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The US jobs market is already generating inflation


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Global stockmarkets fell sharply early this week, with concern over US inflation. Technology shares were hit particularly hard: the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index has fallen by 5% since 1 May. 
Investors’ US inflation expectations are at a 15-year high, says Naomi Rovnick in the Financial Times. The five-year break-even rate (the difference between the yield on inflation-linked five-year Treasuries and nominal five-year bonds) shows that investors expect average inflation of 2.73% over the next five years, the highest this figure has been since 2006. Spiking inflation could force the US Federal Reserve to tighten monetary policy sooner than expected. That would mean less liquidity sloshing around the market, which is negative for stock prices.  ....

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The Capital Letter: Biden's Vaccine Blunder


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President Joe Biden speaks as he tours a Pfizer manufacturing plant producing the coronavirus vaccine in Kalamazoo, Mich., February 19, 2021.
(Tom Brenner
/Reuters)
The week of May 3: waiving the COVID-19 vaccines’ intellectual-property protections, disappointing jobs numbers, and much, much more.
Just in case its tax plans were not evidence enough that the Biden administration has little understanding of the value of incentives, its proposal that intellectual-property protections should be waived in the case of COVID-19 vaccines bolstered the message that no economically productive deed should go unpunished.
The
New York Timesprovided some background:
The United States had been a major holdout at the World Trade Organization over a proposal to suspend some of the world economic body’s intellectual property protections, which could allow drugmakers across the globe access to the closely guarded ....

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Another Twist of the Knife: Introducing a New Death Tax


Another Twist of the Knife: Introducing a New Death Tax
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May 1, 2021, 10:29 AM·28 min read
The devil is in the details, and while, when it comes to the Biden tax plan, Old Nick is not just lurking in the small print, one particular technical-sounding change proposed by the president is rightly attracting some attention: that is the plan to scrap the long-standing principle that if someone inherits an asset, his or her basis cost in that asset for capital-gains-tax purposes is not the price that the deceased may have paid for it (or its value when it came into the deceased’s ownership) but its market value at the time of the deceased’s death, a “break” that can be justified on grounds of basic fairness. That’s the case for various reasons, but one of the most obvious is that estate tax may well, in the case of the wealthiest, also be payable on what is left after the capital-gains tax has been paid. ....

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Semiconductors will go from famine to feast


Semiconductors will go from famine to feast
A global shortage of semiconductors has collided with an unprecedented surge in demand. But the chip industry has always been highly cyclical.
23 Apr 2021
A global shortage of semiconductors is affecting everything from smartphone sales to car manufacturing. Disruption caused by Covid-19 has collided with an unprecedented surge in demand for electronics, says Wallace Witkowski for MarketWatch. Research firm IDC reports that PC sale volumes are expected to advance by 18% this year. Global shipments could hit 357.4 million computers, beating the record set in 2011. 
Car makers have been particularly badly hit by the shortages; many cancelled chip orders when the pandemic hit, only to be surprised by the strength of demand for new vehicles. The shortage means it’s a good time to be a chip maker. The PHLX Semiconductor Index has gained 92% in a year. Building a new manufacturing plant can take two years and costs several ....

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Capital Letter: Climate & Central Banks: Regulators Doing What They Shouldn't


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European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde addresses an event to launch the private finance agenda of the 2020 United Nations Climate Change Conference in London, England, February 27, 2020.
(Tolga Akmen/Pool via Reuters)
I felt spoiled for choice when it came to a topic with which to preface this week’s Capital Letter. Dogecoin went quite a long way toward the moon, the U.N.’s secretary-general has pushed for a “solidarity” or wealth tax, and digging further into the details of the administration’s planned new corporate-tax regime produced yet more nasty surprises.
That said, I think that it’s worth continuing to watch how the regulatory state continues to push ahead with its climate agenda in a way that bypasses the normal democratic process and is still not subject to enough scrutiny. ....

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