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国泰君安:重申周期又到布局时


  
大势研判:弓满弦张,拉升在即。国君策略于6月27日提出“新的力量,拉升未完待续”,认为新力量无风险利率下行之下市场拉升未完,我们维持观点不变。分母端是我们看好后市的核心驱动:一方面随6月通胀拐点出现以及社融温和触底,宏观环境继续走向确定,风险评价下行驱动持续;而更为强劲的力量已来临,此前市场对于无风险利率下行的预期分歧较大,但全面降准信号、6月金融数据的超预期强劲正使分歧适度收敛,未来伴随通胀回落以及稳增长压力,无风险利率下行将成为行情的核心驱动。此外美债利率在通胀预期下行与容忍度提升、拜登财政刺激规模缩水和德尔塔病毒担忧等影响下回落至1.4%以下,在其指导意义本就逐渐弱化下未来难对分母造成过多扰动。分子端亦有助力:中报业绩预告预喜率高,二季度盈利有望延续高增 ....

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