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<p>This research brief describes analysis of escalation risks in the war in Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward.</p>
Coordinated deep-strike capabilities—air-launched and ground-launched—will be most effective in degrading Russian forces and operations. Using air and ground launchers would force Russian commanders to devote substantial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to attempt to find these systems.
Any attempt by China to use military force to seize Taiwan would be an immense logistical undertaking requiring moving large quantities of troops and materiel across the Taiwan Strait. What then, are Chinese observers learning from the logistical realm of the war in Ukraine?
Earlier this year, a group of experts from RAND and the Special Competitive Studies Project launched a new wargame effort around China's invasion of Taiwan—but unlike most D.C.-based wargames, this effort heavily involved members of the commercial technology sector, in order to understand what near-term capabilities might be brought to bear on a Taiwan scenario.
This weekly recap focuses on why Ukraine isn’t like World War I, an alternative to student loans, the tech “Cold War" between the United States and China, and more.
The Russians have burned through more of the expected life span of their aircraft more quickly than anticipated. To make up for it, they'll have to procure more aircraft, increase maintenance, reduce operations, or accept a smaller force—or some combination of those.
Since 2014, militant groups from Russia, Belarus, Chechnya, and elsewhere have established themselves as allies of Ukraine in its fight against Russia and its aligned forces. Though alignment with these groups presents clear benefits in the near term, Kyiv should be cautious since these groups could turn on Ukraine at any time should their interests no longer align.
The fundamental drivers of the continuing hostilities in Ukraine could produce a years-long conflict that causes immense human suffering, economic hardship, and international instability. The United States and its allies should begin to try to steer the conflict toward an endgame.
This weekly recap focuses on the potential for a Chinese attack on Taiwan, America's persistent gun violence problem, managing Arctic fisheries, and more.
Russian oligarch turned warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is in exile in Belarus, but what will become of the tens of thousands of fighters who signed up to risk their lives for a paycheck or a ticket out of jail? It seems likely they will continue fighting, mostly because they have few better options.