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Secondary, Processing, VOE, Subservicing; Conventional Conforming News; Affordability Study

Here in Louisville, at AgFirst’s Correspondent Lending Conference, much of the discussion involves going after builder business (“focusing on how fast they get paid so they can pay their subs”), rural programs (“know how to communicate with your clients, or else”), top producer success (“treat your processor like royalty, and fill out the information correctly in the first place,” “set boundaries,” “sell yourself, not rates”) and agriculture. In ag news, the amount of butter the U.S. has in cold storage is down 22 percent compared to a year ago, and the average price of Grade AA Butter is up 80 percent year over year: seasonal milk production is down, there were 11,000 fewer milk-producing cows on U.S. farms compared to a year ago, and dairy products that see seasonal surges like cream cheese and eggnog are eating into supplies of milk that would otherwise go into butter. As butter prices rise, people switch to margarine. In a housing market with high prices and mortgage rates, it is presumed that priced out millennials are largely the target market for build-to-rent single family homes. Affordability is cited as the main reason millennials have not purchased a home. Lastly, speaking of prices, the September Producer Price Index report is tomorrow and is expected to show a 0.1 percent month-to-month drop. The Consumer Price Index comes out Thursday as is expected -.2 percent month over month. Both would be nice, but not enough to dissuade the Fed from another .75 percent increase especially given the tight labor market. (Today’s podcast is available here and features an interview with TMS’s Anthony Forsberg on loss mitigation. This week’s is sponsored by SimpleNexus, the homeownership platform that unites the people, systems, and stages of the mortgage process into one seamless, end-to-end solution that spans engagement, origination, closing and business intelligence. Click here to learn more about SimpleNexus, an nCino company.)

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Private MI, Servicing Testing, Broker Pricing, DPA Products; Conforming Conventional Updates

As rumors of correspondent, wholesale, and retail company cutbacks or closings continue to bounce around our biz, how about this non-mortgage tidbit. During his off hours in New York, Ira S. found yet another fun and fascinating website: a map of the U.S. that one can zoom in/out of, and it will list the resident looked up most on Wikipedia (they had to be born, lived in, or somehow connected to the city). Much less fun is the fact that Capital markets staffs have turned their attention, due to recent rate drops, to renegotiations in the primary markets with LOs and AEs. In the secondary markets, of course, Wall Street firms don’t renegotiate hedge positions. In other words, one can’t call up Morgan Stanley or BAML or Multi-Bank Securities and whine, “Uh, remember that MBS we sold you three weeks ago? Well, rates have moved, and we want a better price or else.” In fact, I’ve even heard nervousness from lenders about margin calls from broker-dealers, especially if we continue to see bond prices rally and rates drop due to an economic slowdown. Will the Fed raise rates too much, dampening consumer spending and increasing the odds of an actual declared recession? Right now employment is still strong, as are family and corporate balance sheets especially after refinancing trillions of dollars of debt in 2020 and 2021. Heck, even fancy coffee places like Starbucks, which reported record revenue yesterday, are seeing increased sales of premium cups of coffee. (Today’s podcast is available here and this week’s is sponsored by Richey May, a recognized leader in providing specialized advisory, audit, tax, technology and other services in the mortgage industry and in banking. Listen to an interview with Seth Sprague on the current mortgage servicing rights (MSR) market.)

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