国泰君安：重申

　　
大势研判：弓满弦张，拉升在即。国君策略于6月27日提出“新的力量，拉升未完待续”，认为新力量无风险利率下行之下市场拉升未完，我们维持观点不变。分母端是我们看好后市的核心驱动：一方面随6月通胀拐点出现以及社融温和触底，宏观环境继续走向确定，风险评价下行驱动持续；而更为强劲的力量已来临，此前市场对于无风险利率下行的预期分歧较大，但全面降准信号、6月金融数据的超预期强劲正使分歧适度收敛，未来伴随通胀回落以及稳增长压力，无风险利率下行将成为行情的核心驱动。此外美债利率在通胀预期下行与容忍度提升、拜登财政刺激规模缩水和德尔塔病毒担忧等影响下回落至1.4%以下，在其指导意义本就逐渐弱化下未来难对分母造成过多扰动。分子端亦有助力：中报业绩预告预喜率高，二季度盈利有望延续高增，博弈盈利将为市场注入新的活力。本周受证券违法活动监管政策、海外市场调整等影响上证指数震荡为主，往后看无风险利率下行驱动下拉升行情如箭在弦，当前正是买入赔率-胜率极佳时刻。
　　
信号释放，无风险利率下行进程开启。1）本次对冲式降准信号意义重于实际：一万亿资金释放主要用于MLF到期和弥补税期流动性缺口，银行体系流动性总量仍保持基本稳定。结合6月底央行超额续作与“流动性合理充裕不是一句空话”表态，本次全面降准是政策态度的再次确认，更具信号意义。2）背后核心仍是稳增长压力：本次降准亦为促进融资成本稳中有降支持实体经济，但当前融资成本已至低位，我们认为政策背后核心仍是稳增长压力。6月金融数据不止超预期强劲，社融同比增速11.0%与上月持平，M2同比增速连续两个月抬升，结构上隐含的增长压力亦值得我们注意，企业中长贷占比再次下降、居民中长贷回落，同时M2-M1剪刀差继续扩大。此外通胀数据亦表明矛盾正从“胀”移至“滞”，6月PPI如期见顶回落通胀预期缓和，而CPI持续下行、价格传导不畅下中下游成本压力仍在积蓄。3）无风险利率下行进程开启：信号已经释放，通胀与金融数据拐点已现，未来随通胀预期继续回落、盈利增长压力催化，无风险利率下行进程正在开启。
　　
　　

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