getting sharpest challenge from the moderator. it made tv ratings history. tonight get ready for one hell of a sequel. the first round battle i believe should feature trump versus moderator in this case tapper on the record saying he wants to get the candidates fighting with each other. i expect trump to make him eat those words. 11 republican presidential candidates will take the stage less than an hour from now. center stage so far immovable object himself, donald trump. he cemented front runner status and declared war on the entire field. the attack is on his back tonight. next to trump is the guy with the hot hand, dr. ben carson. the retired neurosurgeon surged into a strong second place. then carly fiorina, the only woman in the republican race rallied into primetime. trump has gone after her looks, believe it or not. get ready for fireworks because she has promised a show tonight. and by the way i think she is in an excellent position to make tomorrow's headlines. expect to see fiorina in the words of the head lines tomorrow morning. that's just the start tonight. for the rest things are looking desperate. republicans are in no mood for establishment candidates meaning office holders line rand paul, mike huckabee, marco rubio, ted cruz, jeb bush, scott walker, john kasich and chris christie with in hostile territory with voters. their support is drying up in the polls. if these elected types flunk the test tonight it could mean a one way ticket to the grave yard which rick perry just stumbled in. we have been watching the under card debate featuring four candidates whose campaigns are on life support. rick santorum, bobby jindal and lindsey graham. we will have highlights later in the show. we begin with the primetime show down coming up soon. i am joining by katie turr and with us from new york is republican strategist steve schmidt. i want you to start with this. give me your tout. i think a fight between trump and tapper because tapper made the mistake i believe of giving away his plans. here is tapper saying what his goal is tonight. >> what the team and i have been doing is trying to craft questions that in most cases pit candidates against the other. they are going to want to be talking to the camera and want to get out their talking points. i'm going to try, attempt to get them to address each other and actually debate. >> trump himself is gearing up by going after cnn. he tweeted can you believe cnn is milking it for almost three hours. too long, too many people on the stage. is this going to be another battle between trump and the moderator? >> i think it is. >> everything that donald trump does in this race is designed to convey strength. his motto, his slogan in the campaign, make america great again, it speaks very deeply to the republican electorate that believes that barack obama has succeeded in his mission of transformation and that he has wrecked the country. and the proof points of conservatism no longer are issues. and what trump is doing when he gets in a fight with roger or megyn kelly or doubles down and doesn't back down after his comments on illegal immigration he is saying to a republican electorate that has complete contempt for elected political class of the country saying that i won't bow down. i can't be bought off. and that message of strength you'll see play out tonight in exchanges when he counter punches to other candidates who come at him. it is always a ready applause line in a republican debate to go after the debate moderator or the media. he has been spectacularly successful of that so far in this campaign. >> i think you were the first one to go to war with him. he does seem to like to make noise by going after the person with the mic in their hand. >> if he doesn't like the question he will go after the person who asked the question rather than answering the question or being diplomatic. he will claim the person asking it has an agenda and isn't fair. >> tapper already told him his agenda is to get fishing out there. >> i wouldn't be surprised. they are looking for ratings, as well. ratings will come if they start fighting with each other. donald trump brings ratings. it will be interesting to see him attack the other candidates. >> let's talk about fiorina. i think trump put her in the on deck circle to use a baseball term. he said i don't like your looks which is not a civilized thing to say. he doesn't care about the establishment. it has given her a platform. >> and to her great credit she has made the most of it and the best of it. >> she is in the team now. >> i think of all 17 candidates she has been the one who has out performed everybody's expectations and has made substantive gains in this effort. i think with real voters a poll out tonight has her third in new hampshire. >> so he tried to fire her in apprentice style and he hired her. >> that is effectively what it is. tonight my eye is on her. i think she stands to gain the most and make the biggest move on trump not by going after him but by showing through her answers how ridiculous his answers are. >> how does she do that? >> for example, on immigration she will bring the compassion. she will speak to the issue in a way that shows we can build a wall but what about the people? >> the ones that fly here. >> that's true, too. it's not about the direct attack that you saw with rand paul and chris christie and others. it's like the lion going after the prey. one-on-one the lion is going to win. >> chuck todd joining us. how do you see this tonight? we are ahead of the game. i predict a fight with the moderator and then i think the spot light and headlines are going to be on fiorina. your thoughts? >> i think the way jake is going to set this up is going to be where the candidates go after each other. i don't expect the moderators to be sort of an equal sort of extra candidate on stage the way they were in the fox debate. part of that is because first debates candidates are usually tentative in going after each other. this debate look at ruberubio, walker, christie. these guys, rand paul, they all thought they were top candidates by now. there is a september 30 fundraising deadline. i think you will see desperation and guys trying to go after trump and jeb in particular. i think those are the guys getting the most incoming. trump for obvious reasons but jeb because he is the stand in for all things anti-establishment. don't like washington and don't like bush. i'm with you on fiorina. i think by showing up she is already in the money. i think by showing up she is in the money and will get the great exchange with trump when the moderators set up the whole rolling stone dispargeing comment. she can't win that moment then she doesn't belong on that stage. i think she will win that moment. >> carly fiorina is the only woman on the republican stage tonight grabbing headlines for dealing with trump after he made fun of her face. here is how she responded. >> ladies, look at this face. this is the face of a 61-year-old woman. i am proud of every year and every wrinkle. >> i don't know about this, but it seems to me that all these guys are going to come in with sunday punch shined up with consultants. it will be a big birthday cake and trump will put their face right in it. i tell you they are not original people. they don't think on their feet. he does. i think he will cream them when they come with their big punch. your thoughts? >> i agree. i think the more people who attack him the better it is for him. i think the worse thing for him is if one person went after him and scored significant body blows and other people address the issue. i think there is an air of desperation. walker has to be desperate. chris christie has to look for a hail mary. i think there will be a lot going after him. the more they go after him the more it makes the disenchanted voter say they are going after him. >> he is going to look like travel. nearly every republican candidate out there is itching for a piece of trump tonight. let's watch them. >> donald trump is an entertainer. i am a leader. i think mr. trump will be hearing quite a lot from me. >> when he attacks me personally or disparages my family i'm going to fight back. i hope you would too. >> he is a narcissist. the only thing he believes in is himself. this is a carnival act. >> you want ratings. christie is ratings. total ratings. >> so much fun. >> big, very big. how is that? is that good? >> this is not a game show. it's not a production. it is deciding the most important political office in the world. i don't believe donald trump will be our nominee. >> we make sure everybody knows donald trump you are a fake. >> you think you are their target? >> that's what everybody says. >> let me get back to katie. you watch this guy. does he have a lot of moves or one move? it's basically stand up comedy, put down artist. putting people down. that's funny. putting down the way things are in the country, pretty predictable. is he capable of modulating his act snz. >> it is unclear. it seems he is starting to change up slightly. he is becoming a little more controlled. his speech is the same pretty much every time he gives it except for a few zingers. he is maybe not trying to make unnecessary headlines. he is preparing for this debate. he is starting to treat this like a real campaign. >> is he getting homework? >> i said are you worried about the hewitt interview and this being a foreign policy debate? i asked if they knew the difference between hamas and hezbollah? >> who is the prime minister of england? >> i think if they do that tonight it will blow up in cnn space. i think the audience will boo. >> isn't there a minimal amount of information we expect a president to have? >> a good example was that hewitt when he was talking about the kurds and the fact that if you just let that go it would have been self-evident. if they do that approach it works. >> do candidates worry about the simple information question that shows they don't read the newspaper? are they afraid of that? >> candidates are always nervous being exposed as lacking in one of the qualities that voters look to in deciding for a president. the point is that donald trump has shown so far that he is immune to this. the proof point to donald trump is winning every day. he says i will make america great again. i will go into the room with putin or the chinese or mexican leaders and win. i am going to get the deal and fight for america and fight for the american people and the proof points are the strength that he shows out on the campaign trail every day. we talk about this earlier. i think we are at an inflection moment in the republican party where issues are separating from conservatism. conservatism is an expression. the proof point is the hotness of the rhetoric, the expression of contempt towards the political establishment of the country. we will see playing out on the stage attacks at donald trump. you supported nancy pelosi with a check or hillary clinton and supported this tax increase or that. i don't think it matters anymore. what trump does is he conveys strength and that conveyance of strength is the proof point to the message which is he can make the country great again. he is saying something that republican voters believe that none of the rest of the candidates have the guts to say which is the country isn't great anymore. it's a profound statement and one that is resonating with republican voters. >> sounds like trump can't be outdone in trumpism. chuck todd last thought. >> i think steve brings up a good point. i think it is a huge mistake if these guys go after trump on ideology. the republican party is split now. its rank and file, there is a big large working class vote. they all used to be democrats. trying to attack trump as being an ex-democrat and steve is right, this is not about issues. this is about a style and persona. it's why john boehner is in so much trouble as speaker of the house. it's not an issue. it's his persona and style. he doesn't show strength. >> in fact, we are sitting here in the library dedicated to a franklin roosevelt liberal democrat judged too liberal to be a nominee back in the early '50s. thank you. coming up it's make or break time for some of those second tier candidates. i'm being nice. who thought they would be first tier. what about the desperadoes. how will they shape this race up? after the debate 11:00 eastern tonight join me at the reagan library for a special two hour post game edition of "hardball" right from this room called the spin room. everything here in this room from these chairs tonight. this is "hardball" place for politics live from the reagan library. thank you for having us here tonight. i lost my sight in afghanistan, but it doesn't hold me back. i go through periods where it's hard to sleep at night, and stay awake during the day. non-24 is a circadian rhythm disorder that affects up to 70% of people who are totally blind. talk to your doctor about your symptoms and learn more by calling 844-844-2424. or visit my24info.com. now that's a full weekend. ♪ join in and guess the five stops they made by tweeting #altimaweekendcontest for a chance to win your own weekend adventure! car radio: with our monday morning traffic report... who knows, one of these kids just might be the one. to clean the oceans, to start a movement, or lead a country. it may not be obvious yet, but one of these kids is going to change the world. we just need to make sure she has what she needs. welcome to windows 10. the future starts now for all of us. misswill turn anan asphalt parking lot into a new neighborhood for san franciscans. a vote for "yes" on "d" is definitely a vote for more parks and open space. a vote on proposition "d" is a vote for jobs. campos: no one is being displaced. it's 40% affordable units near the waterfront for regular people. this is just a win-win for our city. i'm behind it 100%. voting yes on "d" is so helpful to so many families in our city. welcome back to "hardball" live from the reagan library for tonight's big republican debate. for many candidates not named trump this is a do or die moment. trump and dr. ben carson claim half. people like bush are in single digits. in new hampshire the latest wbur poll trump in the lead followed by dr. carson. fiorina a few points back. jeb and john kasich tied for fourth. that means there are going to be a lot of candidates on stage tonight in desperate need of a win. what is their strategy from seizing the spot light. robert costas for the washington post and in d.c. former republican from oklahoma surrogate for rand paul. how is rand paul going to get into the fight tonight so that he is somewhere in the lead in the coverage tomorrow? >> well, chris, i think all the polling data, talk to me about or have me on the show about ten days out from the iowa caucuses and i can tell you who is going to win. i think right now the numbers are going to be all over the board. we saw this in 2012. i was involved with the gingrich campaign. we saw five or six different leaders in iowa. we saw newt at 34%. he ended up with 13%. two weeks out rick santorum had 4% or 5% and ended up winning the thing. i think you will see some of these candidates probably continue to drop out as you saw rick perry do. it wouldn't surprise me if we still had about ten candidates going into iowa into the caucus. it is going to be very interesting. these numbers aren't moving me and i don't think they are moving senator paul. >> let me ask the same question. your candidate huckabee numbers as low as bush. they don't like anybody it seems has had a job in government. it's endemic. >> congressman is right. this time in 2012 rick perry was leading the polls. >> why are you debating? >> it is important. >> is this pregaming for a party? is this preseason for a football season? you are saying it doesn't matter? >> every debate and every opportunity to meet -- >> why if you are watching debates they are making these judgments? >> it's still in the early process. >> what judgments are they making? >> right now they are window shopping and comparing and contrasting. >> the pattern is they don't like anybody who has had an office. they like people like fooiorina catching up. they have never been elected to anything. isn't that a pattern? >> right now people at the top of the polls are outside of government. when we start peeling back layers and asking candidates for specifics on where they stand on the issues people want to see someone who has led something before in terms of executive experience. >> that's not what they are doing. they are picking people they can't blame for something. they don't hold -- they hold the people in office responsible. ronald reagan once said i will admit i'm irresponsible when they admit they are responsible. >> reagan ran as an outsider. he was a governor. >> ex-democrat, too. >> people are brushing off trump. i think tonight it is early and i understand all of these arguments about -- >> what else are you going to say when you are behind? it doesn't matter. >> every campaign you talk to you need a moment tonight. you need a breakout moment. >> huckabee going to have a breakout moment? >> in these debates you are not going to win campaign in a debate but you can lose one. we have seen -- >> governor walker is losing. he is going from being a real contender to a two. >> the opportunity to communicate and show your contrast by building organization. >> walker has been canceling events around the country trying to focus in iowa. i think tonight walker is speaking directly to those people in the suburbs of des moines saying i am evangelical and midwestern. >> do you throw the bomb tonight? you have to go to the end zone. i have one or two shots with the announcer i'm going to make my touchdown. do you do that or risk it and throw three yards in the cloud of dust? >> i don't think you try to throw the bomb. i think you probably look to get some 20, 25 yard gains. most football games you are going to have a whole lot more six yard gains than 60 yard gains. that's the reality of it. i think in politics in a presidential election when you are talking about five months away from the iowa caucus there is still a lot of run way out there. so i think being the race isn't going to be given to the swift or strong but to those who will endure. you have to make sure you are organized. i think senator paul is well organized in iowa and in new hampshire. i think organization, continuing to stay the course, talking to people, that's the thing that will win. at the end of the day i have nothing against donald trump but i believe that donald trump when you look he is at 27% and 23% i think the two polls that you showed. chris, there is 7 out of 10 people saying he is not our choice. so when you see this thing dwindle down i think it's more realistic to say let's see what the numbers will be two month said from now and then the sound will mean something at that time. >> with all respect you can't have this wait strategy forever campaign. if you are on the bubble. if you are chris christie and scott walker at 1% and you think you are going to weigh in on the sidelines you might not make the next debate. >> that's fine if they want to do that. all i'm saying is throwing the bomb on every play isn't going to win the game for you. i think you need a steady performance. you don't need to be trying to throw the bomb every play. >> i agree. i think the chief defender will be donald trump jumping up so high in the air he will knock the ball right down again. his greatest strength will be defense. i think he will be ready for it because he has a magical ability to think. most of the other candidates can't do that. last thought to you. >> let me ask you something. i don't think there is anybody on this panel that would sa