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The Cost of the Coup: Myanmar Edges Toward State Collapse


What’s new? The 1 February coup has plunged Myanmar into political, social and economic turmoil. Mass protests, public- and private-sector worker strikes, and the security forces’ brutal violence against the population, including the killing of at least 158 unarmed civilians on 27 March, are pushing the country toward collapse.
Why does it matter? Neither the military regime nor the popular uprising is likely to prevail soon. Nor is either likely to back down. The crisis is set to deepen, with the prospects of greater bloodshed, economic damage, humanitarian emergency and refugee flight to neighbouring countries growing in coming months.
What should be done? Getting the regime to change course will be an uphill struggle. Still, foreign actors should not recognise the junta; they should impose arms embargoes and targeted sanctions on the military and its interests. Asian and Western powers should continue working together. Donors should plan for significant humani ....

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Can Myanmar's Protesters Win? – The Diplomat


Can Myanmar’s Protesters Win?
They are up against a ruthless, entrenched military. But history tells us not to underestimate the power of the people.
April 01, 2021
An anti-coup protester holds a smoke bomb behind makeshift barricade, as the protesters confront police in Yangon, Myanmar Sunday, March 28, 2021.
Credit: AP Photo
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Nobody – least of all the Tatmadaw, Myanmar’s military – could have imagined that the February coup in Myanmar would trigger such a flood of outrage, mass civil disobedience, and the forging of a multi-ethnic alliance across the nation.
Most Myanmar experts from the region’s plethora of think tanks would have scoffed at the suggestion that even two months after the coup, Myanmar’s military would not have been able to crush the revolt. ....

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