if you take a look at revenue, coming in better than estimated, over $1 billion. looking for a little bit shy of $1 billion. headline numbers, upping their guidance for the first quarter. the estimate was for about 800 aboutmillion -- for $862.9 million. beating by about $148 million. is down by about 0.1% in premarket. let's take a look at the broader market. on the one hand, you have warnings from jp morgan on risk. citigroup also calling potentially for complacency. s&p futures still grinding their way higher, up 0.4%. we did see another record close yesterday for the s&p. global stocks also shooting higher. euro-dollar unchanged, despite the fact that german factory orders disappointed, raising questions about the recovery in europe. you are seeing selling in the bond market in europe. in the u.s., yield down by about one basis point. crude taking higher as well. maybe we'll get some opec support coming down the pipeline. lots of things happening in the market today. let's get you caught up for global exchange. we will bring you market moving news from all around the world. our bloomberg voices are on the ground with all this morning's top stories. we begin in asia. countries around the world are placing more restrictions on travelers from china to try and contain the coronavirus out. the global -- coronavirus outbreak. the global toll rising to over 28,000 cases. joining us from hong kong is rishaad salamat. walk us through the latest. rishaad: what we have is 563 deaths. the death toll, unfortunately, is likely to rise. beijing coming out against countries which have posted travel restrictions, saying it is unnecessary. it is something the who also echoed, saying there's no need to cancel flights as many airlines have done. yum china is shuttering about 1/3 of its stores around the country, at the same time saying its delivery side is holding up. contactlessoduced payment to avoid contact with members of staff. this coming on the back of other companies as well. nike saying it was shuttering about half of stores in china, and saying it has significant footfall decrease in the ones which were open. at tesla, we got reports of tesla and honda also closing some of their dealerships here. this also comes on the back of the other story we did have, which was showing we had a 20% fall in oil consumption in china. that andng heed of looking at an output cut to shore up prices. we've also had a victim of m&a activity here. -- cowen taking off its bid for crown resorts. they are not so sure of the longevity of such a deal. that's currently where we are on the ground. back to you in new york. thank you. staying in asia, china says it will have tariffs on about $75 billion of u.s. imports starting february 14. with phase oneg moves by washington. joining us is tom mackenzie. what does this actually apply to? imports of u.s. products into the chinese markets, ranging from oil to soybean to products like pork, beef and chicken. from 10%ill be reduced to 5%, or from 5% to 2.5%. it dovetails with an expected reduction in duties by the u.s. on february 14, part of this phase i trade deal. there have been questions around china as it deals with the coronavirus and the economic impact of that, whether it not it would be able to make the purchase agreements that it came to in that phase i deal. $200 billion worth of u.s. products over the next few years, on top of the baseline imports. that is a question that remains. they are saying that the signal for the ministry of finance is that they will reduce these as to the, and that says u.s. that we are still sticking to the trade deal even if we may not be able to make these large purchases at this particular time. we remain committed to the phase i trade deal. you see that optimism in the chinese currency today and more broadly in the equity space as well. alix: thank you very much. now we head to germany, where the worst may not be over for europe's largest economy. 2.1%, thers dropped steepest in almost a year. christine lagarde spoke to parliament, saying the domestic economy remains resilient, and shouldn't be blamed for negative rates. dillowarde: interest-rate environment has significantly reduced the scope for the ecb and other central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy in the face of an economic downturn. going alix: downturn. joining me from frankfurt is bloomberg's paul gordon. reaction is stronger than the ecb came out with last month and stronger than mario draghi came out with. there's rising concern among some policymakers and among the public that negative interest rates and bond purchases are causing financial stability ricks, squeezing profit margins to the point where they can't do much anymore, and also pushing up asset prices. real estate is particular burden . that is one concern. really, central banks don't have the tools available, and governments are not delivering. lagarde said it is time for governments to have the fiscal space to support the economy. the message is that this is the next downturn we are talking about, not imminent threats, but there are imminent threats. he talked about german factory orders for december, showing the worst in over a year in germany. the coronavirus means a threat to the local economy, and the european economy, if it is stable, it is stable at a low growth level, so those concerns remain. alix: now we turn to oil, where opec's and its allies go into a third day of talks in vienna. they recommended cutting output to offset demand effects from the coronavirus. joining us is annmarie hordern. i've heard numbers from one million barrels a day all the way down to 500,000. what are you hearing? annmarie: this meeting dragged on for three days. they are suggesting 600,000 barrels a day. that's what would be needed to offset the hit to demand from the coronavirus, but there is a caveat to this. russian energy alexander novak reiterated that russia still needs more time to assess the hit on demand, so it does seem like there's a bit of a standoff between saudi arabia and russia. we've also heard a lot of proposals on potentially moving the march meeting to february, but we have no date yet. within this, i think it just comes down to the price. saudi arabia needs something closer to $80 a barrel, while president putin could deal his budget on $40 a barrel. we have seen the collapse of brent since the coronavirus outbreak. we have seen the market move into containment. this is going to worry the gulf producers much more than russia. alix: and russia doesn't have saudi aramco to deal with as well. thank you very much. we end with the impeachment trial in the u.s. the senate voting to acquit president trump on charges he abused his power and obstructed congress. joining us from new hampshire is kevin cirilli. did we learn anything on this boat? that's on this vote -- on this vote? kevin: we did learn potentially of new divides in the publican party. mitt romney essentially laying down a gauntlet of sorts in a john mccain-like movement of opposition against president trump within the party. democrats, joe mansion and -- joe manchin in west virginia and doug jones and alabama, also voting to convict. tomorrow is less next debate before tuesday nights primary in new hampshire. still coming out of iowa, it is unclear who won. a statistical tie of sorts between south bend mayor pete buttigieg, just ahead of senator bernie sanders, followed by elizabeth warren and joe biden. all of the action is here in downtown mess test -- in downtown manchester. alix: thank you so much. staggering results from iowa. later today, we bring you president trump's remarks from the white house at 12:00 p.m. eastern time. one more story we are watching today is qualcomm and its efforts to lower expectations. the chipmaker ties it success with the rollout of the new 5g network, but it says the payoff for smartphones using 5g is actually going to take longer than expected. qualcomm says revenue will be little changed for the quarter that ends in june. it couldbe huge, but take a while, and it is expensive, severe whole industry is dealing with that structural transition. coming up, more on your morning trade and analysis of the markets in today's first take. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: now time for bloomberg first take, where we give you the news, you get the trade and analysis of the markets. joining me is damian sassower, hunt,cglone, and sarah alpine woods portfolio manager. who is going to talk the fastest among the four of us? [laughter] alix: we are getting calls now ,rom equity analysts jp morgan citigroup, about taking more risk off. what do you do want to day like today? damian: new issuance had its best month in january. you can say there was a little bit of reaching ahead of itself. i think today, what you've got to look at is what christine lagarde said overnight. stimulus, they've basically thrown in the towel on monetary stimulus. euro-dollar is trying to break through. today is probably your day to see it. strong dollar, bad for commodities, but the things that struck me about what you just said work tesla -- just said were tesla and bitcoin. those are the most significant, disruptive technologies and benchmarks in the world. it going is probably a consolidated gold market. i have to transition to what i think is the biggest fear i have. even though we have record highs in s&p 500, gold is up about the same 10%. we are seeing a lot of strength in that commodity that is going up for a good reason. sarah: i think we are still not sure how all of this is going to play out on the economy for what is going on in china right now. you've got the fed and other central banks at your back, and that continues to be the story. but can monetary policy help supply chain disruption? can monetary policy help all of these things? right now, bad news is good news, good news is bad news for the stock market. i think people are feeling like clearly, the market is going higher today. we are making new highs. unconcerned that in the backdrop , some of these things are not being taken into account yet because we are making the assumption that there's not going to be much disruption. damian: what is interesting is the compression between value and growth. yesterday, you saw a bit of a reversal of that. that spread is compressed on the unity basis. you are trying to see people pass from the faang's to some of the other players. good luck with that. definitely, we are in store for a bit of a pullback here. alix: but if we are looking at energy and financial, the value of debt outperforming yesterday, and you have technology in real estate on the downside, there is still a bid in gold and you are pricing two cuts from the fed in 2020. is that what we are seeing, central banks come to the rescue , and ignoring what christine lagarde said? damian: absolutely. we have seen defective rate cuts. russia is tomorrow. we are seeing a lot of central bank stimulus out of emerging markets. i don't disagree with the concept, but i've got to applaud christine lagarde for basically throwing in the towel on stimulus. it is just like robert kaplan. there is a cost to all of the stimulus, and we just don't see it yet. mike: the thing i fear from a commodity standpoint is it is going in the direction of the path of least resistance. look at natural gas today. you have this force majeure with it is down today. you've got things like copper and crude oil that just made multiyear lows. we had a good reason to go down, but the force is still deflationary trends. the stock market is great, but how long does that last? alix: what do you do? what do you buy? sarah: you look for stories where underneath, you have some underpinning of valuation that you feel comfortable with, which is very difficult to find. you see these pockets were stocks get hit hard on small things. qualcomm is down this morning. that doesn't look so bad. so you can say this is a bit of a problem, but i've got dividend yield and other stuff going on. we are trying to stay away from things that are so highly valued that everything has to continue to go right, but those stocks continue to work. there's a bit of attention between that, so you think maybe i will take some of this and some of that so there is underpinning, but you have to have some kind of combination because a lot of these big cap stocks have continued to be the driver. low andyou buy mid-caps, all this stuff that the market is basically disregarded. to your point, it is difficult to find a haven in this market. i think that is driving the dollar strength up. onseti can't believe your and you haven't brought up negative real yields in emerging markets. isn't that a really big deal in a world where try and find carry because you have no pickup anywhere? damian: we have it some places. mexico. if you look at it, it's come back down. there will be a fee to park elsie money with them. it used to that. as yields get lower, wait till .omes to the u.s. that is where the world is headed. sarah: this is the problem of low and negative rates globally. you have to put your money somewhere. if i am putting it in something with negative yield or if i am being charged to hold cash, i have to do something. this is part of what is happening with gold. betterd looks a little than negative. if i have any fear about that's part of what is driving that change and why that is up along with other things. mike: that is part of that win-win in gold. what is it going to take to stop? i don't know yet, so i am -- i'm looking catalyst waiting for it. deflation and lower currencies across the board make people think this isn't such a bad place to be, so right now, we are having more of a deflationary problem. that's what everyone has been struggling with. where: except in china, food prices and everything are spiking on the cv. but it means that the pboc may be a little hamstrung. they can't just in class -- they can't just slash rates. guy's, things a lot. i think you talked the slowest, actually, which is weird. [laughter] halpin woodsunt of is sticking with us. browse all the charts we used at gtv . this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." toyota raising its forecast for the full year after the japanese automaker reported quarterly profit that beat estimates. controlfocus on cost helping the company but a recent trend in auto earnings. boosting shareholder returns after the french bank warned investors not to expect much in the way of revenue growth, also suggesting it's made its way to keep profit ability targets. demand,rning of weaker and about problems with steel demand. year, economic stimulus may be needed. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. there's more fallout in the commodity market from the coronavirus outbreak. china's biggest buyer of liquefied natural gas said it will not honor the contract. the company took a dramatic step known as force majeure. typically, force majeure is when a seller can deliver the supply because of some sort of jim littell disruption, but the clearing force majeure because you can't buy it is a totally different story, and really quite unheard of. china is the world's most dominant consumer of raw materials, and the virus has really hurt supply chains. you can see lng there. china's growth in that area is really picking up. in fact, the goldman sachs out with a note today that says if lng is pushed off the market and you hit. it's capacity, that is going to drag down global lng prices with broad revocations. coming up, twitter jumping in premarket after beating on revenue and user growth in the first quarter -- in the fourth quarter. this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." s&p continuing to claw its way higher after rising for the third day yesterday and closing at a record, up by your .4%. the dax outperforming in europe despite factory orders for december missed. stronger dollar story. that's all you really need to know in the currency market. in terms of a safety bid, coming unmount here. german 10 year yield seeing a little but of selling earlier in the session. a little bit of buying in the long end in the treasury market. crude up by about 1%. how much will opec cut? that is the question the oil market is trying to pay attention to. let's turn to tech. twitter stock popping in premarket trading. joining me on the phone from san francisco, mark mahaney, rbc capital markets. sarah hunt of alpine woods is with me as well. what was your biggest take away from twitter? user growth is stronger than we have seen in a while, and second, there's been a concern on the street that this company is under invested, that they've been over earning. we saw that come through when they reported and talked about weak ad product development in the last quarter. this company has now said they are going to accelerate their expense growth going into this year of 20%. it is kind of the bad news the market wanted to hear. they wanted to hear that they are willing to amp up investments. now that the coast is clear, the stock and go up. alix: what is the next catalyst that we see the fruit of that investment pay off in the bottom line? big years should be a for advertising because of the u.s. presidential election, although twitter won't participate in that, but it should participate in terms of increased engagement. there's also olympics advertising. we should see accelerating or robust ad revenue growth from twitter throughout the year without any of the miscues and screw ups they had in 2019, if if their r&d develop and's and techno violence are elementsl -- and tech are successful -- and tech developments are successful. alix: how do you buy tech? amazon jump as it reported earnings. it have a little bit of a flat line. i think there are times when you can look at things and go, ok, this is now lagging the group. i can take a look at this. i'm expecting things to get higher. you will continue to see all of this engagement in adding more things in 5g and adding more in web services and hosting services globally. i think there are places you can see the growth, and you sort of look to buy an entry point. you have to buy them, but it is hard when they've had big runs to say that i will jump in here. companies, which tech have more room on a valuation basis, where maybe all the good news isn't yet priced in? mark: i like the way your other guests said that. we look for high quality assets of dislocated stocks. at the end of 2019, that was facebook. i've been trying to have people think about a different asset than faang. i would say faangu. put uber in there. a lot of negative sentiment, yet they are at an inflection point where losses will come down, and as the ridesharing growth rates are very sustainable. uber is our top pick in the group. as advertising plays, we continue to like google and facebook as long-term buys, and amazon and alphabet as well. if they can sustain 20% bookings growth in the ridesharing business, 20% take rate, and 20% ebita margins, it will just be a reminder that that is a good business. in the meantime, they can show that they can bring overall losses down and continue on this ebitapath towards break even. you put that together, we think the stock goes higher. ton if the stock were not reach highest asportation this quarter, i think the story is going to play out better, fundamentals are going to improve, and the stock being beaten up in the last half of last year, i think the entry point is still very attractive. alix: how do you feel about unicorns? sarah: that's a tough question. to the degree that those of us who have been around a while in markets say that in some cases, you get this great surge ahead of time and then everybody expects all these things. it is possible that the issue with the ipo would have been less of a problem because you had so much of a build up so much expectation, and some new people putting money into it earlier that you had to get a valuation that was sort of challenging, to say the least. i think to the extent that some of the companies waited a long time to go public, it's made it harder to invest in them when they first come out and do an ipo. alix: totally right. mark mahaney, thank you so much. sarah hunt of alpine woods will be sticking with me. later today, we will talk to twitter's cfo. now to get an update on headlines outside the business world, viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: president trump declaring victory after he was acquitted in his impeachment trial. the vote was almost entirely along party lines in the u.s. senate. mitt romney, though, i with his republican colleagues, voting guilty -- though, breaking with his republican colleagues, voting guilty on one of the impeachment charges. countries around the world taking more steps to contain the coronavirus outbreak. india the latest to post restrictions on travelers from china. it says existing visas are no longer valid for any foreigners from the mainland. the death toll in china is over 500 63. more than 28,000 cases are confirmed. staying with coronavirus, opec and allies are trying to figure out how to deal with the drop in demand caused by this virus. technicalion's experts recommend cutting production by 600,000 barrels a day. russia has asked for more time before it sounds onto this idea. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i'm viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg. alix: thanks so much. for more on oil and energy, we are joined by adam waterous, waterous energy fund ceo. what are energy is a deep value special investor in american oil and gas -- waterous energy fund is a deep value special investor in american oil and gas. thank you for joining. it seems like it is an opposite ofstion to tech, but kind similar. you really want to own energy, and you can't own energy at all. how is it different in the public versus private markets? adam: it's not. only followsarket but what'smarket, important to understand is that historically, people invest in the oil and gas business thinking it's a cyclical opportunity. prices go up, prices go down. buy in the dip. that, unfortunately, over the last five years, has been a losing strategy. people misinterpreted a structural change for a typical issue. over time,being investors have learned that if in 2009in the dip, say been a goodt's strategy. this time, it didn't work out that well. the reason being there had been a structural change in the industry. to understand that, you really have to kind of go back a long time, roughly 50 years. if you look at the north american oil market, you can basically have a 40 year period and a 10 year period. the 40 year started in 1970. --, oil production at and pete at about -- and peaked at about 5 million barrels a day. what that did is it created a number of dynamics in the andstry that both investors operating companies focus on. had is a period where you an age of scarcity. it was a sunset industry. very hard to find oil. people thought it would be harder and harder to find. focusil and gas companies on heavily as growth. there is a very robust m&a cycle . his anat led to investing thesis driven by capital gains. so wereally hard to find, are going to reinvest our cash flow into the ground and build up our companies. now it is sort of the bargain that investors have. it is basically 40 years of the industry being drilling location poor. now we have all this new technology. u.s. oil production started increasing in 2009, from 5 million barrels a day to around 13 million barrels a day. fantastic technology, quite incredible. what that did is it disrupted the historic dynamics of the business. companies don't want to focus very much on growth, so they continue to reinvest the cash flow in the business. what happened is m&a demand collapsed. the reason it collapsed is because, for the first time essentially ever, companies preferred to drill for locations, drill reserves rather than by it. what that did is it disrupted the investing model because they said, well, we are going to reinvest our cash flow as a company, but there was no liquidity. what that's led to is a lot of pain in the investment market. sarah: on top of all of that, you've got now a big concern about not wanting to be invested in oil as investors. the whole esg movement, the common nation of we are going to change transportation from gas to electric. i think you put those two things together and it made it very difficult for people to feel comfortable in a way that said, ok, i know this is going to change. therefore, you've got a lot of assets i think are being under loved and underappreciated, and it is a great time to be a private investor. alix: can you buy energy stocks right now? can buy some of them for dividend yields, but in terms of long-term investment where you are looking for capital appreciation, right now the zeitgeist is not on your side. and i'm an energy person, so for me that is very difficult. there are going to be changes in technology, but they are not so fast that we don't need what we currently have. but that is not the way people are looking at investing. people are divesting because they want to say our portfolio doesn't have any of x, y, or z. alix: where are the opportunities in the private market? where you find that value without getting into a value trap? a great question. it goes to the underlying earning power of the assets. how fast u.s. oil production increased over the last 10 years, 5 million to 13 million euros a day, you would think there's a lot of great -- 13 million barrels a day, you would think there's a lot of great assets to buy. there's a lot of money wasted in buying these assets. 2013, when oil prices were around $100, the industry was earning its cost of 8% to 10%.cking up in the last five to six years, the industry has just been burning money. alix: literally burning money. [laughter] sarah: and banks are willing to give them a ton of money. everyone was chasing production growth without realizing that you are creating a supply issue, and there was no discipline on the capital side for people to say you can't have that capital. you need to get the capital discipline back as accommodation of those things. adam: i totally agree. yearse say, the last five in the industry has gone through what we say the five sages of greece -- the five stages of grief. essentially, what happened is the market misperceived what was going on when m&a collapsed. they thought it was just driven by lower commodity prices as opposed to a structural change. to 2016,ok at 2014 they invested in assets that should not have been attracting capital. then what happens in 2017, you i've doubledause or tripled my production in my stock is still down. very frustrated. 2018, the bargaining stage was my stock is really down. i'm now going to live within cash flow. company stocks still don't recover. in 2019, they said i am now entering into the depression state. i am going to focus on free cash flow. that still didn't recover. the good news is ultimately, we think acceptance is equity payouts. if you are going to invest in the oil and gas business, because m&a is dead, you've got to divvy out your investment over some reasonable period of time. it hasn't been that way in over 50 years. alix: we have to leave it there, but we will get you back for more. adam waterous of waterous energy fund, ceo. sarah hunt, good to have you as well. program, arethe investors spooked by casper? the mattress company pricing at the lower end of its range. if you have a terminal, check out tv . you can check out our charts and graphics, interact with us directly. scroll through and check it out. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: we turn to wall street beat to cover three things wall street is buzzing about this morning. skepticismasper after a funding round last year. it's ipo is valued at less than half of that. and investors expect muted revenue growth. leaves another tech goldman, making it the third departure at the unit in a matter of days. linning me now is bloomberg's sonali basak. let's start with casper. what did you learn about the pricing? sonali: they were bringing down the price to $12. that makes them half their private market valuation. we will speaking -- we were speaking to eric hirsch of hamilton lane. he was saying that we don't want these sky high valuations. some of these companies that are not making money are not worth this much. alix: that raises the question, how do they exit? if the private market doesn't want it anymore, and the public market doesn't want it, what do they do? sonali: they want to see more companies that has multiple exit strategies, more potential sales. they have been saying -- some have been saying that they should have sold a long time ago. than $100ed more billion. how did they trade today? if they keep up at a decent level, i think it could be or sustainable, as a public company, but let's see how they do. alix: let's get the second-story story, and that is socgen. they had an earnings beat. we spoke to the ceo. here's what he had to say about the business. >> i think it is tough to say we've met all our objectives, whether it was regarding commercial activity or financial governance. our main priority. i think we exceeded our target. we ended the year with 12.7%. i think it was very positive. it will give confidence. alix: biggest take away? sonali: they fell short of that return on tangible equity target. he gave a good outlook. we can hold him to that. the investment bank revenue really took off at the end of last year. that was a good sign. , buty a little below bnp generally held up. alix: the third story we are watching his goldman has its third elite guy leaving from the electronic trading unit. what's up? sonali: third guy and one woman. a lot of people leaving. as a partner just a couple of years ago, which is rare to come in at such a high level. another exit this week that i thought was very interesting was someone who, just a week ago, was presenting at the investor day. the other person, the woman i was talking about, who is a very interesting person, she had about $2 billion in principal investments she was also overseeing. a lot of these tech firms goldman invested in early on, she was a big part of that push. so we have a range of executives leaving here, and that is above and beyond what we saw last year , marty chavez leaving as well. alix: i wonder what firm they will all start together? sonali basak, things a lot. we will look at bernie made off's plea for ape -- at bernie 's pleaf -- bernie madoff for a passionate release. he says he suffers from kidney cancer and another terminal ailment. coming up, the long end of a long-term relationship, the yuan in the u.s.-china guilt spread. if you are jumping into your -- u.s.-china yield spread. if you are jumping into your car, tune into bloomberg radio on sirius xm channel 119 and on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: time now for trader's take. joining me is damian sassower. you are looking at the relationship between the one and credit spreads -- the yuan and credit spreads. damian: the relationship has been a very long-term, strong correlation. that broke down last year. obviously, trade had something to do with it, but also the fact that the fed started cutting rates again. you saw that rate differential blowback up. it was going to break through zero, where u.s. yields were going to be higher than china's. last year it completely reserved. -- it complete the reverse. tracking rate differentials yet again. in a world of negative yielding , rate differentials matter yet again. in white, you're looking at the difference between rates, and in the blue, looking at dollar-yuan. either we are going to see the fed walked back some of these rate cuts to see that differential compress, or the yuan is cheap, and with all that is going on with coronavirus and trade, it is a hard sell to make the case that the yuan is cheaper off of the dollar at these levels. you're basically betting that the bond yields are going to decline -- the yuan yields are going to decline relative to the dollar. it is more of a relative value trade. directional trades probably don't work as well in a market that is fully valued such as we are seeing. alix: thank you very much. i love the trade. damian sassower of bloomberg intelligence setting you up for the day. coming up, we are joined by gene tannuzzo, columbia threadneedle deputy global head of fixed income, plus michael antonelli, baird market strategist. what do you do when you have uncertainty and the ecb president warning about a lack of ammunition? this is bloomberg. ♪ ♪ alix: welcome to "bloomberg daybreak" on this thursday, february 6. i'm alix steel. let's take it from the top. and the rate at 563, 20,562.f cases said travelas restrictions are unnecessary, something to who has also said, saying there's no need to cancel flights as many airlines have done. china hasres. trump: made substantial and enforceable commitments. alix: china cuts tariffs as part of the phase one trade deal. >> applied to products ranging from everything to u.s. oil, to soybeans, to pork, beef and chicken. the tariffs will be reduced from 10% to 5% or from 5% to 2.5%. alix: it is unclear if china will be able to meet its import promises as the coronavirus ways on-demand. ms. lagarde: this low interest rate environment has significantly reduced the scope for the ecb. alix: global threats could undermine the recent stabilization in growth, and uncertainties remain high. >> the message is that this is the next downturn we are talking about, not imminent threats, and the european economy, if it is stable, it is stable at a low growth level. alix: german factory orders dropped in december the steepest in almost a year. >> it is therefore ordered and trumped that donald john is hereby acquitted of the charges in said articles. alix: president trump acquitted of all charges in the senate impeachment trial. the partisan scars remain. kevin: we did actually learn potentially of new divides within the republican party. senator mitt romney voting on one of those two accounts to convict president trump and laying down a gauntlet of sorts politically speaking. alix: president trump will make a statement at noon from the white house on our country -- on "our country's victory in the impeachment hoax." s&p futures hit another record high yesterday, granting higher 0.25%. a trade is note -- a traders note on the bloomberg just now, you can see that. 10 year yield by and coming in, trying to break that 1.70% level. yields are down by about two points. joining me for the hour is michael mckee, bloomberg international economics and policy correspondent. we don't always put a lot of money on what adp suggests, but perhaps the only thing -- and i know equity trader, so don't take my advice -- but perhaps the only thing you can say is underpinning the markets, the u.s. economy still seems to remain solid. alix: fair enough. you're a little pessimistic sometimes. michael: i don't see the cracks coming yet, but things are awfully good right now, and that is scary. alix: totally right. too good to be true. the equity rally continuing this morning. the s&p following its best three days since june. joining us in new york is gene tannuzzo, columbia threadneedle deputy level had a fixed income, and from milwaukee, michael antonelli, baird market strategist. you buy into this rally? michael a: thank you. i spent the better part of the past week or two weeks trying to separate signal from noise, and that is really crucial right now. you asked whether i would still buy the equity rally. i say yes. when a look at the exit rally in the u.s., what has changed in the past few weeks? there's been a lot of noise. there's been some signals. but jobs, housing, a friendly fed, all of these things that have been in place are still in place, so yes, i still want to own the market. michael m: you've got to wonder, though, from the bond side, can you be this optimistic? we have seen yields rise, but all of a sudden, they seem capped. gene: equities are at all-time highs. treasuries are pretty much at all-time highs, too. the stock half and bond correlation really hasn't -- the stock-bond correlation really hasn't worked. it could actually go the other way. the economy is pretty good, but the market is price for it as well. michael m: there's sort of a natural ceiling there you can't break through. gene: if you look over the last seven or eight years since 2012, when the fed adopted this inflation framework, the 10 year yield has been between 1.50% and 3% pretty much the entire time. now we come down to the 1.50% area again and we are starting to press higher. if we see the industrial rebound the ism would indicate that maybe we are seeing signs of, there's more upside for treasury yields. alix: to that point, if there's upside for treasury yield and you still want to be in equities, do you need to be in the growth market or go to value? yesterday we saw a huge rebound in value. is it still growth? michael a: i think you probably still need to stay towards the growth stocks. if you want to be a contrarian, you would be all about getting ahead of some sort of trade into energy or financials or small caps. a contrarian would be taking that view right now. i still think that if you look at the big companies that have been driving the rally, apple, amazon, they are operating at peak capacity right now. they continue through the earnings to show us that they are really well-run companies. i still think it is time to stay in the growth stocks. i would need to see this rotation into value or energy or these other more unloved sectors for a little while before i got interested. i would like to see that trade eve all the little bit. but look at financials. on ainly, financials are run. it's been a sector that has drawn a lot of investor interest so far this year. michael m: we've gotten six minutes into the show without mentioning coronavirus. you were talking about those tech companies. qualcomm talking about problems with chips because of china supply chains. do you want to get into those, or step back and wait and see what happens? michael a: i have a couple views on this. i try to ground myself and one thing, price. price pays. the market, in light of incredible uncertainty, is the best indicator for what the world thinks is happening. the market is at all-time highs. something else i like to ground myself in is the fact that china, who is at the epicenter of this breakout, can do unlimited stimulus. they could really open the doors to a level of stimulus the world has never seen. i try not to fight that. i try to remember that china will do what it has to to get its economy back on track when the virus eventually fades. michael m: as long as we are at talking virus, let me ask you. it is sort of like happy days are here again. gene: when you look at what happened to the treasury markets and we started to see the headlines -- markets since we started to see the headlines on the markets have moved ahead. do we really price it out again? it seems like no matter what the issue, the market once the fed to do something about it. alix: in the fed does it. michael m: even if the coronavirus is contained, isn't there going to be something else? market is confident that the fed will be there support. i think that is not always the case. there was this belief that there would be infinite liquidity, that is kind of what the market is price for right now. alix: that is what is minting strategists arvest -- that is what is making strategists nervous. citi warning of complacency, and jp morgan is reluctant to chase the short-term momentum, actually taking some risk off. how do you balance the two? michael a: i think you have to bucket it. whoealing with individuals are investing for the long-term, or more towards the institutions? have done the former almost nothing during the coronavirus outbreak uncertainty. the latter are always looking for an edge to jump out. if i was to talk to the institutional side, i would say use price as your guide. use what the market is. . telling you strategists -- market is telling you. are tuned to human error. the virus seems to be getting better at the margin. it could go back to getting worse, but the market is saying it is getting better. alix: what we did see is emerging-market central banks definitely having everyone's back when it comes to coronavirus. i did want to point out that real yields in emerging markets now turned negative, and they turned negative fairly quickly. is there still pickup you can get? gene: there is, actually. it does look like the real yield is pretty skinny, but if you look at individual companies, there are more positive real yields. brazil has almost no real yield. if you look at some other countries, yields are still positive. they have the ability to ease because inflation has been coming down. if that stops, they don't have that sex ability anymore. michael m: we saw thailand cutting rates negative, real rates now. is that something you are going to be thinking continues to spread, the idea of negative rates? swedes going the other direction, maybe denmark. gene: perhaps a canary in the coal mine. perhaps what we heard christine lagarde start to talk about his that negative interest rates really don't help economically. we haven't seen the growth impulse. we haven't seen inflation ramp-up. it is probably time to start looking at other methods. alix: gene tannuzzo of columbia threadneedle and michael antonelli of baird will be sticking with mike and i. coming up, twitter beating and premarket after beating on revenue and adding more daily active users. more next. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." toyota raising its forecast for the full year. the japanese automaker reported quarterly profits that beat estimates. toyota's focused on cost control helping buck the trend of recent auto earnings. in europe, there's also increased demand. a fund manager taking a major stake in deutsche bank, sending the share up the most in almost four years. capita group unveiling its 3% stake. largestw deutsche's shareholder. it was a better-than-expected quarter for twitter. it beat estimates for revenue and the number of new daily users. twitter giving the credit to product improvement and more personalized content. it now has 152 million people on average logging in daily, 21% more than a year ago. that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: thanks so much. we are more than halfway through earnings season. later today, we get uber. still with us, michael antonelli of baird. twitter held up, right? how do you buy tech at these valuations? michael a: again, you have to look at where the strength is. i am certainly a buyer of strength right now. you think about communication services doing well, software still doing well. ofre's worries in 5g come the atmosphere around 5g. then you thing about semiconductors. inventories have been falling, so there's a bit of a hope for a pickup, but it is a tough part of the technology world. i think you still stick with the winners. look at microsoft. all-time highs. we are going to put tesla aside. it is not a software or tech company. thing about apple, amazon. they are all still operating at full capacity. when i look at the tech sector, it is not as attractive as it used to be given the valuations. i think there's probably places i would like to rotate into, but i am a big fan of sticking with the winners, and there are some real big winners in the u.s. michael m: there's sticking with the winners, and then there's adding to positions. you look at microsoft with an estimated pe of 32 right now, that is beginning to sound to me like the year 2000. does this start to scare you? gene: well --michael a: well, it is a little different than it was back then. look at the multiple expansion apple has had. that is probably in the mid-20's now, too. that's the idea that these are really services companies, and software and hardware are falling as part of the revenue. does it scare me? it really doesn't. i think tech is on a roll right now. i want to stay with the sectors that are hot in light of this uncertainty about elections or a pandemic. i want to stay with the sectors that are on a roll, and that is, to me, the best way to look at it. put the valuation in the right context, which is that these companies are global, expanding their footprints, and dealing much more in services than they used to be. alix: the one thing that kind of isps into tech uncertainty regulation. qqq've been looking at the and its leadership now versus 2000. you're really making a bet on the big five. the big five have done quite well. they are printing money. i do think they have a little bit of a sign on their back, a target on their back, in terms of regulation. there's a notion that data and privacy, those types of considerations are more 21st century considerations in terms of how we value things. alix: what do you thing about that? -- what do you think about that? michael a: dean is a smart guy. i actually interviewed for a job with him once. i've got some great charts i put out as part of this. as part of the s&p, it is normal. it is just historically where it has always been. in broader markets, that point kind of goes away. i think that asset allocation probably matters more than security selection. i know that's the market strategist in me speaking. i do worry that they become too much. i worry that they become all of the focus of people like me and you and investors, all of the bloomberg users -- alix: looks like we had a lost connection there with michael, but so enthusiastic. he likes to buy what's winning. michael m: and then it freezes. alix: exactly. we will have to leave it there was michael antonelli of baird. much more coming up. we will look at the firepower that central banks actually have. christine lagarde is warning that it is not that much. this is bloomberg. ♪ ms. lagarde: this low interest rate environment has significantly reduced the scope for the ecb and other central banks worldwide to ease monetary policy in the face of an economic downturn. alix: that was ecb president christine lagarde speaking in brussels on how much room central banks still have. with me is gene tannuzzo of: be afraid needle -- of columbia threadneedle. gene: it is true, but if we look at other tools they have, they have the ability to do more asset purchases. the ecb has not gone into equities like bank of japan has. they could also look at more targeted lending schemes to parts of the european economy that need that growth. if you look at what the european economy needs, it is probably more fiscal help, particularly italy.nie countries like i think they need to look for other avenues. i think that is what lagarde's leadership is going to be. michael: but the bad news is the fiscal authorities are saying no. so what does the bond market do if there is no plan b? gene: all the central bank can do is create the conditions under which authorities act. as all the different countries and the parliaments and congresses that have to come up with that plan. if the ecb can create the environment in which interest rates remain accommodative, and they are, then we can start to bring those animal spirits back. we need to also have a little bit of a cyclical upswing. we have to realize there has been a big cyclical downturn. look at manufacturing in germany. the heartbeat of manufacturing has been so weak for a year and a half. a little extra help could give it an extra boost. michael: it doesn't look like it is improving, and we are seeing yields in germany lower again. are you getting used to a negative interest rate world in europe? do you buy anything in europe? gene: we talked to a lot of clients in europe. not all of them have seen the effects of negative rates. i think as banks begin to pass on negative rates to retail depositors, i think we will start to see the influence change. we will start to see the negative feedback from that and really have to look at other alternatives. alix: in terms of the sovereign market, is there value in the bond market right now? gene: in an absolute sense, no, but it is still one of the steepest curves in the world. but broadly speaking, it is more of a policy instrument than an investment. we see capital still migrating out of the region, which is why the dollar is still so strong. michael: continuing to stay strong, which continues to keep u.s. interest rates above everyone else. we just trade off the interest-rate differential in the u.s. at this point? gene: a little bit, but what has mattered more in the last year and a half has been the growth differential. that is where the u.s. has really pulled ahead. if we see the growth weakness led by europe about a year and a half ago, if they start to lead the rebound, the growth differential will compress in favor of currencies like in europe. buy the secular stagnation idea that we will have low rates as long as your career goes? gene: with a career in fixed income, i would like there to be positive rates. but if you generally look at the conditions that have caused stagnation, high debt, aging demographics, those things don't just go away, so we need to learn to invest in that environment. michael: is there still value to be had in things like high-yield, or are you trying to put some quality into the portfolio? alix: there's been so much issuance in europe. gene: the operating environment for corporations is still very positive, but leverages high. given the valuation environment in which the incremental guild you get for going from bbb and investment-grade to bb and high-yield is the highest since before the crisis. we much prefer investment grade. we think bbb's r.o.k.. there's -- we think the bbb's are ok. we think that creates a positive opportunity for fixed income investors. credit does make sense. structured products that focus more on the consumer also makes sense. but it should be in an effort to reduce portfolio volatility. alix: before the coronavirus come of the story was we are seeing green shoots in the economy. buy em and europe because that is where you will see more pickup in growth in the u.s. -- in growth than in the u.s. does that still hold up for you? gene: treasuries remain well bid. credit markets have performed well, and ems well. there are some -- and em as well. there are some pockets where we could still get positive outcome from the virus. in particular, i would look at energy, and we would probably want to be cautious on high-yield energy, but if you look at investment-grade energy, we think that is an area that could do well if we see a rebound in oil. in addition, i would say aem assets would do -- i would say em assets do well as well. of columbiaannuzzo threadneedle speaking with us. coming up, goldman sachs has a new report the talks about what the opportunities may be. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i am alix steel. initial jobless claims in just a couple of seconds ahead of tomorrow's jobs number. s&p futures up .2%. the dacs outperforming despite factory orders in december terrible in germany. it is a stronger dollar,. garrett you are seeing selling as yields -- you are seeing some selling. yields moving lower two basis points. the numbers dropping. initial jobless claims for last week bank in line with estimates. preliminary lead for the fourth quarter on unit labor costs coming in higher than estimated. much lower than the previous quarter at 1.4%. nonfarm productivity coming in light, 1.4%. a big jump from the third quarter. does any of this seem like a surprise to you? the productivity number seems like a nice move? it is a bad number. alix: compared to negative? michael: productivity is still low. the u.s. economy is not reversing course as somebody said the other night. it is a headwind to profits. it does not suggest the economy is getting any better for companies at this point. jobless claims, very good news. there does not seem to be any problem in the hiring markets. while this is several weeks after the survey for payrolls, it is supportive of the idea that gdp the other day, we may see a better-than-expected number. the number right now for is 163,000. interestingly enough, that is only 1000 more than yesterday before the adp report. did not change a lot of people's minds yet. we will see at the end of today. alix: fair enough. gene tannuzzo, you are nodding with that? gene: if you look back to november, the adp survey was well below where payrolls came in. the margin can be large and the report was encouraging. it is not necessarily a guarantee that enough people would be that high on friday. this number, jobless claims were pretty good, but continuing claims have been rising. that is something you might want to keep an ion. michael: not enough to make you worry. weekrop to 202 this past will probably keep that cap, but i would worry more about the productivity and labor cost in terms of the economy. the idea of population growth, very slow, .5% eight in. one point -- baked in. you can throw tax cuts are all kinds of things at the economy but that is about where we are, a 2% economy. gene: the positive impact from the tax cuts is starting to wear off. there might be a small head wind in 2020. alix: all of that is the macro backdrop antivirus and also .olitically risk it may jp morgan's client survey interesting. they showed client sentiment on treasury hit a low. clients are net short, odd for the price action we have seen in the market. roui,ng us is lotfi ka goldman sachs analyst. welcome to the fixed income party. we were talking about where the value is. what is your best call for treasuries? i think what they described over the last two weeks tells you investors have been trying to figure out the persistence of the growth from the coronavirus outbreak. sentiment has been improving the last couple of sessions and that is the market gradually embracing the view this is likely to be short-lived. there is plenty of uncertainty. the situation is fluid. our baseline view on the fixed income side and in credit is income will continue to be the dominant component on a forward basis. it does not change the basic story. the real reason for that is that valuation is expensive. to move meaningfully in the medium-term is quite limited story has the basic been the same. michael: you need a real surprise to change things. in germany, terrible factory orders today. the u.s., job growth strong, productivity week. we knew that. we accepted that. lotfi: i think you need at meaningfully surprised to derail things positively or negative. alix: you cannot with a report about a move into private credit. moving money into that area has been what is happening. what did you learn when you are writing this report? lotfi: $800 million of assets under management. private debt has established itself. if you look at investors in this space, the investor base is diverse. insurance companies, asset managers, sovereign wealth funds. what we have seen the last couple of quarters is three interesting shifts. the market is maturing. it has been decelerating since. the second shift is the composition of growth is shifting away from the u.s. into the rest of the world. europe is seen strong growth. behavior shift is the in the investor base is changing. investors are becoming more cautious, moving away from procyclical assets into countercyclical assets. is onells you the focus late cycle risks related to the asset class. michael: there are people who have growing concerns about private debt because we do not know what is out there. in an environment where people are reaching for yield, that never ends well. lotfi: the asset classes young. it is hard to draw historical parallels. it depends where you put the bar. when it comes to leverage lending, losses and defaults are key parameters. suffer investors will and will have to deal with default and losses. the question is, will those losses be a threat to financial stability. we do not think so. if you look at the way direct lending works, direct loans are generated by asset managers from capital they raise with clients. the kind of mismatches we had in 2008 with the excessive level of financial leverage that used to be deployed in 2008, it is not there. i am willing to take a benign view when it comes to risks and financial stability. gene: the one counter would be that private debt is the least liquid form of credit. when he think about the evolution of credit markets over the last decade after the financial crisis, we have seen the move into investment grade and then high-yield and then private debt has become in high demand. we see it from our european clients wanting to move that way because of the negative interest rate environment. you might think the right time to buy private credit is when risk premiums are wide and there is a lot to offer. really they are buying because there are very little alternatives. if the tide shifts, liquidity could be a problem. lotfi: i take a more nuanced view. the popular narrative you hear is that this is because of -- you have lived in a world where yields have been low and people are going private because they want yield pickup. what private debt investors the return as opposed to the absolute level of the return. if yield is what you want you can deploy leverage in the public market and get the same level of yield you get on the private side. what you can match is lower realized volatility you get in private debt alongside the higher level of yield risk. that is more difficult to achieve. there is a key ingredient to that. it has a price. that is illiquidity. what investors also realize is that illiquidity in small doses is probably better than optimistically priced liquidity, the structural shift that will take ways on the public side. gene: that is definitely true. i would say we do not know how liquid that is. we know a lot of capital has gone into that market and there is a lot that has been put into these funds not invested yet. you wonder about the credit metrics you're getting on the underlying portfolio. alix: who are the investors? are they the right investors? the ones that know the kind of risk they are taking. lotfi: mostly is institutional investors. ,t is sovereign wealth funds insurance companies, and asset managers. is ast guess is there pretty good understanding of the kind of risk that goes there. michael: the percentage of private debt funds that are leveraged, how big is that? lotfi: the disclosure is quite capsed, we know there are on the amount of leverage. compare that to the kind of structures we had in 2008, it is not big. that is one of the other reasons i think the risk to financial stability are fairly low. alix: interesting conversation. thank you very much. karoui and gene tannuzzo, thank you both very much. now let's get an update on what is making headlines outside the business world. viviana hurtado is here with first word news. viviana: president is declaring victory after he was acquitted yesterday is in his impeachment trial. the vote was almost entirely along party lines but mitt romney broke with his colleagues and voted guilty on one of the charges. president trump says he will speak at noon to "discuss our country's victory on the impeachment hoax." countries around the world taking more steps to contain the coronavirus. puta is the latest to restrictions on travelers from china. it says visas are no longer valid for travelers from the mainland. more than 28,000 cases are confirmed. opec and its allies trying to figure out how to deal with the drop in demand caused by the coronavirus. the coalition of technical experts recommending cutting production by 600,000 barrels a day. russia asking for more time before it signs on the idea. global news 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake by bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. i am viviana hurtado. this is bloomberg good alix: thank you so much. talking about commodities and this i heard the rumors weekend that it has to be at least one million barrels it cuts to make saudi arabia happy because they have saudi arabia go -- because they have saudi arabia and times of their people -- because they have aramco and tons of their people own their own shares. michael: you and i both went to conferences where they were talking about. where i was they were saying part of the problem with aramco's they have everything locked up so we do not know what they will get out of it, and it will be a while before we get the composition of what happened with saudi aramco. alix: meeting we do not know how much resales are in it. michael: nobody where i was thought there was any retail in it. it was the saudi princes who were told you will buy it. remember when they locked everybody in the hotel and said you have to give us money. this is another way to do that. alix: i heard that and i also heard it is right regular mom-and-pop's that had to own the stocks. this lack of transparency is probably for a reason and gives a lot more power to russia because it is not like they have to deal in a particular way, and they have a lower breakeven. they'll be interesting to see what power russia has. michael: now the question is outside of the manipulation of the prices, the fundamentals underpinning the prices. everybody is saying demand is going down. that will have an impact going forward. alix: i will be discussing that with ed morris later today on "commodities edge." the latest call from citigroup is in months we will see low oil. demand taking it on the chin. coming up, casper's sleepy welcome on wall street. more on fallen unicorns, next. any charts we use on the program, go to gtv on your terminal. this is bloomberg. ♪ viviana: this is "bloomberg daybreak." i'm viviana hurtado with your bloomberg business flash. blackrock scolded siemens for the way it handed a coal contract with an australian coal mine. environmentalists criticizing the german company for agreeing to the deal. blackrock says siemens needs a more formal -- a more thorough review of the risk. hsbc is it rollout its third overhaul in a decade. chairman mark tucker is looking at job cuts, closures. investors are getting frustrated. we end in brazil. the country unloading a $5 billion state in an oil giant. it is part of a wave of asset sales aimed at reversing years of government influence. bolsonaro wanting to turn more of the economy over to the private sector. i am viviana hurtado and that is your bloomberg business flash. alix: time for bottom line. we look at three companies worth watching. i am watching casper. you're looking at a $100 million valuation of ipo, bottom end of the range. the rhetoric is easy to say something like this means something about the capital markets, but on the same day a biotech company raised $1.16 billion, the top of the range. it means you have to show a profit. that is where you get risky uptake for an ipo. michael: this has been interesting to me because there are so many new mattress companies and we have all been used to the discount mattresses and how they compete and what the differences are. you told me this morning you do not drink a lot of coffee. dunkin's results are your far -- are your fault. isfriend in san francisco fascinated by dunkin' donuts because they do not have many so she will drive forever to get there. they will be opening new stores. tell them to put one near her. up butesults, profit was evenmissed on both sides, though comparable store sales up to .8%, the best performance in six years. expenses rising. they also came out with their 2020 guidance and guided it down. not particular great news from them, however the stocks up .4% this morning because what you do if you are a company whose results will not satisfy the market? you raise your dividend and announce a 250 million dollar stock buyback. dunkin' donuts will satisfy investors even if they cannot get their coffee. alix: the coffee price last quarter was up 44%, which is unusual and caught everyone off guard. obviously the prices down now but i wonder how much exposure they have in the stock market? michael: we will find out. they are not overly optimistic. alix: last up we are looking at macy's. brooke sutherland joins us. a fascinating analyst day yesterday. tons of restructuring coming out. closing 125 are stores. that does include 30 locations already slated to close, but another significant step to curtail macy's geographic footprint. they'll be cutting 2000 jobs. i want to point out that is at the corporate level and involves a lot of middle management jobs and does not reflect the impact from the store closures. you're talking about a significant reduction in the overall workforce at macy's. the fundamental question is does it work? macy's has been here before. they are calling the latest strategy polaris. they had northstar in 2017 and now here we are looking for another turnaround strategy. i don't know if it will be enough to save macy's. give them credit for trying to do the right thing and realizing they need to do more, but you cannot cut your way to growth as my colleague wrote in a column yesterday. they need to come up with reasons to get people in the store and get them to spend money. michael: they are in the same trap jcpenney found itself in where you are a middle market and you are not fully in the high end consumer and the low end person is going to individual stores or discounters? brooke: that is a lot of the stores they are cutting, neighborhood stores in these regional markets where you are not seeing the traffic. they have been investing in facelifts for their stores. they will do 100 more. they are seeing better growth there and more profit. but is a positive sign, what is the cost benefit analysis there? you spend a significant amount of money on these and maybe you need to write that footprint further. they are also looking at smaller format stores similar to what target has done. there'll be more shopping centers off the side of the road where you can easily pull in, grab things, walk out, versus going to a shopping mall. alix: if you close a macy's store, it is not like that person finds another macy's or goes online to get the product. they just go next door to the next distort and that is the broader issue when they're also trying to boost their e-commerce. fundamental purpose of department stores is to give people variety. you can look at a bunch of different options. now you can do that from the comfort of your home. they have to offer something else. they have to get people excited. they are talking about private label brands. they want to build up four $1 billion brands. that is not easy to do. target is farther down the path and macy's is. even target not that great holiday sales traffic. they seem to be losing share to amazon. i do not know anybody has found a solution to convince people you need to stick with these brick-and-mortar outlets. michael: i have not looked, but i imagine this is not good for the shopping center read because macy's is the anchor and a lot of shopping malls. brooke: they are talking about doing creative things with their real estate, saying maybe they can sell their parking lots and put something else there or build on top of their additional stores. michael: $400 to rent a parking space in new york. alix: could they have shuttles? that would be helpful. brooke sutherland, thank you very much, and mike, thank you. you're going to d.c.? michael: jobs day tomorrow. alix: coming up, twitter surging in premarket. resistance around the 200 day moving average. more on today's technically speaking. if you're jumping in your car, tune into bloomberg radio heard across the u.s. on sirius xm channel 119 on the bloomberg business app. this is bloomberg. ♪ alix: time for technically speaking. bill maloney joins may. listen to bill all day. type in squa . let's start with qualcomm. kind of murky when it comes to the outlook. bill: down 1.3%. well-off premarket lows. the trend is higher since january 2019. that is your long-term support. the stock merck, is still below the 2000 peak, which is 100. biogen, a pop to in premarket. bill: biogen surged intraday on patent news, up 2.7% in premarket trading, offered around 342 or so. it has been in these trading ranges amidst this range dating back to 2015. potential resistance today dating back to the 2015 cap. 324 and then three to 56. -- 356. alix: let's talk about twitter. bill: up around 8% in the premarket. your 200 day is 3655. that will be resistant. isve that, the october gap 3776. alix: thank you very much. that doesn't for me on "bloomberg daybreak: americas." this is bloomberg. ♪ jonathan: from new york city for our audience worldwide. i'm jonathan ferro. "the countdown to the open" starts right now. ♪ jonathan: coming up, stocks at record highs. investors gripped by fear. try to moving to -- china moving to half tariffs on u.s. imports. data in germany showing the worst is not over yet. here is your thursday morning price action. equity futures up 10. on the s&p we advance .33%. treasuries lower. yields higher, up one basis point to 1.60 6% on the u.s. 10 year. let's begin with the big issue. stocks at all-time highs. >> fear of missing out. >> fear of missing out. >> people with some cash. >> huge amount of money on the sidelines. >> this is a high-quality market with a number of high quality companies. >> tremendous buying opportunity. >> china will do everything they to