system and i'm here to tell you it is well above that value and get into the gulf of mexico, that is concerning for later in the season, it is bath water warm there, about 93 degrees. but notice pretty good agreement within the models that the system will want to hug the northern coast of cuba the next several days. and that will play a role in trying to strengthen this and then eventually end up somewhere around the western coast of florida. but once we get to sunday and monday, there is some wind shear that will try to break it apart and that is another inhibiting factor for tropical systems. so we'll watch that carefully. we think the system should remain weak as a result of that and again, the steering environment is such that it will drive it into that area where wind shear is highest. so if that is the case, this will try to gradually strengthen 40, 50, maybe 60 miles per hour. but with tropical systems, any sort of variation in wind pattern here and steering environment could push it back into the golf and if it goes western side of the golf, it is an entirely different story.