POLICY FORUM 23 July 2021 Despite assertive posturing by Chinese leaders, growing economic ties and the strength of American resolve make war over Taiwan very unlikely, Daniel Fazio writes. At the recent centenary celebrations marking the founding of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), Chinese President Xi Jinping made the belligerent assertion that China and Taiwan would be ‘reunified’ on the Party’s terms. His words were an expression of the tensions between China and Taiwan that have afflicted the region since the end of the Chinese civil war in 1949. Although the People’s Republic of China (PRC)’s claim to sovereignty over the island of Taiwan ensures it will remain a major Asia-Pacific geostrategic challenge for the foreseeable future, this does not mean conflict between the PRC and the Republic of China (ROC) over Taiwan is inevitable, and the history of their relations suggests that beyond the political rhetoric and propaganda, cautious optimism is possible.