their export capability. everyone loses if the straits of hormuz is closed. i think you can't rule it out but i think at this point i would say it's unlikely. >> what is the more likely scenario then and what do you think that will mean for the price of crude? >> i think increasingly you'll see a ratcheting up of sanctions. eu leaders will take a position on whether or not to basically put an embargo in place on the purchase of iranian crude. if that goes ahead, it didn't shut off iran's export but it basically reduces the number of buyers and increasinincreasingl be forced to sell into asia and africa. it will be a distressed seller. >> how much less? >> $20, $30 a barrel. it could be in some cases having to resort to barter trade. it certainly would increase the cost to iran, reduce the money they get from selling oil and it would have a massive financial implication to the country.