establishment vote it's a 3-1 ratio. it's 65%-25%. there are a couple of factors i can't place either way. so it looks like it's a year where the very conservative vote is going to control the nomination cycle. and then we'll finally have the litmus test. do you really need to be a pure conservative to win or do you need to be more of a bridge builder. so far we're headed down the very conservative path. >> michael smerconish, let's postgame this tomorrow, shall we? >> good deal. >> do not miss, let me remind you again, tonight is the big night. the final republican debate of the year 2015. less than three hours away. only here on cnn beginning this evening at 6:00 eastern live from las vegas. coming up, president obama today taking an indirect shot at donald trump as he welcomed more than two dozen new american citizens. hear what the president said, plus we'll take a look at some of the moments discussed from the last couple of debates. some highlights, some lowlights