Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo 20130

CNBC Closing Bell With Maria Bartiromo May 1, 2013



there, down 15 points, almost 1%. wrapping up the first day of the new month, let's get straight to today's action. joining me is nathan bacharach, and greg ip, cnbc contributor from the economist. gentleman, good to have you on the program. let's first parse through what ben bernanke said today, greg ip. two lines, the fiscal policy is restraining economic growth struck me. and number two, the committee is prepared to increase or reduce the pace of its purchases to maintain appropriate policy accommodation, as the outlook for the labor market or inflation changes. what's your take on the fed today? >> so, i think the second part where they explicitly stated that they could up or down on quantitative easing was the innovation in this week's statement. and the reason it's interesting is that if you go back to the meeting in march, after the meeting, ben bernanke in his press conference explicitly raised the possibility of going up or down on qe. but all the chatter that we heard in the following weeks was about going down, tapering off, you'll recall, was the wording they used, because they thought the economy was going to get better. then we had all this data, the bad unemployment numbers that suggested maybe that wasn't such is a hot idea. the effect of adding that sentence in today's statement is to make those risks more symmetric to say, hey, it isn't basically a done deal that we'll taper off by the end o. year. it's possible we could go up. all that said, i think it's a very high bar for them to justify increasing the pace of quantitative easing from here. >> so you don't think they're going to increasing it, is what you're saying? >> i don't think it is. i think given their concerns of the size of their balance sheet, the underlying optimistic about the economy, it would have to be a much bigger disappointment than we've had thus far to do more than $85 billion a month. >> sure. nathan, does anything that was said today change how you want to invest? >> well, it didn't change how i want to invest, maria. i still believe that what you should do is reallocate by june and avoid any swoon. but i'll tell you what i did put together from the statement today. i think the fed put two statements in there to send a very big message to congress, which is, if you don't start spending and get over sequester, i'm going to spend more money and you don't want me to do that, so you do your part. and i think you can tie those two together. saying we're going to go up or down means we can do whatever we want. that's not new. but saying, look, congress, i need some stimulus out of you, i need some help on your side. and if you don't give it to me, i'll show you. i'll throw more money in the hopper. >> david, how about you? how do you see it? >> i see the fed as evasive as ever, maria. but embedded in the statement is simply more monetary easing. the closest i've ever seen the fed in 20-plus years in saying to washington, misguided fiscal policy and the tax increase is having an impact on consumer spend, early in 2013. and nevertheless, we'll see interest rates low. we've already seen the ten-year at 1.63%. and i think that's a sign that the fed, along with the economy, has seen some moderation in growth. and since the alcoa earnings number, stocks have been barely positive and small cap stocks have actually been down. >> maria, i want to make it a point, jumping on to something david pointed out there about the fiscal policy. the fact that we've had this slowing now is not as big of a surprise to the fed, i suspect, as it has been to the rest of us, because they have been worried from day one that the big tax increases in january and the sequester would be a major drag on the economy. and so, i have always seen folks at the fed and bernanke in particular as very circumspect and not willing to take to the bank, the strong jobs numbers we had earlier this year. so i suspect they have not been as surprised as the softness in the spring numbers as the rest of us. so maybe we shouldn't be surprised that they remain open to the possibility of keeping qe at this pace. >> i thought it was interesting that they would say they would go either way. i mean, they're just doing it, i think, to have a statement, but not say anything. is this like greenspan speak? >> yes, it is, classic fed speak. >> it is, but they're also reacting to what they might believe to be a preponderance of chatter, out there in the markets, but tapering off. >> we're only seeing about a 40% beat on revenue in the s&p. they might be going, oh, gee-whiz, maybe people are spending less. how about that? they're spending less, what a miracle! >> you know what everybody was talking about yesterday when i was at the milken conference in los angeles, and i'm talking about large, deep-pocketed asset al indicators. they're putting money to work. they keep saying there's no confidence. everybody -- there's so much uncertainty still. how long have we been talking about no confidence and uncertainty in these markets? first it was, you know, that the regulatory environment was creating an uncertain situation. now the fed as well, because we don't know when this ends, if this is temporary, if this is actually doing anything, and so people are -- companies, once again, are sitting on their cash, not putting any money to work in terms of -- all they're doing is buying back stock. >> based on that, plmaria, i wod reallocate right now. take your profits. there's been a good first four months of the year. there's nothing wrong with taking some profits and reallocates right now and then see what happens. >> how do you reallocate? >> i'm walking away. i'm reducing my dividend-paying side and going over to ibw. i believe that before it's all said and done this year, growth is going to get back in fashion. i think you want to be in growth before it gets back in fashion. you talk about financials and you talk about all the companies we used to get excited about. >> how about tech? what happened to tech? >> dividends are still growing 15 to 13%. and that's a very positive catalyst. >> that's where i would go. you know, when utilities are leading the pack, maria, you've got to yourself, really, that's where the cd money goes. it goes to utilities, because that's safe in the investor's mind. >> what are the catalysts, you think, in the coming weeks? so we heard from the fed? we've got a couple more earnings reports to come. is everybody now just focused on the economic data, the jobs numbers friday, you know, to really dictate where this market goes next, because it's going to dictate the fed's hands? >> if i could make a point about the jobs numbers, so i think we have an unemployment rate coming out for april, and the consensus has been around 150,000 jobs. now, we had a very weak adp report that suggests that the number will be well south of 150,000. i think that even if the street leaves their consensus expectations alone, nobody is going to be too surprised if the number comes in below that, which i think is probably going to happen. so i think we've now reached that stage of the cycle where people's expectations have adjusted downwards and the shock value will have faded somewhat. but the reality will be the same, an economy growing very, very sluggishly. >> stay right there, guys, hold that thought. facebook is out. we want to get to it. julia boorstin right now with the numbers on facebook. over you, julia. >> that's right, maria. facebook's coming in with eps of 12 cents per share. that is a penny light of expectations, but revenue is coming in a little bit heavier. revenue coming in at $1.46 billion instead of the $1.44 billion that was expected. maria, there's a lot of emphasis here, of course, on mobile. facebook says that it's mobile month active users were 751 million in march, that's an increase of 54% year over year. that's also higher than what wall street was expecting. now, also looking at that key number, the percentage of revenue, of advertising revenue that comes from mobile, now that number is 30%. that is higher than the 27% wall street was on average expecting and it's up from the 23% that we saw in the fourth quarter, the prior quarter. so we are seeing growth in mobile advertising revenue and it was an increase revenue of the total piece is now 85%. the advertising grew 43% over the same quarter last year. so that growth rate is roughly the same. and we continue to dig through this report and we'll be back with you with more details. thanks, maria. >> all right, julia, thank you very much. let's dig through these numbers right now. luke kerner of national asset management joins me along with max wolf of greencrest capital. gentleman, good to see you. you've heard the what's your take on the facebook quarter? >> i think it sounds very good. i think what the street is looking at is how they're progressing on mobile and their progression on mobile was very strong. particularly on the active users in mobile, we were looking for 725, so 751 was great growth. and on the revenue side, they also beat, and they still have a lot of initiatives that are going to further accelerate their growth there. so it sounds like a great quarter. >> you were saying earlier, max, that there could be some risk on revenue, but we see the revenue coming in pretty much a little better than estimates, slightly better. what's your take? >> great to be on with you, again, maria, as always. i think this is the story we're going to see for the next several quarters. so we have a decrease in the desktop, the pc users, we're kind of used to that. it's been the story out of google, it will be the story in the space for the next 6 to 12 months, minimum. and what we're seeing is a smaller margin, because you get paid less for the mobile ads. so the game is, ad more mobile ads as you lose the pc traffic and add a whole lot mobile ads, because you don't make as much money per ad as you do on the desktop. the issue there, you're shredding a pretty sharp needle, because if you add too many ads, you begin to alienate the users, who really do have other choices. and it is very encouraging to see the user traffic shoot up in mobile, but it does underscore the challenge of monetizing that mobile much better than they do, think about the traffic percentage mobile versus the revenue percentage mobile, highlighted again today, with a good revenue number, with the soft margin number. >> so what do you want to see now in terms of further work on the mobility part of this story? >> i think we really need -- >> go ahead, max. >> we really need to see a facebook exchange turn on and see instagram turn on a revenue proposition that doesn't alienate people. the pressure is going to stay on. that desktop engagement with the higher ad rate will continue to decline. so you'll have to constantly put up really good mobile numbers, have been as facebook goes from being to the desktop to an app, which is what it is on ios and android. >> what about you? >> i think it's going to continue to be mobile, mobile, and mobile. and what max mention ed on the facebook exchange is exactly right. facebook exchange is where they take what you're doing off of facebook and leverage all that information on facebook. they haven't started doing that in the newsfeed, which is their major mobile monetization, and as they do, that will further accelerate their mobile growth. >> actually, the stock's been quite volatile and is traded down right now. back to nathan bacharach from the financial network group, david sowerby, and greg ip, cnbc contributor from the economist. what do you think is wrong with tech right here, david? >> i think tech is mistrusted. there's concerns about global growth in europe and china. yet, i take a look at tech underperforming. and if you strip out apple and look at the median tech stock, it's come pretty close to keeping up with the s&p 500. and more importantly, for going forward, valuation in technology, whether it's price to sales, free cash flow yield, price to earnings, i think tech is trading at a discount and should be an area where you can be increasing the waiting in your portfolio. large cap stocks like qualcomm, which have recently disappointed, smaller cap data plays like teradata, that's a great keeper of data and provider to retail and i think those are two tech ideas for you. >> you know, i guess part of me feels like it's europe, right, nathan, we still have, real issues in europe, and a big portion of revenue for a lot of major companies comes from europe. >> it sure is, maria, but that's on the edges. only 20% of most corporation revenues coming from europe. i think the problem is, a corporation is made up of human beings. and at the end of the day, you look at the life span of a device in technology, they're keeping it longer. just like you and i at home go, you know, i would replace that heater this year, but let's keep it for another year, i think the same thing is happening with technology. you look at the life span with corporations, they're keeping stuff a lot longer, because right now, what's the motivation to go sinking money into, when the demand isn't up? >> maria, i think the problem has been more fundamental than that. if you look at the behavior of productivity in our economy, it's much more sluggish than it was ten years ago when the internet boom was still young. i think the reality is, all the products that apple and google are bringing forth, they're not transforming the productivity of our economy. it tells you something that when apple issues the biggest investment bond ever, $17 billi billion, what do they plan to do with the money? buy back stock. it's not just apple, it's the tech sector as a whole. they're generating cash faster than they can figure out how to deploy it into positive rate of return investments. that is the story for tech and the broader economy. >> all right. we'll be watching that one. gentleman, thank you very much. appreciate your time and we will see you soon. tough market today for stocks. josh lipton has been tracking which stocks took much of the hit today. josh, over to you. >> hey, maria, yeah, your biggest drag in the dow today, that would be ibm, big blue down over 1% today, now up just about 4% thisyear. as for the s&p 500, best performer, western union, the money transfer company saying it's seeing return to profit and revenue growth in 2014, stands by its guidance for the current year. western union now up about 15% this year. but the bears, they were winning today. on the s&p 500, more than five losing stocks for every one winner. some of your worst performers, jds uniphase, adt, one oak, and marathon petroleum. your worst performer, that would be allergan, the news, approval of its new eye drug will be delayed for up to years. but that was good news for regeneron pharmaceutical, rgen, your best performer today on nasdaq, the worst performer on that tech-heavy gauge, fiserv. and next, we're hearing prices are soaring and the market is hot, so why is home ownership at an 18-year low? diane olick and the ceo of the real estate giant, douglas elman, already here on that. and clorox makes everything from bleach to charcoal. i'll talk exclusively with the boss, the ceo of clorox joining me about the company's soft sales numbers and how he views the current sales of the economy. also, three more people arrested in boston on the marathon bombing case. we will have the very latest developments for you, coming next. you're watching the "closing bell" on cnbc, first in business worldwide. d# 1-800-345-2550 with the lowest operating expenses tdd# 1-800-345-2550 in their respective lipper categories -- tdd# 1-800-345-2550 lower than ishares tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and vanguard. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and with all our etfs commission-free tdd# 1-800-345-2550 when traded online in a schwab account, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it leaves our investors with more money to invest. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 something they've come to count on with us. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 so as investors continue to set their portfolio goals high, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 we help keep their costs of investing low. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 give us a call and open an account today. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 carefully consider prospectus information, including tdd# 1-800-345-2550 investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 request a prospectus by calling schwab at 800-435-4000. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 read it carefully before investing. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 fees and expenses apply. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 investing involves risks, including loss of principal. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 fees and expenses apply. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and suggests words you can0 flick on to the screen. blackberry z10 with flick typing. built to keep you moving. see it in action at blackberry.com/z10. welcome back. take a look at this market. we finished down 138 points here. that was just shy of the low, which was about 152 on the dow jones industrial average. the market selling off earlier today, despite the fact that the federal reserve came out after its two-day meeting and said it's ready to either reduce or increase its buying of bonds and that stimulus. meanwhile, we have new data out on housing. federal reserve policy makers left interests unchanged. diana olick now with that angle. over to you, diana. >> that's right, maria, the federal reserve saying today the housing sector has strengthened further, but fiscal policy is restraining economic growth. now, when you talk about strength in housing, you're talking about home prices, of course, which, as we saw yesterday, continue to rise. but we also got another report that showed the home ownership rate has fall ten to 65%. that's the lowest level since 1995. if housing is recovering, why is home ownership still falling? that's because it depends on who's buying. an investor who doesn't live in the house doesn't increase the home ownership rate, ands investors are fueling a lot of today's sales. we also know that the mortgage market is holding many potential buyers back. mortgage applications rose slightly last week, but all on the back of refinances. applications to buy a home fell, and they really haven't moved much over the past month. one third of the home-buying market is all cash and prchinur applications are just a quarter of all mortgage applications. still, interest rates are down again to the lowest levels since december, according to the mortgage banker's association, so it's not the rate, it's the availability. supposedly, though, underwriting is loosening up a little bit. a survey of bank risk professionals by fico found nearly one in five expect the approval criteria for loans to become less stringent, and that's up from just 12% at the end of 2012. now, there is already more flexibility in the standards, though, not necessarily a loosening, that's according to inside mortgage finance. what that means is that fewer lenders are requiring high credit scores and full documentation, but you still need to meet two out of three of those. so, again, still very shaky on that edge, maria? >> it sure is. diana, stay with us. we want to look at whether this housing rebound is for real. joining the conversation right now is dottie herman, she's ceo and president of douglas elliman real estate, good to see you. we keep hearing, housing is so hot, and it is. >> it's hot in new york, but i wouldn't even compare new york, because new york is an anomaly, it's an international market. new york recovered about a year ago and a half ago. >> how come there's a report today that says that home ownership is at an 18-year low. >> the you look at the national average and what happened over the last six, seven years, obviously, people across the country were underwater, they had lost equity, they couldn't buy, most had walked away. so even if they wanted to buy, they

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