your peace with god. we re going to pretend we re down. we re down. pretend, right? it s gotten more competitive. but hillary clinton is still over 270. she shouldn t be allowed to run. imagine it is donald trump standing in front of our capital and taking the oath of office. he says he ll be his own foreign policy adviser because he has a good brain. this is one sick puppy. if you vote for hillary, you re a grown-up. stupid people, stupid people. if you vote for trump, you re a sucker. right. that s so nice. he is very cavalier about using nuclear weapons. his rhetoric is off the wall on this topic. it s not actually. i think right here you re being delusional. no, i m not. i m not being delusional. it s strange how over time what is crazy gets normalized. anybody want to go swimming? let s go. what are we thinking of doing here? six days away. no side tracks, donald. nice and easy. this is the last word on campaign 2016. tonight in many battleground states across the country, the voters who are standing between donald trump and the presidency are republican never trump voters. the never trump movement was left for dead by the political republican early voters in florida are voting for hillary clinton. that is the only tracking survey with actual early voting results in florida. the only one. that same survey combined with likely voter election day polling predicts that hillary clinton will win 48% of the vote in florida to donald trump s 40%. that winning margin would obviously contain a very large republican vote against donald trump. hillary clinton is campaigning in arizona tonight where at this point, four years ago, president obama didn t have a chance against mitt romney, who won arizona with a 9-point margin over president obama. a new cnn poll shows donald trump only five points ahead of hillary clinton in arizona, with donald trump at 49. hillary clinton at 44. that same poll shows john mccain 13 points ahead of his democratic challenger ann kirkpatrick. with john mccain at 54 and ann kirkpatrick at 41. so about 5% of the people who are voting for john mccain for senate are also voting for hillary clinton for president. the clinton campaign announced today it s almost doubling their television ad buy in arizona, spending over a million dollars in just the last week. the clinton campaign has 33 field offices in arizona that will be working to get out the vote. the trump campaign is not making a similar effort in arizona. arizona republic reporter dano wiki told the washington post trump doesn t have much of a ground operation. and it seems like trump isn t interested in investing money here. trump mostly is relying on personal appearances and earned media there is a similar polling problem for donald trump in wisconsin. in wisconsin, a new marquette poll out today shows hillary katie, it s hard to think about where this campaign would be tonight without a never trump movement among republicans. well, one of the reasons so many of us oppose trump in the primary, lawrence, is we really thought donald trump would be the weakest republican candidate in a general election. and i think we re seeing that play out. we re seeing hillary clinton having, you know, a horrible closing week on this campaign and still donald trump isn t able to close the deal because he is viewed by so many independent and soft republican voters, and even some really hard republican voters who view him as appalling and unacceptable. and i think if any of the other candidates had prevailed, they would be winning this thing in a landslide. let s listen to donald trump in florida today where in the middle of his speech, he starts talking to himself. and then, of course, says hillary clinton is unhinged. let s watch this. republicans well, all republicans. i don t know anybody that is undecided really at this point that is not a republican. but have i talked to people who were kind of on the fence. and this whole thing with clinton has kind of reinforced, you know, 20 years of hatred that has built up against hillary clinton. and there are people that are feeling like, well, i m going to hold my nose. i don t like donald trump. but i m going to hold my nose because hillary clinton is just so corrupt. the problem for trump is that he was only at about 79% of republican voters two weeks ago. and he needs to be at like 94 or 95% of republican voters if he is going to be competitive. mitt romney had 93% of republican voters and still lost the election. i don t think donald trump can close that gap. particularly among republican women. we ve seen in poll after poll after poll where he is underperforming with republicans. it s largely among republican women. and it may just be that he is terrible. he is everything you say about him. but at least he is not hillary clinton. and katie is right. the fact that he cannot close the deal at this point is really a sign of his disadvantages. because you can certainly imagine that any other republican given the events of last week, given the obamacare, the e-mails, the anti-clinton sensibility out there that any other republican would be closing and sealing the deal. i don t think he is going to be able to do it. let s listen to hillary clinton tonight talking about donald trump. the thing that is so shocking to me is no matter who you are, what your background is, if you don t fit into a very narrow category of people that he can relate to, then somehow you don t have a part in trump s america. that really bothers me. katie, that s her message in nevada tonight. yeah. and i think that as charlie mentioned, there are a lot of groups that feel that one of the reasons that i think women have pulled away from trump from early on is this sense that if you don t look like a victoria s secret super model, you don t have any value as a woman. if you aren t sort of a wealthy white american like donald trump, then you re a loser. you re a failure. and you don t fit in trump s america. i sort of agree with that sentiment. and i don t think that s a democrat sentiment. i think it s a sentiment that a lot of people are feeling when they hear the rhetoric from donald trump s mouth and they hear what many of his supporters are saying. and i think it s troubling. all right. we re going to have to leave there it. take a break. charlie sykes, thank you very much for joining us tonight. we really appreciate it. katie, we re going to need you for another discussion coming up. next we have breaking news from louisiana. the senate debate there is a debate unlike anything you have ever seen on a political stage. white supremacist david duke was on that stage. i can t repeat the things he said on that stage. we ll be right back with some excerpts from that debate. we re getting outnumber and outvoted in our own nation. unless we stand up now, our children have no future. infinite scalability. the microsoft cloud helps our customers get up and running, anywhere in the planet. wherever there s a phone, you ve got a bank, and we could never do that before. the cloud gave us a single platform to reach across our entire organization. it helps us communicate better. we use the microsoft cloud s advanced analytics tools to track down cybercriminals. this cloud helps transform business. this is the microsoft cloud. suppositories for relief in minutes and stool softeners for comfortable relief of hard stools. dulcolax, designed for dependable relief former klu klux klan leader david duke is running for senate in louisiana with donald trump as his running mate. the only man the media hate morse than donald trump is me. they hate trump and me because they oppose the massive immigration that will destroy america. we ve got to protect american jobs and industry. we defend our heritage. trump even says we should say merry christmas instead of the pc garbage. the media says he sounds like me. but you know what? we both simply sound like you. vote for trump for president. david duke pour the u.s. senate, and let s take america back. david duke was on stage for united states senate debate tonight. at dillard university, a historically black university. david duke reached the 5% polling threshold for being included in the debate by getting 5.1% in the polls. debate organizers did not allow students the general public, or journalists anyone into that auditorium for the debate. but protests gathered outside to protest david duke s presence. here is what happened when the moderator tried to get david duke to respond to a question about taxes. would you not interrupt me and give me my time look, you re not one of the debaters here. i m sorry, mr. snell. gave me a chance and you re interrupting me. i ll let you rebut, sir. federal prosecutors said see, you re not a moderator. you re a typical media we re going to move on. mr. flemming, go ahead. your time. you re going to silence me? you re going to prevent me from answering this question? i d like you to answer the question. that s the problem in this country. the media is deciding who our candidates are no, sir, no, sir. you re a hypocrite. mr. flemming you have the floor. i was going to answer the question if you gave me the chance. you didn t give me the chance. mr. flemming has the floor. the truth is anybody who stands up in this country tells the truth what is happening to our country, we re losing our country. anybody who does that is going to be a target of the media just like donald trump. all right. we have to move on. watch what is happening to donald trump. joining us now, david corn, the washington bureau chief from mother jones and jonathan capehart, an opinion writer for the washington post and an msnbc contributor. he is also host of a new podcast called cape up. well, jonathan, it strikes me as no surprise that david duke is basically declaring that his running mate is donald trump. right. not at all a surprise. i mean, what donald trump has done is taken the david duke message, blown it out of uisiana and put it not only on the national stage for people to talk about and consider, but turned it into the nomination, the republican nomination for president. and so david because david duke had someone out there spouting his beliefs with a national mega phone, he decided hey, let me come out of retirement and run for senate. if you think the benghazi committees might have been a little bit out of control, listen to david duke tonight talking about hillary clinton. look at trump and the neo cons. we have a cabal in this government that literally controls our foreign policy. syria is a country with 3 million christians. syria is a secular government, nonjihadist. it was just admitted by clinton that our government has been supporting saudi arabia which she admits was supporting isis. the lady should be getting the electric chair being charged for treason. david corn, i can t even think of a question. well, you know, what donald trump has done is normalize a little kinder, gentler version of david dukism. trumpism is very much like dukism. look at what he has done. he gave a speech recently in which he railed against the conspiracy of international bankers. that used to be code word for jewish people. donald trump said we should keep muslims out of this country. this arch bigotry in which david duke and the kkk supremacists are all for. paul ryan, the number one republican, elected republican in the land said that donald trump was making racist comments when he called a federal judge a mexican because his parents came from mexico. so you have racism, bigotry, and hints of anti-semitism, all in things that donald trump has said during this campaign. so it s no wonder that david duke said huh, i see an opportunity here. donald trump s lock her up, she should be in jail to david duke translates to she shoul be getting the electric chair. well, don t forget that some of trump s key supporters have called for hillary clinton to be killed and barack obama too. let s listen to david duke talking about jewish people. i m not opposed to all jews. i think there is a lot of great there are a lot of jew is honor. let me tell you something, i m against jews or anybody else that puts the interest of some other place and some other country over our own country that is controlling and dominating the media which is teaching black people and inspiring black people to hate white people and inciting them to violence like the black lives matter. your time has expired. that s my issue. jonathan capehart, that has been his issue for a long time. yes. it s like the golden oldies with david duke. back to his original play list. i mean, look, the idea that he got 5.1% in a poll that allowed him to be on that stage, and to spout so much rage, so much venom says a lot about where the country hopefully isn t going, where the republican party seems to be, where its nominee has made it possible for someone like david duke, who we all thought had gone off, slithered off and taken his hate with him elsewher figured that it was fine to pop back up. i watched parts of the debate, not the entire debate. because there is only so much rage and hate i can deal with in any one day. but the idea that this man has a platform and he is standing on the stage with other people who very well might be infinitely more capable to be a senator from the great state of louisiana, the fact that he is sharing the stage with them is really i mean, it s lawrence, i m almost at a loss for words here what this means for the country. and the trump campaign has had some real screaming anti-semites in its audience and at its rallies. let s look at this guy at a trump event yesterday in miami. a trump supporter yelling at protesters yesterday and the press, yelling at the media yesterday. let s listen to this. you re an embarrassment to your profession. you re an embarrassment. you sell out for a few shekels. for a few shekel, you sell out. david corn, you sell out for a few shekels. that s a trump supporter. and there was a trump supporter shouting jew su at the media event a couple days back. what we see with david duke here, though, there is an extremism within the republican base itself. some polls show a majority view of republicans believed in the birther conspiracy which i would call a racist notion, believed in the muslim ban, which i would call an act of bigotry. and also believed that obama is not a christian. he is a muslim. partly because he is black. there is the republican party has played footsie. donald trump is exploiting it if not encouraging it. duke, while he sat 5%, the fact that these other notions are majority position within the republican party. and that donald trump is close to perhaps being elected president shows that there is a lot of racism, hatred and big industry out there that the republican party is using as fuel. david corp. and jonathan capehart, thank you both for joining us tonight. really appreciate it. thanks, lawrence. the trump campaign is hoping that melania trump can help with their campaign to win women voters. she is going to give her first campaign speech tomorrow. that s next. even a rodent ride-along. [dad] alright, buddy, don t forget anything! [kid] i won t, dad. [captain rod] happy tuesday morning! captain rod here. it s pretty hairy out on the interstate.traffic is literally crawling, but there is some movement on the eastside overpass. getting word of another collision. [burke] it happened. december 14th, 2015. and we covered it. talk to farmers. we know a thing or two because we ve seen a thing or two. we are farmers. bum-pa-dum, bum-bum-bum-bum [baby talk] [child giggling] child: look, ma. no hands. children: i , j , k . [bicycle bell rings] [indistinct chatter] [telephone rings] man: hello? [boing] [laughter] man: you may kiss the bride. [applause] woman: ahh. [indistinct conversation] announcer: a full life measured in seats starts with the right ones early on. car crashes are a leading killer of children 1 to 13. learn how to prevent deaths and injuries by using the right car seat for your child s age and size. g new cars. you re smart. you already knew that. but it s also great for finding the perfect used car. you ll see what a fair price is, and you can connect with a truecar certified dealer. now you re even smarter. this is truecar. speed always wins. especially in my business. with slow internet from the phone company, you can t keep up. you re stuck, watching spinning wheels and progress bars until someone else scoops your story. switch to comcast business. with high-speed internet up to 10 gigabits per second. you wouldn t pick a slow race car. then why settle for slow internet? comcast business. built for speed. built for business. to me it s really exciting to have the first mother in the white house. that s what i think. it s not about the first woman. it s about the first mom. what it is about a mom? because a mother, she s got it. a mother just does it. she s got your she feeds you and teaches you. she protects you. she takes care [ bleep ]. a great father can give a kid 40% of his needs, top. 40%. tops out at 40%. yes, yes. but that s optimistic. yeah. that s optimistic. any mother [ bleep ] just a not even trying mother, 200%. she can t speaking of mothers, melania trump will go to pennsylvania tomorrow and deliver her first speech of the campaign. she did deliver a speech at the republican convention, but that wasn t hers. that one was plagiarized from michelle obama apparently by melania trump s speech writer. 12 whole weeks ago, donald trump promised that melania trump would have a press conference about two weeks from then, which would have been ten weeks ago. a press conference where she would prove that she has always observed the immigration laws of this country. but the trump campaign decided not to do that. the trump campaign continues to refuse to release any of the documents that could actually prove melania trump s legal immigration history. in the final days of this campaign, both the clinton campaign and the trump campaign want voters to think about who donald trump really is. here is the trump campaign s picture of donald trump. the american moment is here. two wbr id= wbr19829 /> choices. two americas. decided by you. donald trump will bring the change we re waiting for. america, better, stronger, more prosperous for everyone. a plan for tomorrow. a future brighter than our past. the choice is yours. and here is the clinton campaign s picture of donald trum putting a wife to work is a very dangerous thing. when i come home and dinner is not ready, i go through the roof. grab wbr id= wbr20129 /> them by the [ bleep ]. and when you re a star, they let you do it. you can do anything. i d look her right in that fat ugly face of hers. she ate like a pig. a person who is flat chested is very hard to be a 10. do you treat women with respect? i can t say that either. all right. very good. /b> joining us now, careen jean-pierre, for moulin.org and a former deputy campaign manager for martin o malley s 2016 campaign and back with us strategist katie packer. karene, they used donald trump s words and kellyanne conway say that is a very, very unfair ad. the best ads that hillary clinton has had is when she uses donald trump s words o. because there is nothing there is nothing better than the facts, right? the actual words that donald trump has used. look, here is the thing. women are not stupid. they know exactly who donald trump. he is the guy because of his candidacy, we have to spend the last 18 months listening to him call us pig, call us fat, call us sluts and also demean our bodies, saying disgusting things about our body. and the most important and dangerous and scariest thing is the sexual assault, right, the history of sexual assault and him bragging on it, about it on tape. so we know exactly who he is. and, you know, the video that they played for him saying oh, introducing who the real donald trump is. no. that is not that is not who he has shown himself to be. when we look at the tapes, when we hear the howard stern radio tapings, and also we have to remember the producers of the the apprentice have said themselves have, been on record there is actually worse things that he has said that mgm has not released. katie, the trump ad say apparently their ad reaching out to women. and their definition that of is there is nothing in the content of it. it just shows a woman voting for donald trump. you know, they have been very, very tone deaf about what it is that women are concerned about in this election. and have really missed the point that women by and large have sort of made up their mind about trump about who he is. when i hear those words out of donald trump s mouth, i imagine my 17-year-old niece hearing that. my 11-year-old niece hearing that. my 20 and 21-year-old nieces hearing that. and the way that it forms how they view themselves when they hear somebody like that that is so influential, that is so demeaning and degrading to women. and we see him being elevated by the republican party. it s not just an affront to women of america, but it s an affront to many, many republican women like myself who look, on either side of us at republican voters and say how did this haen? how did we get here that we re elevating a man of such low character to be our representative and our nominee for the highest office in the land? and how did it come to it that the current president of the united states finds himself having to talk about this on the campaign trail. let s listen to president obama out there today. do you want somebody to be your voice who on tape brags about how being famous allows him to get away with sexual assault? no! who calls women pigs or dogs or slobs. and grades them on a scale of 1 to 10. 23 you disrespect women before you are elected president, you will disrespect women when you re in office. can we just pause for a minute, karine? that s the president of the united states actually quoting a nominated candidate for president. yeah, it goes to what katie was saying. how did we get here? and we got here because, you know, he managed to really tap into something the last 18 months and get rid of his last 16 opponents. it s really, really scary. i think people have been talking about hillary clinton like basically closing argument, how she is trying to talk about the character and how donald trump is unfit. i think she needs to do that. as voters are voting right now, not on november 8th. a lot of voters will vote on november 8th. but people are voting right now. she needs to remind people who donald trump is that he is unfit, unqualified to be president. karine jean-pierre and katie packer, thank you both for joining us tonight. i really appreciate it. thank you. coming up, new polls and early voting information from a key swing state where most of the votes will be cast before election day. that s in tonight s war room. and later, russia isn t the only country where the trump family has complicated business interests unlike anything any president has ever had. that s coming up. i have asthma. can stop breo and prescribe a different asthma control medicine, like an inhaled corticosteroid. do not take breo more than prescribed. see your doctor if your asthma does not improve or gets worse. ask your doctor if 24-hour breo could be a missing piece for you. see if you re eligible for 12 months free at mybreo.com. the markets change. at t. rowe price. our disciplined approach remains. global markets may be uncertain. but you can feel confident in our investment experience around the world. call us or your advisor. t. rowe price. invest with confidence. coaching means making tough choices. jim! you re in! but when you have high blood pressure and need cold medicine that works fast, the choice is simple. coricidin hbp is the only brand that gives powerful cold symptom relief without raising your blood pressure. coricidin hbp. is the last word on campaign 2016. president obama won nevada in both of the last two presidential elections, and we have new numbers tonight about the early vote in nevada and a new poll there. but first, here is how it looked today on the campaign trail. this, my friends, is not a normal election. the system is rigged. remember that. in not so subtle ways, donald trump is doing everything he can to intimidate people and tell them not to come out and vote. don t let trump and his friends intimidate you. hillary clinton is the most corrupt person ever to seek the presidency. and if she were to be elected, it would create an unprecedented constitutional crisis. nothing will change if he is elected. because we know who he is. get up at 3:30 in the morning and tweet vitriol about a woman s body, about her weight? this is one sick puppy. she has become totally unhinged. what she is saying and what she is doing, actually it s unbelievable. he is saying you got to vote for me because i hate all the same people you do. that s about it, isn t it? can you imagine, they gave the questions to donald trump before a debate. you know, it would be the electric chair. they would reinstitute the electric chair. he says he ll be his own foreign policy adviser. he says he can do that because he as a good brain. now that is contestable. trump neither understands nor do i think gives a damn. the american people are getting tired of the fast and loose ethics of the clintons. and it sounds like the department of justice is starting to feel that way too. she shouldn t be allowed to run. f. it immediately neutralizes acid and only gaviscon helps keep acid down for hours. for fast-acting, long-lasting relief, try doctor-recommended gaviscon. than lightning strikes and plane crashes. and if you are texting while driving, your risk of crash increases 23 times. now, i may be an unlucky guy, but i don t have to be part of that statistic, and neither do you. drive responsibly. hillary clinton has spent her whole life standing up to bullies like donald trump. she has been on the receiving end of one attack after another for 25 years now. and i ll tell you, she ain t backing down. she doesn t she doesn t whimper. she doesn t whine. she doesn t go to twitter at 3:00 in the morning to call people fat or loser. no, no. no, hillary just remembers that was massachusetts senator elizabeth warren moments ago campaigning for hillary clinton in reno, nevada. nevada is tonight s campaign war room. the clinton campaign is hoping early voting will mean a win in nevada. early voting has beenup way there for 11 days. nearly half of the state s voters have already cast their ballots. and 2/3 are expected to vote in nevada before election day. with five days left for the presidential campaign war room joining us tonight on the last war, jon ralston, host of ralston live in pbs nevada and a contributor to msnbc. how does it look in nevada tonight? well, the democrats are doing very well here in early voting and absentee ballots so far, lawrence. they have about a 50,000 ballot lead. that s going in today in clark county, which is a big democratic county. that s las vegas. they re building towards what will probably be a 65 or 70,000 vote lead if the pattern holds. it s mirroring 2012 very closely. in 2012, barack obama ended up winning the state by seven points. wbr id= wbr29050 /> i don t think hillary clinton is being to quite get there. but if these numbers hold, and there aren t some really strange anomalies in the last three days, she s probably got a pretty solid lead here, lawrence. speaking of strange, there is a cnn poll out that shows they believe clark county is going or the trump by one point. they have it at 546-45. and the state of nevada by six points. but the clark county thing doesn t make sense based on what you said about the early voting. well, if that s true, then /b> an hannity is going to win a peabody award too, lawrence there is just no chance that donald trump is ahead by one point in a county that has 142,000 more democrats than republicans. and i ll tell you, if by some chance that is true and it goes against every piece of data, private data i ve been privy to, we better start calling him president trump now because something strange is going on. let s listen to elizabeth warren tonight talking about joe hex and donald trump. joe hex is a republican candidate for senate out there. and elizabeth warren is appearing for hillary clinton and for catherine korto masto. have i had it. i have had it with the donald trumps and joe hexes of the world. donald trump is now the leader of the republican party. they got to own that one, baby. there is none of them, i m with him, i m not, i m with him, i m not. no. they got to own this. how does the senate race look? this is a real toss-up race, lawrence. it has been for a long time. that cnn poll that you mentioned showed heck up by a couple of points. it s within the margin of error, i think both campaigns agree. what i understand is in the early voting with the democrats having a fairly sizable lead in clark county, i don t think heck is getting much separation from trump. his separation is around las vegas. so they expect him to do better there. he has done all kinds of incredible contortions about trump in the last few weeks, including just yesterday, weeks after he said he wanted nothing to do with trump, he wanted him to step down from the ticket, he said yesterday in an interview first he wasn t sure who was he was going to vote for and then had to put out a clarifying statement that clarified nothing. how much does that hurt him? the base s campaign says marginally. but it doesn t have to hurt him that much in that race for him to lose. i think that race is going to be very, very close. but if the democrats do well in early voting in the last three days, lawrence, use pointed out, most of the votes are going to be cast before election day. i think it means joe heck is going to have to have a very big november 8 to wbr-id= wbr30850 /> pull that out. what about voter turnout operations on election day? which party has the advantage there? well, you know, it s interesting. because the democrats always do well in early voting for all the obvious reasons, especially here with the culinary union being able to bus workers. and they have a lot more on the ground during early voting. they expect to lose election day. the question is by how much. the trump organization here, trump organization is an oxymoron. there is nothing here. they don t have anything on the ground. the rnc has brought in a bunch of people. and there is some stuff that has grown up organically out of some local republican groups. but compared to the machine that harry reid has built here since 2004, there is no comparison, lawrence. so the democrats actually surprised themselves and won election day in 2012. if they do that this year, it s big trouble up and down the ticket for the republicans. jon ralston, thank you very much for joining us tonight. really appreciate it. absolutely. coming up, wall street journal reporting that the trump family has business dealings in more foreign countries than just russia. countries that are in very difficult some of them have difficult relationships with the united states. o love your laxative. .when that lax loves your body back. only miralax hydrates, eases, and softens to unblock naturally. so you have peace of mind from start to finish. love your laxative. miralax. donald trump has received 1 to $5 million from a company in turkey with ties to prime minister erdogan. 2 to $10 million from a company in indonesia with ties to former dictator suharto. and 1 to $5 million from a company in india founded by a politician. and donald trump has received $2.5 million from a company in azerbaijan linked to the transportation minister. joining us now is alexander burzon. alexander, what would you say are some of the more peculiar aspects of the possible conflicts of interest? i was particularly struck by your report on the complexities the trump family and donald trump might have in dealing with turkey. yeah, turkey is one place where you have a company group which has a lot of complicated relationships with the current government, is a major media company in turkey. and you also have just a lot of potential future relationships that these children of trump who are going to run the business are pursuing all over the world, as they have been for quite a while now. and that presents a potential for conflict of interest of just or conflicts in general that really is unprecedented for a president, according to many of the experts that i spoke to for this story. and in the case of turkey, the current regime believes that there is a cleric currently living in the united states who they would like sent back to turkey, extradited, although he is not charged with any crime here that they could do. but that s the kind of thing where it s hard to imagine donald trump in the oval office hearing this request from turkey about send us this man and dealing with it when he has business interests there. yeah. i mean, i think the issue is he is going to be taking revenue according to his filings, and there is no reason to believe the business will necessarily change, he is taking revenue from people all over the world, oftentimes they re branding arrangements and also hotel management deals. and it s millions of dollars that are coming from people all over the world who have their own political interests in their own countries that are also overlapped with u.s. interests and issues in many cases potentially. the trump it s important to say that i spoke with trump s an attorney for trump who says oh, it s going to be very much a separation. but when he has his children running the companies that is something that we haven t seen before generally presidents do put their interests in a blind trust, which in this case he has used the words blind trust, but a blind trust would not include under a federal definition for it would not
trump is already scrambling the map this year. in utah where the mormon electorate is especially unfavorable to trump his lead is down to 5.5. prompting the campaign to dispatch mike pence to salt lake city less than two weeks before the election to do damage control. he s there tomorrow. mitt romney himself a mormon won utah by 48% in 2012. given trump s polling deficit his lack of ads it came as a surprise that according to the washington post trump has stopped holding high-dollar fund-raisers and relying on online donations which tend to be much smaller. that s after campaign financial reports show more money spent than raised in the month of september. reports add to growing speculation that donald trump is not in very deep psychological sense running to be president of the united states so much as he s running to build up a fan base for donald trump. with the advent of trump tower and then i could advertise a project that i m doing. like doral or something. and spend half a million dollars on it or a million dollars. or i can do the show and spend nothing and be on for a lot longer. on the very day those tapes went public, that s exactly where trump was, doral. his resort and golf club outside miami. the event was ostensibly a campaign photo op with a group of employees, many who are hispanic and support the republican nominee. it sounded like this. 800 acres in the middle of miami. if you look at the ballroom, that was brand-new that didn t exist. it s one of the great places on earth. we had a construction crew here of 1600 people. we rebuilt the whole place in 14 months. we did it under budget although i did increase the scope of the work because we decided to use the finest marbles. while trump was hanging out at his golf course with the finest marbles, hillary clinton was holding an event at broward alternative, which it is a business proposition, a poor business proposition and he s handling it terribly because he s incompetent at doing the one thing he says he s good at. that s a possibility. i think he s far too smart for that and at 70 years old as a billionaire mogul. we ll have to see the tax returns. that s not on his agenda right now. i don t think anyone can doubt this. even if you have the most malicious and nefarious view of donald trump you can t doubt that he s poured his body and soul into this campaign. everyone who runs for president does that. no, no. it s incredibly special. if you were to compare his schedule to hillary clinton s you would see a frenetic campaigner on one side, a man who could be my father all the time, yeah. i could never keep up his schedule versus hillary clinton who campaigns every few days. but you realize this is like one of trump s sons said this is a huge step down for him to run for president. he s not doing it donald trump isn t doing anyone any favors for running to be the most powerful person on the planet, right? i disagree by saying a step down the presidency is never a step down. good, i m glad we agree on that. i think he misspoke there, chris. having said that, i truly believe this, i did, and i came to the trump train late. i m a convert to the trump train. i haven t been drinking trump kool-aid since the very beginning but i ve become a true believer. i really believe this. this man, do you think that at this stage of his life, of his fortune, his career, he needs any of this? no, he doesn t. he is doing this because he sees that our country is gravely ill. we are economically and nationally sick i understand that that s the theory of the case for trump supporters and it s what donald trump says and it s possible that that is actually the case. the other theory of the case and it s not just one that people opposed to him politically believe, but people that share the republican party s beliefs but don t like donald trump is he s fundamentally a narcissist who has become addicted to the attention, is sort of compulsively driven by attention and this has given him an outlet for that attention and crucially doesn t actually care about the party that he is nominally representing in two weeks. that s an important point. chris, to your point, and i will concede this to you, there are some people whom i respect who hold those views. i would counter that by saying that generally they are part of a washington establishment that exists for its own self-aggrandizement yes, i get that. we are the outsiders and the establishment can t stand what we represent. and by the way, i m glad they can t because we re not coming there around the edges. i can say i get that argument. there s some truth to that. you re talking about this wired part of the establishment. but the random mormon voters that wanted nothing to do with the guy are now part of the establishment have come to the same conclusion. thank you. congratulations the campaign just bought a bunch of copies of that book. that s money in your pocket. well, no, it isn t. i ve given away so far $85,000. is that true? $85,000 in royalties so far this year and i ll continue to give it away to anti- pro-immigration causes. trying to make sense of he s going to this hotel. he s at doral today. we ve got the tape saying he s going to his hotel tomorrow. there s a sense in which it could be the case that the incentives of running for president and getting maximum attention for yourself sometimes align and at some point they stop aligning and you just keep going with the incentives for maximum attention for yourself. that s the only incentive he has. so what you said poor steve cortez, what a horrible, horrible job to have to defend this man. and you can see how impossible it is at this point. let me just note on steve s behalf and steve believes in what he s saying and i don t doubt for a moment all the people you see on donald trump have not been drafted into it. everyone has entered into it of their own i don t mean he s doing it against his will. it s a crappy job. no, so i think the point you were making about his need for attention, listen, he has kept upping the ante in terms of getting attention. the new york times peace about michael d antonio s interviews really brought that up again, this desperate feeling that if i m not getting attention, that i barely exist. he s like he s rowing the boat across a river and the promised land is on the other side but there s a hole in the boat and he s bailing, bailing, bailing, and he s bailing so much that he can t actually row the boat. so the promised land is never going to be reached. it s funny you said that because the way this gets understood in the campaign context oh, they re not doing the blocking and tackling, the organizational operational things they need to do in this election, why is he going to his hotel. that s called lack of discipline. if you were just lazy, you would offload that to someone else and let them do the work for you. his incentives are not aligned with the republican party. they are part of the time but not all the time. i also wonder if at this point, given his noted inability to deal with shame, humiliation and loss and what seem like epically deep psychic wounds that he carries around, he just wants to go and be in a place that he feels like he created and right. go back to home. go back to somewhere, something that he maybe can feel good about. yeah, he did end today s doral event by just muttering rosebud over and over again. no, i think the fascinating several different pieces of the trump psyche revealed by what happened today and one of them is this decision not to hold more fund-raisers. what s that about? that s very simple. he s already in revenge mode. desperate. he wants to get the republican party. and if it means blowing up the republican party, the democracy, whatever it takes, donald trump is going to try to get back some semblance of self-worth. and to me, the biggest lesson i ve learned up till now with two weeks to go before the election and the thing i have to take myself back to kind of parse is just how powerful a personality can be when it is as not worried about norms or shame as a normal person. like that s been the big lesson. like, wow, you can really go pretty far and you can get away with a lot. at the risk of violating goodwin s law, this is the big lie, that s why it s so powerful. that most people will not accept the fact that you are who was it that said that eventually donald trump will go on television and insist he never ran for president? his ability to be so shameless, i think that it s impossible for most people to parse. they assume that there must be something to his grandiose self-presentation because who could be a con man on that big of a scale? well yeah, go ahead. my question to you is the other thing you have to remember about this guy is he s not been a politician. running for electoral office is deeply humbling, not in the way like i m deeply humbled. you go and shake hands and beg people for your vote and you lose races. he s not gone through that. so huh reacts this last two weeks is a totally open question. i think it s pretty clear how he ll react. he ll keep doing those things that make him feel like it s somebody else s fault that this has happened and he ll keep doing those things that serve his self-interests. the clash of civilizations that really this represents is between self-interest and a greater interest. it s between me and we. thank god it looks like we is going to win because if it doesn t win, the planet isn t going to survive. and if trump i really believe that. i believe that we re at a turning point here. and there are concentric circles of we, the we of the planet, the we of a whole bunch of stuff. thank you both. the early returns from early voting. president obama s battleground states director on what early votes tell us about where this race stands two weeks out and why the odds democrats take back the senate are getting better after a quick minute break. on the roaoaagn [ front assi sounds [ musi on the roaoaagn [ girl lghs ] ike a band of gypsies weo down the highway [ beetle horn honk standardeature you gete foless than you expeed hurry and lease for just $199 pa month. would you lp me make art? each one of or journe keeps us youn hey, i have an id! we ll never get old. artygoe amazing! amazing! announcer: give your cardboard box another fe. woman: how do we protect them from $4 billion in new cuts to california schools? man: vote yes on proposition 55. woman: prop 55 doesn t raise taxes on anyone. man: not on working californians, not small businesses. no one. woman: instead, prop 55 simply maintains the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. man: so those who can most afford it continue paying their fair share. woman: .to prevent new education cuts. man: .and keep improving california s schools. woman: vote yes on prop 55 to help our children thrive. as donald trump s fortunes continue to slide, he s increasingly dragging the fortunes of senior republicans with him. the cook report saying that senate democrats are poised to pick up five to seven seats which would give them the majority. races in the toss-up column never split down the milled. one party tends to win the lion s share of that. there s not enough time for republicans to recover toss-up seats in the states where hillary clinton is leading. early voting is under way and trump won t be any help especially since his campaign doesn t have a ground game to speak of. between the dnc and state party operations campaign finance reports show democrats employ 5,138 staffers across 15 battleground states. trump s campaign, the republican national committee employ just 1400 staffers in 16 states. how well does that work for those who turn out for election day. early voting data offers some potential insight. according to the washington post, the end of saturday, staffers s s celebrated 39,148 people had vetted compared to 33,187 in 2012. no wonder katy perry held a rally for clinton in clark county on saturday literally gave a ride to some attendees to some of the early voting spots afterwards. in a one-two punch, president obama was in the same county the next day. if there s a single person on earth who knows this data inside and out, it s mitch stewart. currently a partner at 270 strategists. i want to start with this before we get to the early voting data. it s important for folks to understand when you were sitting at your perch in the 2012 campaign and folks were running the operation in clinton s campaign, you re not looking at the real clear politics or 548, you have internal data. what is that made of and what does it say and tell you that we on the inside don t know? you have a voter file that has all kinds of different data information on these specific individuals. their vote history, likely candidate preference. all kinds of things that you can look at. what you get then from the county auditor or from the secretary of state are individual level returns. so you know exactly who voted early, and many times you know how they voted early, either in person or by mail. then you can imagine that back to your existing database or voter file. and you know enough about those people you sort of profiled the them whether it s through their age, their education level, their ethnicity to be pretty confident who they re actually voting for based on the models you have. no, exactly right. you look at two separate data points. the first is what we call a preference candidate model. every voter will have a score from 100-1. out of 100 mitch stewarts, barack obama would get 1 vote. ten people would vote for barack obama. 90 for mitt romney. you look at that and then you also look at your turnout score. how likely are you to vote if somebody were not to remind you? you have a score of 100-1 on every single voter in that state. what you want to do with early vote, in most states, you want your supporters who have a middling turnout score, folks you aren t superconfident they will vote on election day unless you remind them. you want them to vote early. if somebody lass a high turnout score, irrespective if you remind them or not. you have the two scores. how likely am i to support the candidate that mitch stewart is supporting which would be barack obama you want people you are sure will vote for your candidate but in the middle of the propensity to turn out bau you can work on them in this sort of sustained fashion for this period and make sure they get in their own time and choosing. that s exactly right. not only do you measure your success from a field operation, you also measure your opponent s success and who are they getting to turn out early? are these getting out election day voters and just doing it early or are they reaching into the people who would be less likely to participate so they re growing their pie? so you look at both. you can do something like in 2012, say in a state like nevada, your campaign basically knew who won nevada before election day. you will have 80% of nevadans vote early. we had about a 12-point lead with 80% of the electorate in. the republicans would be literally like a 70-30 win on election day to make up for that early vote deficit. iowa is another example. just 40% voted early and we had about a ten-point lead. on election day republicans had almost an insurmountable gap to fill. you felt very, very comfortable with a couple of those states or you knew that this could be really, really close like florida. so it does provide you some assurance of what s going to happen on election day. but more importantly from a campaign perspective, it allows you to allocate resources more efficiently. so we stopped spending a ton of money in nevada once we realized that 80% of the electorate voted. we wind down the budget there and focus on a state like virginia where 90% of the state will vote on election day because there s very little vote happening there. we ll check in on elizabeth warren who is speaking moments ago. take a listen. she gets up every day no, i hope you heard donald trump in the debate when he said that he was smart not to pay any taxes. that s right. he is smart and all of you who pay taxes are dumb. everyone who pays taxes. to keep our roads and bridges working is dumb. everyone who pays taxes to support our world class military is dumb. everyone who pays taxes to support medical research and scientific research is dumb. dumb because donald trump doesn t plan to pay. he just plans to use all those things you paid for. what kind of man does that? a selfish little sleazeball. a man who will never be president of the united states. you bet. now, donald trump s been out there. he hasn t been hiding who he is. he s been out there from the very beginning. he s been out there and where has your senator, richard burr, been all this time? i wanted to look this up, make sure i got this right before i came here. richard burr said make no mistake, i am fully supportive of donald trump. no dancing around that one. so donald trump called latinos rapists and murderers and burr fully sports trump. trump called african-americans thugs and donald trump and burr fully supports donald trump. trump attacked a gold star family and burr fully supports donald trump. trump praised vladimir putin and compared himself to dictators. and burr fully supports donald trump. trump calls women fat pigs and bimbos and brags about sexually assaulting women. and richard burr is like a puppy on a leash sticking right there with donald trump. you know, if richard burr is just going to be donald trump s lapdog, then let him go off and do that, but the people of north carolina need a strong, independent voice to fight for the families of north carolina. and that is deborah ross. that was elizabeth warren speaking in north carolina just a few moments ago in support of deborah ross who is the democratic senate candidate challenging richard burr in a tightly contested race, yolking him to trump. as you just saw. spent many years as a nuclear missile launch officer. if the president gave the order, we had to launch the missile th. i prayed tt callwould ver come. self control m be all at keeps these misses frofiring. i wbr id= wbr16813 /> ulbomb the s[ be ]ut of ebe all i want to unpredictable. i lovear. the thoughonald trump with nuclear weapons scares me to death. it should scare everyone. i hillary clinton and i approve this msa. donald trump has spent his entire presidential wbr id= wbr17118 /> xap both obsessed with media coverage and harshly critical of the press. his rhetoric has grown ever harsher in recent weeks as his poll numbers collapsed. these people are among the most dishonest people in the world, the media. /b> they are the worst. they re trying to fix the election for crooked hillary. the media is entitled, condescending and even contemptuous of people who don t share certain elitist views. reporters are ritualistic booed when they re escorted into the trump rallies where they stand in pens and heckled while they cover them. this video shows the view from the press area. reporters describe did vitriol they face at trump rallies as increasingly hostile with people flipping middle fingers at them. a trump rally in cleveland buzzfeed reporter rosie gray reported that two men outside the press pen were quoted picking up after one of the men said the word lugenpresser. lugenpresser. you said it right. that s right. the word that man there was so excited to learn, lugenpresser means lying press in german. and it s the term the nazis used to demonize and the media and stir anti-jew hatred. while trump has traveled further into the fact-free swamp and a cocoon where he doesn t like anything that he says is false. it must be cured if the party is to be saved. we ll break down her diagnosis next. [baby talk] [child giggling] child: look, ma. no hands. children: i , j , k . [bicycle bell ring [indistinct chatter] [telephone rings] man: hello? [boing] [lghter] man: you may kiss the brid [applause] womanahh. [itit conversation] annouou: a ll life measured in seats srtwith the right on early on. car crashes are a leading killer of children 1 to 13. lea how to prevent deaths d injuries by using the rht car seat for yo child s age and size. is clean was le pow!o everything well? it added ts othe level of clean to . 6xaning my teeth are glowing. they are so white. 6x whitening á i actuallyeally like the 2 sps. step 1, cleans step 2, whitits. evy ti i used this together, it felt like leaving the dentisoffice. evy ti icrest hd.s together, 6x cleing , 6x whitengá the dentisoffice. i would switch to crest hd ov what i was using before. crest. healthy, beautil sm for life. they also claim that, in fact, hillary did in fact have a romantic relationship with vince foster. that, you know, that was pretty much of an open secret in our circles. lead story on hannity on fox news in primetime last night beamed out to million of viewers. a fixer for hillary clinton named jack rogan was recently featured as hillary s hit man in a national enquirer cover story claiming that clinton is a quote and i m quoting here a secret sex freak who paid fixers to set up elicit romps with both men and women. he s an editor of the weekly world news that printed news of hillary s alien abduction complete with photographic evidence. hannity gave rogan a primetime platform in spite of admitting the network could not verify his claims. rush limbaugh claimed the mainstream media would not ignore this if it was about trump. would you think that the national enquirer allegation of a guy saying he s procured women for hillary would even make its way well, of course not, but if the story was about trump, it would. this less than impeccable source makes the rounds of the right, limbaugh, drudge, hannity. championed by drudge and who today called into the limbaugh show to complain of what of all things, the mainstream media. hethese are vicious people. these are lying people. they re evil people, the press, the media. they re bad people. and nobody, nobody lies like they do. joining me now catherine rampell. the only way to save the republican party drain the right-wing media swmp. when trump gets the trouncing that erybody expects, the republican party will regroup and say, what s our autopsy this time around? if they re going to lay it at the feet of donald trump and say, you know, if we d only had a candidate with maybe the same package or policies but a little more empathic gloss, a little less boorish, less bigoted, hadn t been caught on tape saying he harassed women. that s wrong. the problem is not donald trump, the problem is that a large share of their base believes completely bonkers bigoted things. they ve been fed this again and again over year business the right wing what do you mean by bonkers bigoted things. birtherism, data trutherism. is that like large significant parts of fox viewers and conservatives and republicans that think that all the economic data is being juiced. the polls are skewed. even the fox news polls are skewed these days according to the republican base. beyond that, you know, that the weather numbers that we get are wrong. you know, that matt drudge had recently said that nobody should evacuate their homes when a hurricane was coming. right, a liberal media conspiracy. it was a conspiracy. the numbers were made up, the projections were made up to gin up fear about global warming. the idea is that there s this sort of context tu wal environment in which trump has flourished and the environment is more important than trump because the environment is the environment that s so self-contained and untethered from connections to external reality that you can have a candidate like this yes, basically the alt-right for years has created an alternate reality that has ultimately led to trump. you mean the right. the alt-right. i think i would say that there s a self-identified white nationalists of the alt-right. it s larger than that. i don t mean to paint all conservative leaning journalists with the same brush, those that are pedalling crazy conspiracy theories saying that obamaas not born in the united states, there sort of thing. that s part of the issue because there s tons of conservative journalists and writers and folks at fox. there are places that people have integrity. they re opinionated with an ideological ax to grind but who doesn t have one. phil klein has been reporting on obamacare, conservative, doesn t like obamacare, is embedded in the facts of what obamacare is, there s subject matter, knowledge, there s expertise, all these things. that s a very small group of these folks with a very small and my concern is that republican leadership has been playing along for years with these conspiracy theorizers. they re controlled by them. they re terrified of them. look what happened to eric cantor in his primary race to david bratt when basically right wing radio decided to take him on. so i think there are two issues going on here, why they haven t been willing to take on the crazies essentially. one is that they desperately need the imprimatur of these places because they re influential, handy is influential, drudge, whoever else, if they tick them off, they ll potentially lose those voters. to some extent the conspiracy theories have served their interests, in the short term. the popular mandate of the first black president, maybe that was useful to their cause in the near term, but in the long run it stoked a lot of racial resentment. the same thing with clinton voter fraud. it has been extremely useful. but in the pretext by which they passed actual pieces of legislation that made it harder for actual populations that actually vote for democrats in large numbers to vote. yes, and in the long run it set the stage for a presidential candidate to explain to his many voters that the election will be sto stolen from them. today a large share of republicans in particular believe that that election will be stolen. i think that it s absolutely the case and you re seeing it in its sort of death throes now. karl rove in 2012 saying it s not over. but then they just went back to the script. the big question for the right is do they go back to the script or is there some kind of reckoning and catherine rampell, thanks for joining me. proud of y, son. ! a manufacturer. well that s why i dug this out for you. it s your grdpappy s hammer and would have wanted y to have it. it meant aot to him. yes, ge makespowerful . bui lle writing the code yes, ge makespowerful . that will allow those machines to shai be changi the y the worlworks. (interrupting) you n t pick it up, can you? go ahead.hean t lift th. it s okay though! u re going to changethe wor. on a perfect c, then smash it into a tree. your insurance company raes your rates. maybe yoshld ve done more research on them. for drivers with accident forgiveness, libertmutual won t raise ur rates due to your first accident. liberty mutual insurance the bonus thing 1 thing 2 tonight without commercial break in the middle. where he or she stands on their own nominee for president. because there are distinct categories. those who have always backed donald trump like for instance senator jeff sessions. there are a select few who have maintained never trump like senator ben sask, charlie baker and a handful of congress members. there were those who decided relatively early to oppose, mark kirk, lindsey graham, susan collins and those who stood with trump until october through all the nasty statements, banning an entire religion, but finally threw in the towel after the infamous audio of trump bragging about grabbing women by the genitals. that list of late trump unendorsers includes john mccain, kelly ayotte and senate candidate joe heck of nevada. the supporters who heard trump on that bus bragging about sexual assault and defiantly proceeded to unendorse trump and call for him to step down only to then days or weeks later reendorse trump. this crowd has supported and opposed in disgust before reendorsing him, john thune, deb fischer and mike crapo. then there s pat toomey. who will be in charge of the nuclear codes. pat toomey has his own answer. and that s thing 2 tonight. see, for the entire general election, senator pat toomey has simply refused to say whether or not he ll support the gop nominee. he won t endorse nor will he rule out voting for donald trump. he won t give a simple direct answer one that every single american has to answer for themselves all of which made for an interesting debate last night. i know you have been waiting for this debate. in fact, i know you ve been waiting for this moment to say whether or not you will vote for the nominee of your party. so is it yea or nay? so, jim, unlike katie mcginty, i m not a hyperreflexive ideologue who thinks he has to give blind obedience to his party s nominee. so i guess that means you haven t been waiting for this debate? i have refused to endorse donald trump. katie mcginty says that s supporting donald trump. that doesn t make any sense. look, i m not going to badger you to say something that you re not going to say, but don t you think your constituents, the people of pennsylvania deserve to know if you re going to support the nominee of your party? i don t think my constituents care that much how one person is going to vote. they re going to make their own decision. something new has arrived. iquely designed fo the driven. intring the rst-ever infiniti qx30 0 ossover. visit your loc infiniti retailer today. infiniti. power the drive. naator: adventure start isn forest.re but theo kubo: i spy somethg ginbeetle: snow. kubo: no. beetle: snow cored trees. monkey: noing too with snow. rrator: headutside to discover incredible animals d beautiful plants th come together to create an unforgettable adventure. kubo: wow! narrmonkey: so gradon t even.d ones narrator: and explore a world of possibilities. narrmonkey: kubo: comen, this way.s narrator: visit discerthorest.org narrator: and explore a world of possibilities. tod the closes forest opark to you. u.s. service member. 34-year-old chief petty officer was attached to a navy s.e.a.l. team advising troops. he was in a vehicle and telling other members of his team he had spotted a roadside bomb when he was killed. he leaves behind a wife and a 7-year-old son. the stakes of this battle with both american and iraqi troops in harm s way are clear and progress has been steady in first week of the operation. iraq s prime minister says the offensive is going faster than planned. u.s. command says iraqi forces are making solid progress. but the attack on mosul is turning out to be a total disaster. we gave them months of notice. the u.s. is looking so dumb. vote trump and win again. that tweet prompting this response from secretary clinton. i was so appalled when donald trump tweeted that the new effort under way to push the terrorists out of the key city of mosul is already, and i quote him, a total disaster, and that our country is again a, quote, looking dumb. really? he s declaring defeat before the battle has even started? he s proving once again he is unqualified to be commander in chief of our military. we are right now as a nation in the midst of choosing someone to command the most powerful, most deadly military on earth. it is not just mosul or the fight against isis that will be in the new president s portfolio. right now the u.s. is, get this, conducting air strikes or missile strikes with special ops, troops the on the ground in at least six different countries. yemen, libya, somalia, afghanistan, iraq and syria. that is what the next president will inherit in our era of constant war. that s what s front of mind for military members and their families and it should be front of mind for every voter. ing 60,000 points from my chase ink card i boughtll the fruit. veggies. d herbs needed to create a pop-up pick-your-own juice bar in the middle of the cy, soow everyone s.s. we have me of e hest juice tn. see what the power opoin can do for your business. learn more at chase.com/ink see what the power opoin can do for your business. at you re at the y, top your game.pyou. at wk or at pl, yore unstoable. nothing can throw you off track. oh hey, e cute. niceoing man. things are going great for you. you ve ened a night out. good dris, good fends. yeahwe can go ahead d ca this goodight. wait, is that your car uh oh. not smar ye, i w that cing. say odbye to her. that will hurt your bank account. you re lookit around ten grand in fine gal fees, and creased insurance rates. i hope you lik eating frozen dinners. alone. les try this again. art move cause buzzed dring is drunk driving. miami this morning flanked by about 200 of his employees and tried to make the point that obamacare is a disaster for them. you can say all of my employees are having a tremendous problem with oba obamacare. you folks, this soot grogroup, another statement, this is horrible because of obamacare. except the vast majority is not on obamacare because their health care is provided by their employer donald trumps a resort. it seemed to catch a local camera operator by surprise. i d say 99% of our employees are insured through the hotel, through our insurance and maybe there s a few that are insured through obamacare. but very, very few. i would say and i haven t gone flu the records, but over 95%, without a doubt. a short time later on fox news trump was asked how his employees are hurt by obamacare. a moment ago at your event in florida we re watching it live here in new york, you said that it s costing jobs within your business itself. specifically how? obamacare, i must be honest with you, because it s so bad for the people and they can t afford it. i m at trump international doral in miami and we don t even use obamacare. we don t want it. joining me now political reporter for the new york times and msnbc contributor. the perfect moment to me for two reasons, one it displays donald trump s general level of sort of policy expertise. and number two, most americans still now in 2016 don t know what obamacare is, couldn t tell you what it is, or who it affects. it s become this kind of culture war issue or symbolic thing. can you put a creche in the public square? you know, and if you called it trumpcare, it would probably poll better or call it like powellcare, it s the social with president obama that drove down the approvals. obviously for some people the premiums are going up, it will be a hardship, but much more than the exchanges. the gaurns on coverage and parents plans. you re saying the bill itself, the law itself. you can stay on till you re 26 there s a whole lot of laws about pushing the cost down and innovation in medicare and medicaid delivery and health systems and integrated care and there s no lifetime maximums, yada, yada, but a tiny percentage of voters are in there. but if we re dealing with a candidate who had any grasp of public policy or the idea of how to talk to voters 13 days before an election, we might see someone who could frame could make that argument. very clearly. this is a horrible day for sort of obamacare and ergo hillary clinton. trump can t help but make everything either, a, about himself or he doesn t much knew, know about obama, the language of this man is deplorable. he didn t seize the opportunity to break it down to the public. everyone is there asking him questions about it. he could have walked them through it briefly. to me it remains so we were talking about there s 3% of the people who are roughly insured should get their insurance through the exchanges. 80% of them are subsidized, more or less, we re talking about 1% of people that get the full heft of this subsidy increase. there are 7 million people who are not on the exchanges but are buying plans, individual plans or small plans so they ll also see the premium hikes. this is the a small percentage of voters. this law as controversial as the day it passed is actually a thing out there in the world which i have to say continues to astound me. because i don t think that was the expectation. i think president obama was not great about selling it in the early years. that s one problem. they tried to rectify that. i do think that the reason the focus is on the exchanges is that the exchanges are the broken part. and the interests that want to kill obamacare would not want to focus on the parts that are very, very popular, such as you can t be denied coverage for a prior condition and if the conditions were such that you could focus on the popular part, it would probably be a different conversation. kind of weird that none of the democrats or the gop has managed to really steer that conversation in the presidential election. but here s what i want to ask you as a political scientist, i sort of feel in the long run that the sort of lines of politics and policy should converge, right? if there s something that there s a lot of scare tactics and it will destroy america and turn us into this socialist monster and the thing happens and it s not that but maybe has some broken parts but opinion would converge on it but instead a health reporter called it like roe v. wade, there s no convergence on the sense it s just as polarizing. people have their fixed views about these things despite the fact that it s an operating thing that you can empirically assess. that goes back to nick s point when obama did something that fdr couldn t do, something lbj couldn t do and william jefferson clinton couldn t do and he passed obamacare and put his name on it. he took the negative. they put his name on it. exactly. but he never framed this. we saw it with the stimulus package and the affordable care act. there s still so much confusion and misinformation from the very beginning we re still sort of seeing how this has played out eight years after the fact. there s fascinating science that shows people s perceptions of what it is and what it constitutes and who it helps are crazy skewed. people perceive the stimulus bill and obamacare to be aimed at black people that it s not true which accounts for the hatred and resistance to it. who benefits from it. he s done very few racially targeted policies. you know, he is under the for better or worse, but you know all what is it, all tides lift all boats? yes, so there s going to be certain segments of the population that are disaffected good or bad but this is not a racially targeted policy by any stretch of the imagination. but that doesn t mean the perception of it perception becomes reality. democrats thought this would be a real boon to them. bill clinton said pass it, people will love it. that will be a political boon. that s not been the case. it s not the kryptonite that republicans believe. republicans keep thinking obamacare is so terrible. you want to reject this. look at the demographics. not getting republicans rich. there are certain republicans who are destitute and they realize a small segment realize that this is actually what s been keeping them afloat. that s true. so many people are one injury away from yeah. but also like with people on the exchanges, the people
First wife, tammy, and lorry s first wife tam kids 16-year-old ryan and 7-year-old j.j. vallow. i lost everything, but more importantly we all lost tylee and jj. i was praying for a just verdict, and we got it. reporter: today in court like much of the two month long trial daybell sat emotionless. what happens next? the appeals process begins, and this can take years if not decades. reporter: the sentence marks the end of a grim investigation that gripped the nation starting in september 2019 when the two children were last seen alive. daybell s first wife tammy died a month later, just weeks before lori and chad married. months later, the newlyweds donling questions while in hawaii. the following summer the children s remains were found buried on chad s east idaho property. it has been a nightmare that you feel never ends.