Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study : vimarsana.com

Tropical cyclone-specific mortality risks and the periods of concern: A multicountry time-series study

Author summary Why was this study done? Tropical cyclones (TCs), among the most destructive and costliest climate extreme events, are expected to be more intense due to climate change. Despite the widely acknowledged hazards, a consistent and quantitative assessment of the mortality risks of TC across countries is lacking. Such quantitative and comparable evidence across countries is urgently required to better understand the health effects and respond to the potentially increasing hazards. No previous studies have characterized the periods of concern (POC), exposure-response (ER) relationship, and temporal trends of the TC health risks, directly relevant to more precise and effective preparedness and mitigation strategies. What did the researchers do and find? Using mortality data from 494 TC-exposed locations in 18 countries or territories, we quantified the TC-specific mortality risks and POC of the 382 TC events that affected these locations. The ER relationships and temporal trends were then characterized for each country or territory. TC exposure was associated with a prolonged elevated risk of all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, with an overall average POC of around 20 days. The TC mortality risks and POC varied greatly across TC events, locations, and countries. Overall, the mortality risks increased approximately linearly with increasing TC-related maximum sustained windspeed or cumulative rainfall. Most studied countries or territories witnessed a decreasing TC-related mortality risks from 1980 to 2019, especially for the Philippines, Taiwan, and the USA, while potentially increasing TC-related all-cause and cardiovascular mortality risks were observed for Japan. What do these findings mean? TC events can exhibit significant variations in their risk patterns, and future risk assessments may need to better account for this large across-TC variability. Targeted and evidence-based disaster management and preparedness strategies need to be developed for different countries to more effectively mitigate the TC hazards. Key study limitations include potential exposure misclassification errors, residual confounding, and limited generalizability.

Related Keywords

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