Vance is a big liar with abandon. Those are three of my many takeaways of your show that i just watched. Those are some good topline. Better than chatgpt could do. Yes, very good. Well, i was actually watching. Have a great night, chris. Thank you so much. Thanks, jen. So, this is the little, white schoolhouse in ripken, wisconsin. That is literally it's name which is so quaint. The little white schoolhouse. It was built over 170 years ago, back in 1853. That unassuming little gable roofed building that you see right there is still there today, still standing there today, because in 1854 just one year after the little white schoolhouse was built a group of people got together in that little white schoolhouse, and came up with an idea that would end up changing the course of history, in many ways. At least, political history. At the time, america was hotly divided over the question of state slavery in the newly established kansas and nebraska territories. The people who met in that building, in that little white schoolhouse, decided they should start a new political party, a coalition party that brought together members of the whig party, and the free soil movement, and even some disaffected democrats who offered very different political visions for the country, but who were all united against their opposition to the moral crisis at the time of slavery. Now, they decided to call their new political party, the republican party. And the rest, as they say, is kind of history. The republican party would, of course, become the party of lincoln, the party that would end slavery and establish as one of america's two major political organizations, as one of the next century and a half, and still today. And it is one of those greater tragedies that the republican party of today is no longer that coalition of people committed to the idea of fighting back against america's worst impulses. Because today's republican party is instead a cult of personality. That basically revolves around one guy, donald trump. But, there is still moments of greatness, because today in wisconsin, the birthplace as i have just walked you through of america's grand old party, and you kind of coalition came together, to put its own stamp on american history. Earlier this evening, a republican chair from iowa you can see him right there took to the stage to introduce another republican, the daughter, of course, of a republican vice president who has long been despised in many democratic circles for his role in pushing america into the war in iraq, a woman who was once a member of republican party leadership, serving as the chair of the republican party conference just three years ago. Yes, she was there. Along with other republicans, as part of a new, wide reaching, basically moral coalition who stood on the stage with the democratic nominee for president, kamala harris, and said this. I tell you, i have never voted for a democrat, but this year, i am proudly casting my vote for vice president kamala harris. [ cheers and applause ] [ crowd chanting ] thank you, liz. Thank you, liz. Thank you, liz. Thank you. But mostly, we're not going back. [ audience reacts ] i ask you to meet this moment, i ask you to stand in truth, to reject the depraved cruelty of donald trump. And i ask you, instead, to help us elect kamala harris for president. There are so many powerful forces that have been intent on trying to demean and belittle, and make people afraid. And there are many who know it is wrong, and then there are those who have the courage to speak out loudly about it, and the conviction to speak truth. And, you know, it is so admirable, when anyone does it, and especially when it is difficult to do in an environment such as this. But, liz cheney really is a leader who puts country above party and above self. Now, you might be sitting at home and thinking and you hear this a lot this doesn't matter. Nothing matters. Liz cheney is not going to move the election. I mean, i happen to think it matters, but listen, maybe you are right. But, here is the thing. Wisconsin is a state that has been won or lost by less than one percentage point in the last two elections. It is always close, it is going to be close. And in that context, pretty much every vote, every new coalition matter, everything may matter. This endorsement and cheney's decision to campaign for harris are also not happening in a vacuum alone. I mean, in the last few weeks, over 100 former republican officials have endorsed kamala harris, and believe me and they have said this it is not because they agree with everything the harriswalz to get believes or is advocating for. It is because they both feel, as liz cheney said today, that putting patriotism ahead of partisanship isn't an aspiration. It is a duty. Cassidy hutchinson lifelong republican, even though she is quite young but she has been a republican her whole life, former trump white house egg eight. She put it this way with my colleague last night. I am really, really proud, as a conservative, to have the opportunity to vote for kamala harris and tim walz in this election. I say to republicans who may be on the fence, i understand how frightening it can be to potentially break with your party, but donald trump and jd vance cannot be trusted with the constitution. They cannot be trusted to uphold our rule of law, and they can't be trusted to enact responsible policy. So, of course, it is great, it is good to have republicans like liz cheney, and cassidy hutchinson, and the more than 100 republican officials who have endorsed harris all speaking out about the fact that one candidate will defend the constitution, and one won't. But, here's the thing, there are a whole lot of other republicans, prominent ones, who have voiced their opposition to trump, who have expressed concern about very specific things, like his ability to serve as commander in chief, about his temperament, even about his rowdy, that have still thought stopped short of endorsing his opponent, kamala harris. Look, i will call them out because we need to. People like mitt romney, who said he fears trump will target him and his family, if re elected. People like former president george w. Bush, who trump has castigated and attacked at every turn. People like john kelly, who said that trump has nothing but contempt for our democratic institutions, our constitution, and he would know, he worked for him. And people like mike pence, who would definitely know, whose life was literally threatened by trump and his mob on january 6th, and whose safety was a matter of such indifference to trump, wanting only a so what? look, i'm not saying it's easy. As cassidy hutchinson just said, it's not easy, it's never easy to go against your own political party. Liz cheney has definitely felt the consequences. She was excommunicated from the party that she spent her life that his father spent his life serving in. But, as kamala harris said tonight about the threat trump poses, there are many who know it is wrong, and then there are those who have the courage to speak out loudly about it, and the conviction to speak truth. So, mitt romney, george bush, john kelly, mike pence, we are 33 days from an election. If you aren't going to speak up loudly now, your moment to play a role in the history books may be passing you by. Joining me now are van winkler, chair of the democratic party of wisconsin, and atlantic staff writer, mark leibovitz. Thank you both for being here. Mark, i will start with you because you are sitting here with me. Now, you were with liz cheney when she came out and endorsed kamala harris. So, that was a significant piece of news. But, i want to ask you this, does it matter? because you hear that a lot, do you think it matters? 100%, it matters. I think there is this cavalier brushoff you hear from republicans, oh, well, liz cheney was booted out of her party, she lost reelection. You know, there is no constituency for mitt romney, for liz cheney. I mean, first of all, tens of millions of americans voted for dick cheney for president, for mitt romney for president. And then, there is a different category, which is the mike pence, the paul ryan, all of which have been on republican tickets, who have said they are not voting for donald trump. They have not gone the full nine yards, none of them except for liz, that have said they are going to vote for kamala harris. But, listen, the key words here are permission structure. There are tons of republicans out there and former republicans out there, and independents out there, who voted for donald trump in the past, who voted for many republicans on presidential ballots and down ballots over the years, who need that extra push. I mean, you get some credit, i guess, if you were going to say, no, not voting for donald trump. But, you get full credit if you vote for the one person who can beat him. Let me ask, because you have covered all of them, as well, you have covered mitt romney, all of these people. Sure, yeah. They have something to lose, certainly, as liz cheney did, but what is holding them back? is it that, or something else? that is a mystery. There are different categories here. Pence and romney both said they are not voting for donald trump, both for personal and unsurprising reasons. Often, these are cutesy things, like we are all right in, romney, or ronald reagan, or whoever. I don't quite know why they say, because they are protecting themselves i don't understand what is stopping them there. Then, the whole other category, you don't know what paul ryan is thinking. George w. Bush so, in texas a couple weeks ago, when i was interviewing liz, and a couple days earlier, she had endorsed kamala harris. I asked her if her dad was voting, who her dad was voting for, she said her dad is voting for kamala harris, made a little news. But, the predominant followup i heard from a lot of people that day was, where is w? when are we going to hear from him? and i don't think it is that big of a deal, because i think there is a pretty solid core of republicans, but some really big names are out there, who haven't really spoken out. I think, look, this is as it an existential of an election as people have said, i hate to be overstating this, but i think it is that big. And you are right, the dick cheney news, that was really big. Let me just go to you, let me ask you a similar question no pressure, but wisconsin is kind of a key decider in the outcome of this election, as you know well. It is also the birthplace of the republican party, as we all have been learning over the last 24 hours. But, as you have talked to people after that rally and even in advance of it, how much do these endorsements of these national security officials and republican officials matter to the voters you are talking to in your state, who may be on the fence or waiting, as mark just said, for a permission structure? these things do matter, and they matter to two different groups of voters. There is one group of voters that are the typical swing voters that people talk about. These are people who don't pay attention to politics, who think about politics the way that you and i think about the javelin at the olympics, which is something that we are vaguely aware happens every four years, but it is not something we are seeking out. For those voters, just hearing that democrats and republicans are all agreeing that kamala harris is the person, that might filter through, that might matter for some of them. But, there is a different group, who are the high information, highly engaged, highly principled, conservative republicans, whose first and core fealty is to the flag and to the constitution of the united states of america. For them, liz cheney shows that you can be yourself with your conservative commitments, but put country over party, over anything else, and cast a ballot that still retains and actually builds on your integrity as a person. Opening the door for those voters, who normally would not be swing voters in any stretch of the imagination, that can happen in the states that is likely to come down to less than one percentage point. That is why today's event was such a game changer. It was i wasn't there but, you were a really compelling event to watch on television. I mean, the other question i have just been wanting to ask you, who are these undecided people, and what are they waiting to hear at this point in time? i mean, how do you assess the percentage of, or number of undecided voters in wisconsin? kind of, what are they on the edge over? so, it is less than 5% of the electorate at this point, and we are doing everything we can to reach them, while also reaching all of the floats folks who will vote for harris if they vote. There are thousands of people with absentee ballots in their house right now, who haven't returned them. Anybody who wants to help us reach those folks, go to democrats. Org and chip in for our get out the vote operation. These voters are mixed. Some of them are people who are very conservative, generally vote republican, but think that the abortion ban is an on cross the line and they are trying to think, cannot really vote for someone who supports an abortion ban, given that they agree with me on other things? for some people, it is the opposite, there are some people whose faith tells them they could never vote for someone on the other side. That group is a lot smaller, i will tell you. But, who agree with kamala harris on taking on the price gouging big companies, and think that they will be better in the economy if they vote for harris. Some of them are people that think all politicians are crooks, they are fed up, they kind of like that donald trump is at least obviously a crook. For those voters, talking to them about how their choice will affect their life directly, the $4000 trump tax, that and the abortion ban, those things can make a big difference. And some have cross pressure, complicated mixes. You sometimes read about the median voter in a poll, i talked to those people at the door, they have a grab bag of views, it is about showing up, listening to them, engaging, and connecting on a level of shared values, often with local, trusted messengers that makes the difference. Then, there is this other group, the conservatives, often veterans, who are infuriated about trump's disrespect for the core of this country. Those people are out, too, in a different way and today's event helps us reach them. That is interesting. To the point of those veterans and those people that was a very comprehensive breakdown. That is why he is such a good state party chair. One of the things that struck me watching the speech today was that the messaging of it i mean, patriotism, love of country, a big chunk of the speech on ukraine, those are obviously messages that work very well for liz cheney. But, that is a speech, i think and you tell me if you agree here that could have been delivered by a pretrump republican on 33 days out from an election, in many ways. What do you make of that messaging? you know, you are trying to reach a lot of different people at this point in the election. Yeah, you could have heard that speech from mitt romney, from ronald reagan, from any number of what we would call, i guess, mainstream republicans, right? and liz cheney does very specifically narrow your focus to the constitution, to the rule of law, and also foreign policy a little bit. These are three core pretty traditional republican constituencies. And liz didn't get into this, but also part of it is, just trump's conduct, just basic decency i don't think it is liberal or conservative but there is a very basic american tenant that you have heard her alluding to, repeatedly, and i think that is part of the harriswalz message, just basic decency. I was out with walz a couple weeks ago, you just hear nothing, but neighbor, neighbor, neighbor, that is a big word you here with both of them. So, i don't know. I think there is sort of a unity behind them, but as far as the basic, core principles of conservatism, i think they definitely hit that today and if they give us the birthplace of the republican party, it seems perfectly consistent. It was a smart message, i thought, for today. It is so interesting, this many days out from the election. Mark leibovitz, thank you so much. I like talking to you. You have 5% of undecided voters to reach, you are very busy. Thank you so much for taking the time tonight. Also, develin is a big thing, i think about it a lot, so i'll just give a, you know, a shout out to the javelin. Appreciate you, both. Coming up, trump spent his first term trying and failing to prosecute his political enemies, but what about a second term? legal experts worn in the new york times today that trump will try again, if returned to power, we know that. This time, the results may be very different. We are going to discuss why after a very quick break. We will be right back. Back. And there were some days i was so short of breath. I thought i'd have to settle for never stepping foot on this trail again. I became great at making excuses. But i have people who count on me so i talked to my cardiologist. I said there must be more we can do for my symptoms. He told me about a medication called camzyos. He said camzyos works by targeting what's causing my obstructive hcm. So he prescribed it and i'm really glad he did. Camzyos is used to treat adults with symptomatic obstructive hcm. Camzyos may improve your symptoms and your ability to be active. 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[ audience reacts ] vice president harris is just one of many people that donald trump believes ought to be prosecuted. On multiple occasions, we showed you one of them, but multiple during the campaign, he has fantasized about exacting legal revenge over his political enemies, including president biden, nancy pelosi, liz cheney, and her fellow members of the january 6th committee, and now, a new piece in the new york times today, just out today, sites experts warning that trump must be taken at his word. The paper surveyed 50 legal experts, 39 of them said it was likely or very likely that trump would order the justice department to investigate a political adversary, if you were to be elected to a second term. Joining me now to discuss, emily breslin, author of the new york times piece, and a former prosecutor and writer at politico. His piece on the same topic is called the coming trump revenge tour. Both excellent pieces, they may scare you, but have a lot of information, but that is why we are here to discuss it. Emily, let me start with you. There were a number of stark and alarming quotes in this piece. This one stuck out to me that kind of summed it up, by peter chrysler, the founder of the conservative federalist society and assistant attorney general as well as acting attorney general for president george w. Bush. Here's what he said. There is every reason to believe that donald trump would seek to use criminal enforcement and the fbi as leverage for his personal and political ends in a second term. We don't know what will happen, but the risk is more concrete, with a higher probability, then in any election in my lifetime. 42 of the 50 former officials we surveyed said it was very likely or likely that a second trump term would pose a significant threat, you know, of the norm of keeping criminal enforcement free of white house influence. You also talked which i think is so interesting about the norms, how norms have kind of been abided by for a number of president's. So, i want to ask you, you know, as people are trying to understand the specifics, like, what do these experts fear could happen? when the norms are not abided by, that the system might not be prepared for? yeah, that's a great question. Since watergate, we have had this example of richard nixon, who was pushed to resign after he meddled in an fbi investigation. We have a burglary of the democratic national headquarters at the watergate, nixon's people are interfering in the investigation, and that is why nixon lost his presidency. So, since then, it has been kind of a bedrock assumption that presidents do not try to use the justice department for their own political ends, and especially, they do not try to prosecute their adversaries for political motivated reasons, that is an abuse of power. But, all of that hinges on words. Because the justice department and the attorney general work for the president, they are part of the executive branch. The person who restrains the president is the president. It is not an outside check. That is why this is such a delicate situation. And then, when you have a candidate like former president trump, who is being so loud and clear about his plans to prosecute his enemies, the people we surveyed who work for the justice department formally, who were at the white house counsel's office, they were the government officials who cared about upholding these norms. What they are saying is, they are alarmed, they are pretty freaked out by the things he is saying, because they understand how much the system depends on the selfrestraint of the person in the white house. Yeah, it's such an interesting the consistency over presidencies i mean, i worked for two presidents, and there was just this unspoken respect for the independence of the justice department, of the role that the white house counsel played, and i know that was the case for many republican presidencies, as well. One of the points that is really interesting that you make in your piece is that a second trump term would not be full of don mcgann. It would be full of jeffrey clark types, potentially. So, in terms of the role that different people could play because you really break this down in a frightening way the attorney general, which people think of as, oh, he is responsible for just announcing prosecutions, or announcing investigations, what are the things, all of the things, that an acting attorney general even could have the power to do, that people should be aware of? well, look, the attorney general runs the department. They can direct subordinates to open certain types of investigations to pursue certain types of charging theories, to file certain types of cases. Now, there are internal guardrails. Maybe the career prosecutors don't go along, but the attorney general, by design, exercises a lot of power within the justice department. Now, he is not the only figure sort of in this universe we need to be concerned about. There are other people besides the attorney general who exercised a lot of power in this area, too, don't always attract as much attention. So, this was a really interesting part of your piece i mean, i spent 10 years in government, and some of these jobs, i couldn't tell you exactly what they do but, you mentioned a couple of rules that people may not have heard of, but have, perhaps, an outside role, given a lack of understanding of the job. Give us some of those? listen, the white house counsel is an incredibly important position in this regard. It is not a senate confirmed position, either. Right, it could be anybody that trump wants. That would be the person that would be trump's liaison to the justice department to carry out this effort, simply because the president has many other things to do, including talking about watching television, we are talking about another white trump term. So, the white house counsel would have a pretty important role in that process. I knew about that when, give us another one. At the justice department, the head of the criminal division, oversees a lot of prosecutors in washington, the head of the fraud section overseas prosecutions throughout the country concerning whitecollar crime, fraud. Andrew wiseman used to run the fraud section. I used to work there. It can be a very, very powerful office. The u. S. Attorneys, obviously, throughout the country, but particularly the ones in manhattan, northern virginia, d. C. , delaware, if trump wants to pursue the bidens, those are going to be particularly important positions, as well. So interesting, because you don't always know about all of these roles. Now, emily, also in your piece, you talk about the phrase you use is tension in the system, which i thought was such an interesting phrasing. In terms of how you describe it. You just talked about this, kind of the trends we have seen since nixon, and what we have seen in terms of complying with in history, and how presidents and white houses typically work. What happens i mean, as you talk to these experts, in terms of her worst fear when there is no voluntary compliance with that, what is the thing they fear the most? i think they are concerned about losing this norm of independence for the justice department. The idea that rule of law depends on the safety of the public, that decisions will be made about who to prosecute, who to investigate, are based upon whether there is evidence of a crime and the priorities of law enforcement officials are about keeping the country safe and making sure that our laws are fairly and evenhandedly enforced. If you have a president who is using prosecution as a tool of his own power, things become very arbitrary and unstable, and people lose faith in the rule of law, and that is a real threat to democracy. So, i think the people we are talking to, most of whom work for the justice department or for former presidents, you know, they care deeply about the stability of the rule of law and preserving the country and the democracy as we know it. It is the independence of the justice department is such an important tradition, just to state the obvious. You did have before i let you both go back to your lives you did have a more positive note in your piece, or kind of a note to bring people back from the sphere a little bit, and you talked a little bit about the headwinds for trump, including this. You said, then there is this challenge of getting line prosecutors the people who would actually litigate and try these cases in court, with their longterm professional reputations at stake to go along with legally thin or baseless cases. Which, the argument is, he might want them to do that, and you say it is doable, to be sure, but not necessarily a simple matter. Like, all of these people are out there and are not necessarily just going to abide by what trump wants them to do. I would hope not. That is the one of the reasons why, hopefully, this would not go in the worst possible direction, because you would have potentially career prosecutors saying, no, i won't sign onto this. Now, there are a lot of career prosecutors at the department, you can shop around for them. The way i have thought about this is, the guardrails around this in this area, a lot of them were internal, or are internal within the justice department and the government, right? they concerned like , when an investigation begins, and the process of running in the investigation, things like that. That has become much riskier now, as a result of the supreme court's decision in the trump case, giving trump more unfettered discretion over the attorney general. But, the other guardrails that exist outside of the government, or at least outside of the executive branch, thinking about grand jurors, trial jurors, trial judges, appellate judges. Those things may still be able to sort of operate in the way that we would expect them and help them to operate. It is important for people to understand. Thank you so much. And emily, thank you so much. These pieces are so informative, so smart, you will feel almost like a lawyer, i did. I appreciate both of you joining me and really explaining it. Still to come tonight, coach tim walton is about to get off the sidelines thank god and get back in the game. That is coming up, next. Next. With wegovy®, i lost 35 pounds. And some lost over 46 pounds. ♪ ♪ and i'm keeping the weight off. Wegovy® helps you lose weight and keep it off. I'm reducing my risk. Wegovy® is the only fdaapproved weightmanagement medicine that's proven to reduce risk of major cardiovascular events in adults with known heart disease and with either obesity or overweight. Wegovy® shouldn't be used with semaglutide or glp1 medicines. Don't take wegovy® if you or your family had medullary thyroid cancer, multiple endocrine neoplasia syndrome type 2, or if allergic to it. Stop wegovy® and get medical help right away if you get a lump or swelling in your neck, severe stomach pain, or an allergic reaction. 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They want to take books away, they want to be in your exam room. That is what it comes down to. Don't get sugarcoating this, these are weird ideas. Remember weird? tim walz made weird happen and his ability to connect on television was a big part of how he pretty much single handedly catapulted himself onto the democratic ticket. I mean, he was funny he is funny engaging, and sometimes imperfect in how he communicates. That's what works. People see themselves in him. Everybody feels like they know tim walz. We have gotten to know him as the football coach, the teacher, the minnesota nice guy who talks openly about his struggles with starting his family, whose son made us all cry at the convention, right there. I might get teary now. A guy who knows how to actually accurately pick out a donut or it will be pie, because he is a normal person, and it is all super relatable, super appealing, and you would think it would be particularly appealing in states harris has to win. And that guy, who the democratic party fell for this summer, just hasn't been as visible or as viral since then. I don't think it's that the walz magic went away, that's not why. It's because he hasn't been out there much on the national stage, and maybe it is because of debate prep, that certainly does take time and he has never done anything at that level before. Or, maybe it is out of fear that he is occasionally going to slip up. I don't know entirely the reason, but i do know this, i have worked for a lot of politicians, people running for congress, for governor, and yes, for president for many years. The best ones are imperfect. They are a little rough around the edges, at times. But, that authenticity is part of what people like about them. Because people voters out there aren't perfect, either. The good news is, once the debate is over, the campaign is putting tim walz back on the trail where he belongs, and he has been out on the trail a little bit, but i mean out on the trail doing lots of stuff. Yesterday, he embarked on a bus tour through central pennsylvania, including a rally in york with senator john fetterman and a event with latino voters in redding. In minnesota, he is participating in a virtual event with muslim voters. On saturday, he heads to ohio, then the west coast. Next week, he will be in the swing states of nevada and arizona, and will also have some highprofile media appearances including an appearance with a special 60 minutes interview with vice president kamala harris and his latenight interview on jimmy kimmel live! and guess what? he may make some mistakes along the way. But, that's okay, this is not a time to play scared, it's a time to take chances, it's a time to see people who are a little rough around the edges, but super authentic and appealing, out there. It is a time to use everything at your disposal. As i said earlier in the show, this race is so close, everything may matter, including making sure you are utilizing one of the better communicators the democratic party has seen in a very long time. We will be right back. Ht back. Hey, everybody. W. Kamau bell here. They say that america is the land of the free. But right now, people in the u. S. Are seeing their freedoms taken away at an alarming rate. Freedoms some of us take for granted. The right to vote. Equal access to health care. Book banning and other forms of censorship that threaten our right to learn. And here's something truly shocking, right now in our country hundreds of thousands of people are incarcerated simply because they couldn't afford bail. That's not free and it's not fair. But there is hope for change. It lives in people like you and in a great organization called the american civil liberties union. So please join me and other concerned americans in defending our civil liberties by joining the aclu as a guardian of liberty today. All it takes is just $19 a month, only $0. 63 a day. When you're surrounded by oppressive laws you can't just sit back and be oppressed. You get up and fight and all of us at the aclu are fighting for you. Whether it's criminal justice reform or protecting the lgbtq plus rights, abortion rights or voting rights. The aclu is in the courts fighting for your rights, and mine and i, for one, sleep better at night knowing they're working every day in all 50 states to protect our freedoms. But these freedoms are at risk. We have to fight for them tirelessly and with your help, we will continue to do so. So please go to myaclu. Org and join the fight for just $19 a month. Use your credit card and get this special we the people tshirt, aclu magazine and more to show you're helping ensure justice for all. As an individual, donating to the aclu is one of the most powerful things you can do to fight for justice. But the aclu can't do it alone. They need your support now to continue defending our democracy and the freedoms we hold dear. So please join us. Call or go online to myaclu. Org today. Thank you. I think there is a real possibility this thing is going to come down to our blue wall state, come down to pennsylvania. Might come right through this restaurant, basically. That's what it's going to take to win this thing. The road to the white house runs straight through pennsylvania. And it might run right through the restaurant, maybe it will, who knows? the key, though, to a democratic victory there is philadelphia, where nearly 20% of the state democratic voters live. But, the philadelphia inquirer has this interesting report out about workingclass voters in philly. Once a key democratic base are now increasingly leaning republican. Largely, according to this reporting, because of the impact people are feeling their of rising prices and a nostalgia, from the trump era. I mean, this is a messaging push from trump himself, from the precovid era when he was president. It is not on the level, but people are buying it. This also notes that the shift began back in 2020, when democrats lost ground in neighborhoods where education levels were lowest and poverty rates were highest. This trend cuts across racial lines, but is most prominent in neighborhoods that are predominantly home to latino voters, which is the fastest demographic group in the city, and one that is also, across the country, moving in some ways more republican. Joining me now is laila jones, economic equity reporter for with the new datadriven inquirer piece, which i think is so interesting and such excellent reporting. It is important for people to understand what voters are saying out there. So, thank you, layla, to you and your colleagues for doing that and thank you for being here with me. I gave a quick summary there of some of your reporting that shows neighborhoods in the philly suburbs were lower education levels, at higher poverty levels, there is some trend toward republicans. As i said, i outlined a bit of the reasons why, but you tell us, you do the reporting, what you found as you talk to voters? sure, so, thank you so much for having me. What we found was that, like you mentioned, a lot of the reasons people were citing for their shift to the right was because of the economy, they felt that they were doing better under trump's presidency, then they had under president biden's. So, we found that in 2020, actually, biden performed worse than clinton in more than half of the cities. This trend is across races. There are white working class neighborhoods that have moved right, black workingclass neighborhoods that have moved right, but like you said, the largest shift has been in latino neighborhoods. I do also want to note, though, that there have been shifts to the left in more educated neighborhoods. Yeah, it is really interesting, the educational divide we saw back in 2016, and in some of your reporting as you noted, talks about this trend going back to 2020. One of the things you referenced really sticks out to me, you said in the piece, in some areas, voters increasingly cast ballots for trump. In others, democratic vote totals declined because turnout did fewer people showing up in blue strongholds is effectively a gain for republicans. So, as you are looking, based on your reporting, 220 24 and the election that is 33 days away, are you hearing more people if they are shifting, shifting to trump? or, maybe they don't want to show up? or, what is the trend you are hearing more of, from voters at this point? i think the overall trend that i have heard has been more about disengagement, in general, from a lot of the voters, then going toward trump. In philadelphia, it is still a democratic stronghold. Voter registration does still outnumber democrats to republicans by about 7:1. So, rather than people shifting to the right from voters that i spoke to, what i am hearing more is that they just don't feel engaged by the campaigns and they are not sure how exactly voting in this election will benefit them in their day to day lives. So, i think that voter turnout is where we might see the biggest impacts. You have referenced latino voters as being an area that we are hearing kind of the larger potential shift and we are seeing that across the country. Barack obama won 71% of the latino vote, harris is pulling in the high 50s, mid50s, depending on the poll. Is it the same? and i should say, there are 600,000 eligible latino voters in pennsylvania, which is a large number. Is it the same feeling among latino voters, that they feel disengaged, there is a nostalgia for the precovid trump era? are there any differences of what you are hearing from these voters? so, among latino voters that we spoke to for this article which, latino voters in philadelphia make up 16% of our city's population and growing, the fastest growing demographic we heard things about the economy, which matches what we heard from a lot of the other workingclass neighborhoods. We also saw some depressed voter turnout, and there were some individuals who talked about immigration and how they weren't confident in vice president kamala harris' immigration plan based on what they knew about former president trump's plan and vice president kamala harris' plan. Those were the three big things, the economy, overall disengagement, and immigration, that we heard from some latino voters. Such interesting reporting, layla. Thank you for what you do and being on to explain it to us this evening. I could ask 1 million more questions. We have to get to one more block, but i appreciate you joining us. Layla is from the philadelphia inquirer. Thank you, again, for taking the time, and we will be right back. Her neck earning a degree doesn't have to mean starting from scratch. At university of maryland global campus, it means building your next success on the foundation of life experience. Umgc values the successes you've already achieved. 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Tonight, at least 250 americans have been evacuated from lebanon as violence between israel and the lebanese group, hezbollah, mounts. Rescue workers in southern lebanon are struggling to save people following israeli airstrikes. Quote, body parts are everywhere. Children, civilians and bodies under rubble. These airstrikes happened just days after tehran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at israel. The nature and degree of that israeli response to that, as well as what iran might do in response to that, could of course have huge implications on the region and the world. Joining me now is the former deputy national security advisor under president obama. My friend and now cohost of the pod to save the world podcast. It is about the world, world events. Thank you for being here. You and i have had so many conversations over the years including when i was at the state department and you were in the white house. This is different, i think it is important for people to understand and we are all in this waiting game of what is next. How will israel respond? what will iran do? you have been in these situations over the years, anticipating similar questions. What are the scenarios for people in the situation room that they are looking at right now in the u. S. Government? first of all, this is the scenario you and i worked to avoid. The specific scenario of a direct conflict between israel and iran that could engulf the entire region, beyond what we've seen since october 7. I think in terms of understanding the israeli response, there is something they could do that is proportional, that is a response to the missile attacks, but does not aim to ignite a larger war. They could hit targets of the iranian revolutionary guard. Military installations were military targets inside of iran, to send a message, to respond or they could launch a response that hits at the core of the regime much harder. They could bomb oil facilities in iran, the revenue the regime depends on. They could bomb nuclear facilities. That is much more likely to ignite a conflagration across the region in which the iranian response is bigger than anything we've seen today tend in which proxies in places like iraq could be mobilized. Iran could choose to retaliate against oilfields of u. S. Partners in the gulf and we could really be looking at massive energy disruptions and obviously potential loss of life across the region, including attacks on u. S. Forces. That is what the administration would like to avoid. Right now the decisionmaker is not in washington, it is netanyahu in israel. No question. We knew this, you and i did and anyone who worked in the u. S. Government for the past few decades. What i think is been clear is that the u. S. Does not tell netanyahu what to do in the sense that he listens to it. He's not waiting for the u. S. To tell him what to do. He has disincentivize to not be in war footing because it is keeping him, in many ways, in power. With all that said and you can disagree with that of course, you know more about this than i ever will, but what should the u. S. Be doing? what can even do in this moment? you know, honestly, not all that much. I think there were times earlier in the conflict since october 7 when if the u. S. Had tried to use leverage on netanyahu and tried to withhold weapons shipments, put more diplomatic pressure publicly on netanyahu with other countries, that might have helped get this back to a ceasefire and hostage deal for gaza. Right now, though, israel has been on a path of escalation for several weeks, starting with the pager attacks and going into the strikes in beirut. The killing of the leader of hezbollah. Israel has fired back in yemen and committed to taking a retaliatory strike against iran and now it is iran who has participated in that missile attack. Right now there is a logic of escalation that has taken hold and that is the worrying sign. What is the offramp to this becoming a bigger conflict? that is what the administration is trying to do and i am sure diplomatically they're not just talking to israelis, they are sending messages to the iranians to not escalate further, working with other countries in the region to keep things as calm as possible, but they are in a bit of a wait and see mode and that is always a tenuous place to be when you are watching events as much as you're trying to shape them. We only have about 30 seconds left, but you are a professional. Aside from an impact on global oil markets, which you mentioned. Aside from a horrific event like the death of u. S. Citizens, in terms of the political impact, what are you watching? just to generalized scenes of chaos, which trump will try to make use of. The images of war and growing conflict are not good for an incumbent part me incumbent party in october. Lebanon has a very large population of american citizens and many of those people have family back in places like michigan that are important in the election and yes, price disruptions could really disrupt the global economy. Not only are you talking about potential increases in gas prices, you're talking about disruptions in the function of the global economy, so these things are all challenging. All challenging. Ben rhodes, i could talk to you forever. Thank you for joining me. You can catch me sundays at 12:00 p. M. , mondays at 8:00 p. M. Eastern. Now it is time for the last word with lawrence o'donnell. We have breaking news on the october surprise. The first october surprises now over. Port strike. That was the dock strike, which was really