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Written by Steven HansenThe New York Fed's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined this past week. This index's trend is improving based on the 13-week rolling average.
The New York Fed's Weekly Leading Index (WLI) declined this past week. This index's trend is improving based on the 13-week rolling average. Analyst Opinion of the Weekly Leading Index This data set should be considered a high-frequency coincident indicator on a par with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index produced by the Philly Fed - and both show conditions caused by the coronavirus pandemic are already worse than the Great Recession. However, the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index is improving whilst the WLI is still declining. Logic would say with the partial ...
The year-over-year rate of growth of the majority of coincident indices improved or was little changed relative to last month - but all of the indices are in expansion. It should be obvious the economy entered a recession in March 2020 but likely exited in May or June 2020. Normally a recession ends when the economy starts improving.
The year-over-year rate of growth of the majority of coincident indices improved or was little changed relative to last month - but only half of the indices are in expansion. It should be obvious the economy entered a recession in March 2020 but likely exited in May or June 2020. Normally a recession ends when the economy starts improving. Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision - and this month they are generally showing improved growth. Out of this group of coincide...
Bird Song of the Day Really does sound like a bell! * * * #COVID19 At reader request, I’ve added this daily chart from 91-DIVOC. The data is the Johns Hopkins CSSE data. Here is the site. I feel I’m engaging in a macabre form of tape-watching. The Northeast jump looks like enormous data error; the CDC data doesn’t show it, so it’s down to Johns Hopkins of DIVOC-19; I’ve written the maintainer. UPDATE No response from the maintainer. I think I’ll try the telephone. (Here are the data status updates.) “The number of Americans getting vaccinated is on the decline” [ABC]. “Whil...