all over the world. and between 2017 and 2021, i was asked to serve on a task force run by the u.s. government called the political instability task force. and our job was to come up with a predictive model of where around the world political instability and violence could break out. we were not allowed to look at the united states, we never talked about the united states, we were studying asia and central asia, and africa, in the middle east. and we included in the model every possible variable we caught thought could matter. poverty, ethnic diversity, incoming couldn't equality, over 30 of them. and only two factors came out highly predictive. the first was this and knock receive area bowl, partial democracies are three times more likely to experience political violence and civil war than full democracies. and the second factor which is more troubling, it is a knock or see isn't really enough. you need a knock receipt