Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Bottom Line 20150505

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and david powell is in london following the latest on the greek bailout talks, but first let's get you to some of the top stories we are following. disney is at it again. the world's largest entertainment company posted quarterly profits that were 10% better than a year ago. results improved at the disney theme park and merchandise units. "frozen" is still a big moneymaker almost $1 billion a merchandise sold. one clout, operating income fell at the disney table networks, the reason higher production costs at espn. after 20 years as the head of cisco, john chambers one as -- want to survive the boom and bust cycles, and now, he is stepping down as ceo. he will move to the chairman's seat, and earlier, mr. chambers discussed his new role. mr. chambers: i will be his wing man, the next frontier forces go, to power our growth not for one or two years but 10 years, focus on tea, strategic partnerships and speaking, so the bottom line is chuck will be the ceo. he will make the decisions. i will be his wing man, and i had my best night's in 20 years last night. mark: mr. chambers also told us he was not interested in running for the u.s. senate. and bill ackman. cutting annual costs by 2017, zoetis closing down some sites. bill ackman took an 8% stake in them and he has been pushing for cost cuts. in industries that make up almost 90% of the economy, the service sector unexpectedly grew at a fastest pace last month. the nonmanufacturing index rose to its highest level since november, a sign the united states may be able to overcome the slow down in manufacturing costs by the strong dollar and the slump in oil prices, and in zürich switzerland, first quarter profit almost doubled in the country's largest bank. they are reorganizing the bank to focus on wealth management and earnings were up 54%. meanwhile, ups is in talks with the justice department about settling an investigation into currency markets. they are at an advanced stage. ups may end up paying $1 billion. that is a look at the top stories we are following on this tuesday. the forecast for greece was lowered, growing by half a percent this year, it's previous of forecast for 2.5% growth. david joins me now from london, and, david, what does this lowered growth forecast mean for the governing coalition? david: it certainly means they will have a weaker hand in negotiations. this will mean less taxes collected. we also saw that reflected in the forecast for a lower budget surplus meeting the budget surplus before interest payments are made, so, essentially, the greeks are up against more than we thought they were. mark: david, the next eurogroup meeting is one week from today. what happens if greece does not come to an agreement with its creditors by that date? david: this will be the last time for greece to come to an agreement before the next big payment with the imf, which is due the following day, on may 12. it is probably important to emphasize that even if that payment were missed, it would not be as serious as a default on the government bonds of greece. the real date investors are focusing on is july 20, when the bond with the ecb holding will mature. that would probably mean an exit from the euro area. mark: is that july 20 data most important one investors should be watching? david: certainly. it is not to say that the mr. july payment is unimportant, just that the one in july is more important. mark: the syriza party had said there was a mandate when they were elected. the austerity measures implemented in the past few years were justin too draconian. -- were kist -- just too draconian. david: the imf has been more focused on cutting tensions and the european commission has been focused on other things, but in the end, all five are going to have to compromise if they are going to ride a solution and come to an agreement, and because greece is the one who needs the money, they are probably going to be the ones who have to compromise the most. mark: bloomberg intelligence's david powell, thank you. joining us from charlotte, north carolina, jay bryson. good to see you again, from wells fargo. jay: good to be back. mark: let's stay with greece for a few moments. the european union is forecasting the greek debt at 180.2% of gdp. that is clearly unsustainable. if greece effectively locked out of global markets for the foreseeable future? jay: yes, it essentially is. the only people lending to greece right now our official creditors, and as long as that that to gdp ratio remains at levels like that and shows no signs of coming down, it is hard to see private investors wanting to throw private money in there so they are effectively locked out of mobile financial markets right now. mark: factoring greece into long-term plans, what hope does the country have not only making a full-fledged recovery but of building momentum to put its people back to work? jay: well, it is really difficult. i think at the end of the day, what is going to have to happen is there is either going to be a default in greece, and they were probably at that point end up leaving the eurozone, or the official creditors, and that would be the ecb, the imf, the european union in general, they will have to take some kind of haircut themselves to get the jet ep -- get the data to gdp ratio down. mark: what about getting it back to sustainable levels? jay: you look at the haircut taken years ago, maybe those are sort of the numbers we are looking at here. mark: jay, looking at the overall economy, they raise their growth forecast. how much of this is because of the greek and euro and ecb stimulus measures? jay: well, i think it is a combination of a couple of things. another thing going on is lower oil prices. that certainly helps them, and obviously in euro terms, that still has come down, and then the third thing is the measures that the ecb has taken some of the targeted lending that they have done there. we are starting to see bank lending turn around, so there is an offspring. certainly it is enough to get the european commission to raise its forecast, and it is something simple we are looking at right now. mark: i am speaking with jay bryson with wells fargo. will the euro area look at the deflation that the europeans predicted back in february? jay: absence some sort of shock, they probably will not be looking at deflation. right now, the overall rate of inflation is zero in the eurozone, and that is largely because of oil prices. when you look at the poor rate zero point 6%, so it is above zero at this point and as long as you do get this cyclical upswing, you will see that start to creep up, but i would emphasize that. creep up. we will be looking at a eurozone that has a very low rate of core inflation i think for the foreseeable future. mark: it has fallen against the dollar since the start of this year. you compare that with unemployment, expected to reach 11% this year, does it seem that the massive ecb stimulus may not be enough? jay: there is no question about extending this. and i guess what i would emphasize is qe, like in the united states, it is no silver bullet. it is not the only thing that turned to united states economy around, so your needs sustained growth in the rest of the world to help its exports. it needs the ecb to continue to do its accommodative monetary policy. it helps on the margin, but it is not a silver bullet. mark: jay, we have about 30 seconds left. we started with greece. let's end with greece. what kind of contagion are we looking at in the eurozone? jay: that is a great question, mark. back two or three years ago, we saw a lot of contagion to italy and spain. a lot of people think there are more back stops, and that we have not seen them back up a lot, but we will have to wait and see. if greece leaves the euro zone, it could be dicey, at least for a little bit. mark: jay bryson from wells fargo joining us from charlotte, north carolina, always a pleasure to have you. thank you for your time. jay: thanks, mark. mark: after the break, toys from "frozen" are the gift that keeps on giving, when "bottom line" continues in just a minute. ♪ mark: welcome back to "bottom line." let's get you to some of the top stories we are following. the islamic state is taking credit for the shootings in texas, and they threaten more attacks. two gunman opened fire outside a contest of cartoons featuring the prophet mohammed. the police returned fire, security guards, killing the one min. agents had reported elton simpson talking about fighting nonbelievers for all of -- allah. and my cup of the announces he is running for president, his second run. he wasted no time jumping into the debate on the iranian nuclear talks. mr. huckabee: and let there be no doubt, israel will know, as will the whole world, that they are our trusted friend, and the ayatollahs of iran will know that hell will freeze over before they get a nuclear weapon. mark: huckabee is the sixth republican candidate in the 2016 republican race. the u.s. justice department has joined an investigation into a link of inside information from the federal reserve back in 2012. the fed has agreed to turn over the names of people who met with global advisors that year. janet yellen, fed chair, says she was one of them, but that the meeting happened months before the leak. he allegedly got details of the fed qe3 plan before it was made public. boxer manny paquito said he injured his shoulder before last saturday's loss to floyd mayweather. the associated press says he may face disciplinary action for not disclosing the injury before the fight, and that is a look at the top stories we are following. coming up at bloomberg television disney earnings so strong even without a major blockbuster movie. at 2:30, capital partners with the inside scoop on the internet and tv expo being held in chicago, and at 2:55, alix steel with the fallout from the david einhorn comment on the shale drilling industry. "bottom line" on bloomberg television continues in a moment. ♪ mark: welcome back. this is bloomberg's "bottom line ," streaming online, on your tablet, and on your phone. taking a look at how the world's largest entertainment company, disney, did in the past quarter. break down the numbers for us. reporter: i have to say that the magic kingdom and everyone over there should be expecting a huge fireworks display after what came out today. interns of revenue, $12.5 billion, versus an estimate of 12 and a quarter. and the earnings-per-share was a huge pop unexpected, 1.23 versus $1.10 so 13 extra sense there. mark coleman we are talking some very big numbers. we are talking about the movies. "avengers: age of ultron" is the buzz. how did they do? ramy: they turn out about $420 million, but that was down year on year. remember where we were last. we were off of the hike, sliding off of "frozen" and elsa, and they did not have a blockbuster movie, so it is going to be a little soft. but, with that said, you are talking about "avengers: age of ultron," and we may see a pop in the numbers. mark: all of the things under the disney umbrella, any profit there? ramy: yes. while movies were down, it turns out parks were up about 24%, half $1 billion in terms of revenue from all of the parks, both domestically as well as internationally, and people remember that disney did break that $100 ticket very or in orlando, the first time that ever happened, so that, coupled with rising volumes of what people are buying, as well as people going to the parks themselves, they are pushing that number up. mark: ramy, we are also talking about a consumer driven economy. people have disposable economy -- income, and they are loath to part with that. we talk about people waiting to hold onto their money because they have to pay mortgages, send kids to colleges, that they are still going to all of these disney theme parks and movies. why? ramy: it seems like some link with consumer confidence that we have seen rising. this may be having a trickle-down effect. i, myself, and seeing friends people thinking the economy is getting better. i think i can show out a little bit more here and there. i do not know about $100 for disney. i am a little old for that now. the weather is getting warmer. we will see these numbers increase. mark: espn. part of the disney network. they have branded themselves as the world sports and entertainment network. how about that? ramy: this time, espn is a little bit of a wait -- weight around disney. they saw higher costs, even the revenue was higher and that was because of higher production costs for college football as well as an nfc wild-card that they had to pay out. mark goal in any surprises? anything jump out at you? ramy: with the analysts, before expecting something a little bit lower, so it was more positive than what people were thinking. on the street, they were saying they were going to raise their forecast for the next 12 months. for example, citibank as well as guggenheim a couple of other financial and lists. they said over the month will raise their target to 100 $25 potentially even $127 and it is right now around 100 $11. and we may see that close at a record high. mark: ramy, what is up with those "frozen" toys? the gift that keeps on giving. why is that? ramy: it has to do that they had hit on something that resonates. the song itself still is in my head, and children still want it, and we are still seeing, if you will, and echo of elsa of what people are buying but it clearly was not as much as when it came out this time last year. marco: i guess i would be remiss, with all of the information you gave us, what is that telling us about the bob iger leadership at disney? ramy: people like what he is doing. with his leadership, there are a couple of things. ad revenue is getting a little bit soft. but not too bad. the phrase is cautiously optimistic, but with the movies, we are talking about the marvel franchise and the pixar acquisition. mark: he was also mentioning on the conference call about his interest in "star wars." ramy: lucasfilm. the trilogy. we know we are going to watch those. with marvel, there are actually 11 more movies through 2019, so that is going to be a lot mark:. all right thank you a lot. when "bottom line" continues the internet and television expo underway in chicago. ♪ ♪ mark: welcome back to the second half-hour of "bottom line." i am mark crumpton. we began, as always at this time come with a check of crude oil and a close of trading on the floor in new york. crude oil is up, trading at 60.40. copper futures up one third of 1%. it is more than just another streaming video deal from amazon. amazon prime customers will be able to access movies, tv shows, and music onboard jetblue planes, giving the world online retailer access to a captive audience of potential customers. passengers who are not amazon prime customers can sign up on board for a three -- free 30-day trial, and posting earnings that beat estimates sprint, also gaining subscribers for a second quarter in a row now 57 million users. at means sprint will hold onto its ranking as the third-largest wireless company, ahead of t-mobile, and that is a look at the top stories we're following this tuesday. the internet and tv expo, it gets underway in chicago. the three-day event brings together interesting leaders to discuss the trends affecting cable tv and online video and how those trends impacting the new landscape. a managing partner of corporate finance at media tech capital partners joins me in the studio. porter, welcome back to "bottom line." this can be summed up that it is not called a cable show anymore. porter: it is the internet and television show, but it really should the the speed dating cable connection show. mark: why do you say that? porter: because it is in disarray right now. after the time warner fell apart, it was an issue. they have all got to come together, because, basically, this convention, which as you said, used to be called the cable convention they are not talking about the things that are really changing the cable industry. net neutrality, there is not one mention of that in their agenda in the three-day conference. wireless broadband. nobody is talking about what google is doing in kansas city and six other cities, reducing internet distribution that is 1000 times faster. so --mark: so porter, you think there is still room for the megamerger? order: it is necessary. they need to get the efficiencies of consolidation because right now, we are on the verge of seeing the unbundling of cable which we have been talking about for 10 years. the verizon skinny bundle started that whole practice. there is one element of glue that is holding cabling and bundling together right now, and that is called sports. mark: porter how much of this is about operators trying to gain scale? porter: that is their goal, but really, it is operating efficiencies, and you have unusual market leaders like jimmy dolan of cablevision putting out a cut the cable product that gives you cable television on the internet. that is a cable operator. not some of the else in the industry talking about it, but that is inevitable. mark: porter, our mergers the only way to disturb readers can stay competitive at this point? porter: you might see a different type of merger. the telcos, at&t, that is the start of it, and you have got verizon and sprint and t-mobile. they have faster and better delivery systems than the cable companies do, and there are efficiencies of scale there, as well. everything is going mobile. a dumb screen. mark: porter bibb, joining us. what about what this means for the industry as a whole? porter: three technologies. dsl, cable modem, fiber, and the cable industry spent over $1 trillion in infrastructure putting fiber everywhere, and then you had the wireless broadband, and that is where google and certain other technology companies are in the lead, and the cable industry is not talking about it, or they don't know how to respond. mark: ok, you mentioned a moment ago that they are not even talking about it at the expo. porter: at the cable convention. mark: are you surprised by that? why is that? order: they are still trying to figure out about the consolidation. this is a cable speed conference. they are not focusing on anything else. a have one interesting item on the agenda this afternoon, the economics of original programming. after netflix and all of the over-the-top programmers have shown them that this is the wave of the future. cable is getting around to talking about it. market: porter, a spokesman is quoted in the washington post as saying what is the cable industry? how would you describe it? porter: it is an industry that is transforming very rapidly and it will be a broadband industry going forward. i do not think that the whole concept of the bundles and the economics the retransmission fees, they are going to disappear as more and more content goes over the top, so there is a huge amount of uncertainty, but at this convention, which should be facing some of these critical issues that are impacting the industry, they are not on the agenda. mark: what is this going to mean for the consumer? porter: good news for the consumer. because things are going to get cheaper. more competition, and more content makes everything cheaper. mark: porter, always great to see you. after the break, the top stories from latin america, including the effect on higher oil prices on petra blast. when "bottom line" continues in a moment. ♪ mark: welcome back. it is time for our latin america report. vespa. a rally in oil above $60 gulstan the outlook for petrobras -- bolstered the outlook for petrobras. the world's biggest. and a racing earlier losses as profit topped analysts estimates, and now to chile, where the economy grew more than expected. the services industry offset contraction in manufacturing. the central bank said this morning that the index that is for gdp rose 1.6% from one year ago. a forecast by bloomberg was for an increase. looking for the world's largest copper producer to accelerate. and this is according to economists surveyed by bloomberg, and that is your latin america report for this tuesday. still ahead, hedge fund billionaire david i'm worn's new target. we will tell you, next. ♪ mark: welcome back. let's get you to some of the top stories we are following. boxer manny paquito will undergo shoulder surgery earlier this week. he said he injured his shoulder before last saturday's loss to floyd mayweather. the lawsuit is from ticket buyers and television viewers who paid as much as $99.95 to watch it. they say he may face disciplinary action in nevada for not disclosing the injury before the fight. shares of disney were at a record high before the world against entertainment company reported earnings that beat estimates. the big reasons better attendance at disney theme park and profits due to toys from the disney blockbuster "frozen," and they will be releasing the "star wars" film "the force awakens." ceo: it is unlike something we ever saw before. it had 88 million views and has something like 200 alien views to date. mark: bloomer intelligence predicts the new film could bring in $200 billion worldwide. the apple female chief is the highest female executive in the united states. ahrendts' money includes a sign on bonus and money she left on the table from her last employer, rubber ring -- last employer burberry. and later on "street smart" the ceo of newell ruberm -- rubbermaid. su joins us. su: futures surged to break above the $60 level, and, in fact, above $61 at one point. this is the first and we have seen this since september. it is also a psychologically important level. let's check the numbers. we see the after-hours opera trading numbers, crude oil rebounding for a six month, near $61 as we speak. we have also got the big thinking that is taking place, which is that north american production will decline and the supply glut will start to ease, and this is right ahead of tomorrow's supply data from the government. we are also seeing the production of oil rigs at its lowest level pretty much since 2010. and trading activity, all futures traded, volume above the 100-day moving average today. michael lynch, the market is probably getting ahead of itself, and that is because of what we are really seeing is inventory still at record highs. it is going to take a lot of time for this to go back to normal, they say. bloomberg's latest survey shows it likely rose last week. that is what we will find out tomorrow, and what we are seeing is just a huge reaction to that things are starting to ease. one says he really does not trust that rally, and there are many that are joining him on that. mark: oil seems to be inching higher. su: and there is inflation something the gold bugs get excited about. a few that the labor department or labor market is rebounding, and that is also giving a lot of inflation fears which, again is good for gold demand. mark: su keenan with the commodities report, thanks. david einhorn takes a shot at producers. here is a look at what he said yesterday at the sohn investment conference. david: this is less than half of the $72 where the stock trades. it is dramatically overvalued even if they have a 11 billion barrels of resources and we see a return to prior peak prices. the problem is that oil fracking is high cost. mark: alix joins us. alix: it becomes a question of in part, valuation and this is something that david einhorn talked about. mark: he took them to the woodshed. alix: the prices are up today as well. some analysts are talking about this. barclays says, for example producer and expiration shares are pricing in a $95 barrel of oil, and they may need to see 50% changing if they do not see the prices move their way up to a different oil level, and it raises a question. you only see this because they have dividends and juicy cash flows, but for the sort of expiration and explore companies, you own them to monetize production later. they are going to get a lot of oil out of the ground later, and that is when you have the monetizing, but no doubt, this is a very cash flow intensive business. mark: and some of this is really strange. alix: and that has been the question. there is a lot of m&a waiting. we have not really seeing this take hold as of yet, and the issue is that the capital is the lifeblood of these industries right? if they do not have the capital cannot get access to the capital, then the companies have to look elsewhere, but the markets are giving it to them. we are not seeing a discount in the shares because there is the higher oil price. a fall in oil prices could reduce this by as much as 13% but that is not yet reflected in any kind of default or issues that we have seen in the stock. mark: ok, then which of the fra ckers are in the best position now? alix: if i knew, i would be in a lot of money. continental and pioneer and others have total debt of about $23 billion, but that is almost half a that do dionne five years. only a fraction, $500 million is due in the next few years. production is up 70%, but they have been increasing spending sixfold in order to get there. mark: david, david, david what is on "street smart" at the top of the hour? alix: we will be talking spirits. constellation brands. we will talk to a cfo, and also a ceo of ashley madison, if you want to cheat, go to that site. they tried to go public in canada. they did not go public. they are kind of a taboo company, so they will see if they can get it off the ground this time. mark: oil, beer. alix: oil beer affairs. mark: scarlet fu will join us on the other side of the break. we will be right back. ♪ mark: get the latest headlines at the top of the hour on bloomberg radio, streaming on your tablet and on bloomberg.com. that does it or this hour of "bottom line on bloomberg television." i am mark crumpton. on the markets is next, followed by "street smart" with alix steel. anchor: microsoft is set to consider a bid for salesforce.com, according to people with knowledge of the matter. there was a rival company approach and salesforce was said to work with two banks after getting that previous approach. this goes back to the idea that salesforce had ordered some financial advisors after it was approached by another company for a potential buyout, so microsoft is one of the companies that is potentially considering such a bit once again according to people familiar with the matter. we will give you more details if we get any. you can see the jump in there share price right now, up to about 6%, 75.82. all right, let's take a look at the action on the street. a global selloff today. the batch of u.s. data today was mixed, but the largest trade data in months. gold moving back above 1190 announce. all right, banks and brokerages have underperformed the broader stock market this year, and jpmorgan trading on highs. citigroup climbed its way back to levels last seen in 2009, and a 13 month high. joining me to break it down is our editor at large for bloomberg news. editor: it was a really good earnings season. they saw earnings growth of about 9% and a surprise, beating estimates by 10%. but really what has gotten people talking about this recently is this rise in yields that we have seen in the treasury market, and the yield curve especially are at behind levels of the year depending on what you are looking at. scarlet: they are saying this has more to do with europe. michael: the net interest margin is what you want to look at. the bank will are wrote short-term and loan out long-term, so whenever the yield curve rise, it has a lot of people thinking this could be a potential more profitable experience for banks in the future. scarlet: sum up for us what kb w says. michael: within that interest margins, they are saying you have to look at adjusted net interest margins, and banks have obviously cut their provisions for bad loans. that helps their profits. those provisions are so low that as loan growth get stronger and as interest rates rise, they will likely add to those provisions, and that could likely offset it. scarlet: ok, michael regan, editor at large, thank you. microsoft is said to evaluate a possible for salesforce.com. this is according to people with knowledge of the matter. salesforce is working with two investment banks to determine the appropriate response to approaches from unnamed companies. we now know that microsoft is one potential company that is looking into buying salesforce.com. microsoft is not necessarily in talks with salesforce. no deal is imminent either according to those that we spoke with, that microphone -- microsoft is one potential bidder of salesforce. we will have more with alix steel and street smart, next. ♪ . . alix: welcome to the most important hour of the session -- 60 minutes left until the closing bell. i'm alix steel and this is "street smart." concerns about growth and race about greece. we are counting down to earnings from herbalife and electronic arts. plus how warren buffett and bill ackman are influencing the u.s. bond market. "street smart" starts now.

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