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Predictors whether a country will experience a civil war whether it s moving toward or away from democracy. joining me is barbara walter, professor of international affairs at the school of global policy and strategy at the university of california san diego and the author of how civil wars start and how to stop them . very timely you re here now. you serve as a cia advisory panel and monitor countries around the world. the u.s. is listed as a backsliding democracy. how close does that mean that we are in real life to descending into a civil war? so between 2017 and 2021 i served on this task force run by the u.s. government and it s called the political instability task force and our job is to come up with a predictive model that helped the government predict where around the world ....
All over the world. and between 2017 and 2021, i was asked to serve on a task force run by the u.s. government called the political instability task force. and our job was to come up with a predictive model of where around the world political instability and violence could break out. we were not allowed to look at the united states, we never talked about the united states, we were studying asia and central asia, and africa, in the middle east. and we included in the model every possible variable we caught thought could matter. poverty, ethnic diversity, incoming couldn t equality, over 30 of them. and only two factors came out highly predictive. the first was this and knock receive area bowl, partial democracies are three times more likely to experience political violence and civil war than full democracies. and the second factor which is more troubling, it is a knock or see isn t really enough. you need a knock receipt ....
Criticizing republican parties knowing they can come knock on my door. and yet, it does seem clear there has been a real fall back in democratic health. how to think about that in a rigorous way? well, i ll tell you why it s really important to understand anocracy. i ve studied civil wars and political violence for 30 years all over the world. and between 2017 and 2021, i was asked to serve on a task force run by the u.s. government called the political instability task force. and our job was to come up with a predictive model of where around the world political instability and violence could break out. we were not allowed to look at the united states, we never talked about the united states, we were studying asia, and central asia, and africa, and the middle east. and we included in the model every possible variable we thought could matter. poverty, ethnic diversity, income inequality, over 30 of them. and only two factors came out highly predictive. the first was this anocracy vari ....
Over the last five years, i have been watching what s happening here in my own country, and one of the things that i have seen is that these same factors are emerging here in the united states, and they re emerging at a surprisingly fast rate. that s the reason why i wrote this book. what factors are you talking about. what specifically do you look at. mozambique, you had a very violent, incredibly violent, what are the parallels? yeah, so we don t look at individual cases. for four years, since 2017, i was on a task force run by the u.s. government called the political instability task force. and one of our jobs was to come up with a predictive model of where around the world, not here in the united states, where across the globe political instability and political violence was likely to break out. and we put in 56 different factors from poverty to income ....
what factors are you talking about. what specifically do you look at. mozambique, you had a very violent, incredibly violent, what are the parallels? yeah, so we don t look at individual cases. for four years, since 2017, i was on a task force run by the u.s. government called the political instability task force. and one of our jobs was to come up with a predictive model of where around the world, not here in the united states, where across the globe political instability and political violence was likely to break out. and we put in 56 different factors from poverty to income inequality, all the things we could possibly think of that might lead a country down the path towards war. and to our surprise, two factors were by far the most important, the first was what we called anocracy, partial democracy, neither fully democratic or ....