Transcripts For CNBC Power Lunch 20100125 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Power Lunch January 25, 2010



consumer finances ice cold. capital one, four-month low. done more than 100% of the daily volume and it is now down 17%, larry in the past three sessions. back to you. >> all right. thank you very, very much. melissa, we are going to have the presidential announcement. sounds like more target at tax credits. i like the cross the board tax cuts because of jfk and reagan. because it affects everybody. and creates a rising tide for all the votes. i hate this business of singling out winners like houses and this and that. i just don't like that. >> we will listen to president obama talking after his task force meeting. >> comment on the great work that the middle class task force is doing. you have seen why joe is the right person to do it. no one brings to the table the same combination of personal experience and substantive expertise. he's come a long way. and achieved incredible things along the ride but has never forgotten where he came from. and his roots as a working class kid from scranton. he devoted his life to making the american dream a reality for everyone because he lived it. we all know what that american dream is. it is the idea in america we can make of our lives what we will. the idea that if you work hard, and live up to your responsibilities, you can get ahead. and enjoy some of the basic guarantees in life. good job that pay as good wage and health care and that will be there when you get sick, and secure retirement even if you are not rich. and education that will give our kids a better life than we have. very simple ideas. the ideas that are at the heart of the middle class. the middle class in a made the 20th century the american century. unfortunately, the middle class has been under assault for a long time. too many americans have known their own painful recessions long before any economists declared there was a recession. we just have come through what was one of the most difficult decades the middle class has ever faced. a decade in which median income fell and our economy lost about as many jobs as it gained. for two years, joe and i travelled this country and we heard stories that are all too familiar. stories of americans barely able to stay afloat despite working harder and harder for less. premiums that were doubling, tuition fees rising, almost fast, and savings being used up, retirements put off, dreams put on hold. that was all before the middle class got pounded by the full furry of the worst economic crisis since the great depression. their stories are why joe and i ran for this office. to reverse those trends. to fight for the middle class and make sure working families have a voice in the white house. and to do everything within our power to make sure that they don't just survive the crisis but again, they can thrive. when we walk through these doors last year, our first and most urgent task was to rescue our economy. to give immediate relief to those that were hurt by the downturn but also to rebuild it on a new stronger foundation for job creation. so we helped state and local governments keep cops and firefighters and teachers on the job. helping to plug their budgets. we invested in areas with the most potential for job growth. both immediate and lasting in our infrastructure, science and technology and education, clean energy. these steps have saved or created about 2 million jobs so far. but more than 7 million have been lost as a consequence of the recession. epidemic that demands our relentless and sustained response. last month, the house passed a new jobs bill. the senate as we speak is hard at work developing its own job creation package. creating good sustainable jobs is the single most important thing we can do to rebuild the middle class. i won't rest until we are doing just that. we also need to reverse the overall erosion in middle class security. so when this economy does come back, working americans are free to pursue their dreams again. there are a variety of immediate steps we can take to do just that. steps poised to begin taking in the budget that i will put forward next week. joe already spoke about the proposals in detail. proposals that make it's easier for families to get by and students to get ahead and workers to retire. to make balancing work and family more realistic, make it's easier to care for children and aging loved ones. to make college more affordable, easier for students to pay back their loans and forgive their debt earlier if they choose a career in public service. to make retirement for secure we will make it's easier to save through the workplace. joe and i are going the keep on fighting for what matters to middle class families. education that gives our kids a chance in life new clean energy economy and the generates the good jobs of the future and meaningful financial reforms and that protect consumers and health reform that prohibits the worst practice and peace and sta bit for middle class families. none of these steps alone will solve all the problems facing the middle class. joe understands that and so do and i the members of the cabinet and our economic team. hopefully some of these steps will re-establish some of the security that on slipped away in recent years. because in the end that's how joe and i measure progress. not by how the markets are doing but how the american people are doing. it is about whether they see progress in their own lives. we are going to keep fighting to rebuild our economy so that hard work is once again rewarded and wages and incomes are once again rising and the middle class is once again growing. above all, we are going the keep fighting to renew the american dream and keep it alive not just in our time but for all time. again, to our team, and that includes, by the way, the folks over here, thank you for the great work have you done. and i'm excited about a lot of the proposals you have come up with. and we expect we are going to be able to get some of these critical initiatives passed soon so folks can get help right away. thank you very much. >> president obama there following vice president biden reporting on the activity of the middle-class tax force. among other things. the state of the union address on wednesday. among other things, doubling of the child care tax credit for working families with incomes up to $85,000. a system of so-called automatic workplace i.r.a.s to enable people to save more quicker for their retirement. caring for elderly relatives and plan under which some student loans may be retired sooner. this is obviously all part of thrust to help the middle class and to reach out to the voters and probably also in his budget address which comes up in a week or. >> talking about spend when the debate was starting to shift more towards talking about cutting. but apparently we are still talking about spending. >> the market right now is up 42 points. it has been a steady day so far. >> the message he did not get from massachusetts was we need fewer government programs. >> apparently not. >> seems to be the case. doubling down into more of that. >> i think i'm the luckiest woman in television here. look at this. >> three hunky, handsome -- >> what did i do to get this -- >> new cast of "the jersey shore." >> good grief. >> let's go down to the new york stock exchange and check in with bob pisani where stocks are moving up today. rick santelli standing by in chicago. mr. pisani, you go first. >> good to see you. good news is looks like mr. bernanke will likely be confirmed. bad mousse there has been damage to the perception. perception of the fed's independence at this point. also a little bad news on the home -- just the home sales numbers. it didn't drop the market significantly. take a look. little bit after mirror image of last week here in the materials stocks, energy stocks higher. halliburton had a tough time. it had the same problem with schlumberger. they haven't seen their customers spending much. oil services sold big last week. most are bouncing back. same with material stocks. good news for the steel companies like a.k. steele, they are seeing prices rise in the steel business. take a look. finally at the regional banks. they are all under a little bit of pressure here today. capital one after the numbers on friday, also under pressure. credit card spending my not recover as much as some people think in 2010. that's what cap tamm one said. that's why the regional banks are being faaffected. they got the five-year greek knock auctioned off. four times oversubscribed. >> we haven't seen all the concrete details. from what i understand the book is being closed after some in our time zone may be get to participate but the last concrete detail i saw had over 24 to 25 billion in bids. if it is -- $8 billion issuance it is a factor of three-plus at the very least oversubscribed to. you get a lot when you are 350 to 360 basis points over comparable swaps. this is a juicy deal. it underscores that it is it isn't whether you can issue, it is how much it cost you to issue. if you con to think that way, maybe that has some application of higher interest rates here and dollar is a push. slightly lower. and rates here are slightly elevated. not much. >> thanks, rick. i'm filling in for michelle today. the white house ramping up efforts to make sure is the fed chief gets its 60 votes needed to get beyond the fill buster and 51 votes to confirm for second term. despite saying they won't for him. congressional leaders predict enough votes for bernanke. why would the bashing backfire or did it? will the fed chief go back to the fed wounded and weakened? joining us now is cnbc's chief washington correspondent john harwood. chief political strategist at potomac research group, cnbc contributor. john, what are you hearing this morning in terms of vote counts? >> senior white house official will be confirmed comfortably. guess being half the republican caucus and it is going to vote 20 votes for this. will be in the low 60s. >> greg, what's that mean if that comes in the low 60s meaning 40 votes? >> well, that's the point. i think they have been weakened and they have to say the blood lust from the populist for a human sacrifice will persist. i think that they are still out for geithner. we get bernanke, it would have been unthinkable and unforgivable if congress had not approved bernanke. i think that geithner still has real problems. >> in terms of mr. bernanke, though, chairman bernanke, how will if indeed the vote count comes in as is suggested, how does it change or does it change the way that the fed does business? because it dash you know, it certainly is not a huge vote of confidence given what we know now. >> so, everything that he does for the next couple of years will be interpreted through a political lens. if he doesn't too quickly, politics are behind that. getting 35 votes the political speculation about what the fed does. >> do you agree? >> you know, i think that it does. i think that the key thing is that did they see this as mass -- in massachusetts hysteria or more enduring in terms of the fact from the federal reserve. what i envisioned in the next six months or maybe a year after bernanke's confirmation that this would happen, there will be a new -- absolutely historic accord between the treasury and federal reserve such as we had over the past -- post-war era where they will agree what the fed can and can't do in terms of billion answer sheet and role the treasury will have. i think that they are sitting with these mortgage backed securities on their books and highly political and i think that bernanke wants to put back to the treasury on the political mortgages. >> greg, is it the fed here -- wounded and weakened even if bernanke gets reappointed? what did you think of reid -- hinting that he got assurance out of bernanke for loose interest rates? >> i'm not sure reid accurately reflected the quote. i'm not -- he may have misrepresented what bernanke said. it is troubling. you have to say that's unnerving. it also is good to see and step up from the plate and judd gregg of new hampshire. why is bernanke weakened by this and seems to me that the opinion of the members of the senate have been considering this has been harmed more than bernanke's reputation has been. if you talk to people in both parties, you know, once the hysteria goes away, the dust settles, people will give ben bernanke credit for saving the economy. he has another four years. >> if they say don't do this, it will hurt the fed. the only thing i care about is how much weight does that hold when he gets in that seat and says not to do something. my thinking is he's -- he's wounded in that regard. >> i guess. i mean, you know more about the fed than do i. i'm just -- thinking that this is a guy who once he gets confirmed, he -- i assumed he will do his job like a xwroenup which is what he has done over the last couple of years. and i think that senators dashes especially once we get out of the white heat of this unbelievable panic that has caused people diving into bunkers, that people are going to see that the guy deserves cred credit. >> barbara boxers and others that were so scared of running for re-election they couldn't have done the right thing and voted for bernanke. >> all right. thank you very much. straight ahead, it is another big week of earnings. they kick off today. i will head over attorneyings central. drill down the numbers for you. >> also this hour, hamptons crowd facing foreclosures at an alarming rate. am earnings today, tablet expected to be unveiled on wednesday. we will get you ahead of the curve. >> get ready for the fast money halftime report. we are still innerings season. halliburton came out of the box this morning so-so. >> basically they beat the sometimes 28 cents versus 27 cents a share. it is hard to cheer. profit was down 7%. revenues down 20% from 2008. operating income down 50% from 2008. and they said that 2010 is going to be a transition year. though they do note some pickup in natural gas exploration which certainly helps them. now let's give you, sue, a look at where we stand overall on earnings for the season so far. 97 companies in the s&p 500 reported so far. 9% have beaten on -- i don't think that's right. no. 79%. that would be a big, big difference. >> 79% beaten on eps. 65% beaten on revs. if you look at what's known as blended earnings and you -- which is basically an amalgum of reported and estimates, if you take away from the financials, blended earnings up 9%. >> all right. let's talk about the markets and what all this earnings news means. let's see what will move the markets as well. dan cook, senior market analyst. ig markets. dan brady. the debate last week was whether or not the correction had started. you say you are mott sure whether this is the correction that has started but if we do see the correction, it is going to be a sizable one. can you elaborate that on, please? >> certainly. there is still a lot of confusion in the market. we are looking at a positive earnings season overall. as we saw last week, it was basically ignored due to the political conflicts. people likely to see more of that. we have a lot of stuff happening. i wouldn't surprise me to see a little bit more of a rally. this would be the major correction. as we get a little late near the quarter we have the fed closing the credit windows and a lot of debates in washington and that's likely to put a lot of weight. haven't seen any economic recovery to speak of outside. what would -- what i'm trying to get at is you say you are looking for a sizable correction, 10%, 20%, 25%? >> i would say probably 20% to 25%. i'm looking at levels probably wouldn't surprise me to see range of 8800 to 9,000 on the dow. >> when does this happen by? this is dennis. when would it drop to 9,000 by? >> april or may. i think by the middle of the year we start to get a little bit better footing. i think when we start hearing more about reverse repos and term deposits probably come around april, may. we will see a large setback. particularly if we hear more about things like glass steeg zblel you don't buy stocks now then in that case unless you are buying and hope hoping to bill out in time? >> not many. a few individuals i like but i think i will be around. sector by sector, more bearish than what i am bullish. >> john brady, how is bernanke playing out in the markets today? >> i think it was a little bit of nervousness. s&p has done range trade. really struggled to maintain their positive. you know, yogi berra once said it is not over until it is over. so the more we chat about bernanke's reconfirmation and the longer it takes for the actual vote, the more of that does have a potential to instill perhaps some nervousness into the equity markets. we may not see that trade until thursday, friday. you know, politics can make for strange bedfellows. i understand senators come out public and say sure, i will support his reconfirmation. 11th hour or deep into the night they may not and that's a risk for the market. >> looking further than this next week, is there an impact on monetary policy, how the fedex its here? that this whole political fair influences? >> i don't think so. i think that -- maintains to monetary policy siloed think think the fed is determined to finish its mortgage backed security support program at the end of march. i think that short term overnight rates probably remain well anchored and at 0%. i think your other guest suggested the removal kwan twoua first step towards normalization. the fed has a long ways to go and i don't think the short-term political heat on dr.ber in an ee and committee will greatly affect monetary poll. >> i i appreciate that kind of thinking. it is an important question for whenever look to all the to do and surrounds bernanke. what's the actual impact on policy? how does that policy impact the policy. thank you very much. dan as well. up next, which camera? very big names. >> markets heading on to the advances. worth 52 points on the dow jones. some of that has to do with the market being able to focus just on earnings this week perhaps. instead of all the rhetoric coming out of washington. we will see whether or not that continues. we are back in a minute. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 investors got lost in the shuffle. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 investment firms forgot whose money it is. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 enough is enough. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 it's time investors got what they deserve. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 real help that's there when you need it. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 pricing that leaves you with something to actually invest. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 at schwab, we offer a lot more help for a lot less money. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 because at schwab... tdd# 1-800-345-2550 investors rule. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 are you ready to rule? it all starts with havinglocks 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